Australian Open Final Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Andy Murray

“We’ve known each other since [we were] 11, 12. There is only one week difference between us. Very similar game and very similar role to professional tennis.”

Novak Djokovic said yesterday that these were the reasons his relationship with Andy Murray is “very special.” To me, these are also the reasons that their rivalry, despite the fact that this will be the fifth time they’ve faced each other in a Grand Slam final, has only rarely caught fire in the three-out-of-five-set format used at the majors.

Their games, as Djokovic notes, are similar. Each is a defender, runner, and counter-puncher at heart. Which means there’s little to no contrast in their styles; points are often won by attrition, when one of them finally, after much exertion, misfires. This isn’t true when Djokovic or Murray play Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal. Federer’s one-handed backhand and willingness to rush the net, and the fact that Nadal is left-handed and hits with more topspin, are enough to inject a sense of stylistic variety, of cause-and-effect, into the proceedings.

More of an issue, though, are the other two elements that Djokovic notes: He and Murray were born within a week of each other in May 1987; and they have “very similar roles” in the men’s game today. In a sense, they’re too similar. Unlike Federer’s rivalries with the other, younger members of the Big 4, there’s no Oedipal—or Fedipal—dynamic, no champion vs. challenger aspect, no sense that the rise of one man will mean the decline of the other. At 27, these tennis twins who will go on being brothers, and top players, for the foreseeable future.

Part of the reason for that lack of spark is that Djokovic, while he has lost two Grand Slam finals and a bitter semifinal to Murray at the 2012 Olympics, has remained comfortably ahead of him in the rankings and in their head-to-head. The Serb leads the Scot 15-8, a margin that was much closer until 2014, when Djokovic ran off four straight wins over Murray and dropped just one set while he was at it. The Serb has also won seven of their last eight meetings.

But what if Murray can begin 2015 by ending that streak and turning that dynamic on its head? After watching their respective semifinals, some prognosticators have begun to move in his direction. As quoted on the BBC’s website, Mats Wilander says he believes that Murray’s game has never worked together so “harmoniously” as it has over the last two weeks. And Martina Navratilova says, “Andy might be a slight favorite for me.” She thinks he has slimmed down and is moving better, yet hasn’t lost any power and has improved his second serve. And while Navratilova liked what she saw from Murray in his win over Tomas Berdych in the semis, she didn’t like how Djokovic looked in his semifinal win over Stan Wawrinka.

It’s true, Djokovic left the door open for speculation with his passively erratic performance in that match. The only thing to like about it was that he won the fifth set 6-0; something not to like was his brief attempt to grab his lower back at the start of that set. Djokovic didn’t mention it, or seem to be physically constrained at all, but it bears watching in the final. He also played a longer semifinal one night later than Murray did; though as Murray says, in 2012 Djokovic beat him in five hours in the semis, then came back two days later to beat Nadal in six hours in the final.

Still, there’s little reason to think of Djokovic as anything other than the favorite. As noted, he’s won his last four matches against Murray; he’s 4-0 in Aussie Open finals, and he beat Murray without much trouble in two of them; and this year, before the semis, Novak was in the finest form of anyone in the draw.

“I think I have much more positive things to reflect on in my game,” Djokovic said, “and in all the matches I played in the tournament than the negative. Getting to the finals in any way possible is a great achievement. I’m going to use that to build up confidence for the finals.”

Djokovic says he’s been impressed with Murray’s forehand in Australia, and he thinks the court conditions favor his opponent.

“The courts are playing a little bit faster in the last two years than it was in previous years in Rod Laver Arena,” Djokovic said. “Because they are faster, because the ball is bouncing a bit lower, that’s pretty suitable to [Murray's] style of game. He likes that. He has a flat backhand and moves around the court pretty well. So it’s going to be a physical match, no doubt about that.”

As for Murray, he’s one prognosticator who won’t make himself the favorite, or anything remotely close to it.

“I know it’s going to be extremely difficult to win the match tomorrow,” he said on Saturday. “I know if I want to win, it will be very, very tough and challenging physically...It would be a big upset if I manage to win tomorrow.”

A big upset?

“Well, I’ve never won against him here before,” Murray continued. “I think I’ve lost to him the last four or five times we’ve played against each other, as well. Maybe only one set in those matches. I played him a couple times very close the end of last year and lost pretty comfortably. For me, it would be a big turnaround in a few months if I was able to win. I’m not saying it’s not a possibility, but it’s going to be very, very tough.”

We know all about tennis players playing the lowered-expectations game, but doesn’t Murray, by mentioning how many sets he’s lost and how recently he lost them, seem a little more specific than necessary here? I hope he thinks winning is more than a “possibility.”

He should. Navratilova and Wilander are right to be impressed by his form in Oz. He played the men’s match of the tournament in out-gunning Grigor Dimitrov; he fended off half of Australia in deconstructing Nick Kyrgios; and he cooled down a hot-hitting and hot-headed Berdych. Like Djokovic, I’ve enjoyed watching Murray hit his forehand in particular; we know about his running cross-court pass from that side, but in Oz he’s taken the ball on the rise and counter-punched with a deeper, hooking version of that shot. We’ll see if it makes an appearance in the final.

More than that, though, I’ve liked Murray’s fire. He was driven to keep the Aussie crowd out of his match with Kyrgios; and in his match with Berdych, he was driven to to prove that his old coach, Dani Vallverdu, wasn’t better than his new coach, Amelie Mauresmo.

That last element could be the key to this match. Can Murray, when he’s facing his tennis twin, play with the same no-holds-barred desire to prove himself that he showed in his last two rounds? How far will he go to show that Mauresmo was the right choice? Murray has historically not played with that kind of edge against his fellow Big 4 club members. This time it could make the difference.

With all of those factors in mind, though, I’ll take Djokovic, and I’ll let the words he spoke after he beat Murray at the U.S. Open last fall explain why.

“When I get to play Andy,” Djokovic said, “at the Grand Slams especially, where we both try to peak with our performances obviously, I know that the matches are going to go the distance. We’re going to have a lot of long rallies and a lot of exchanges. It’s going to be physical but also mental. I get the feeling that if I get to stay with him and kind of, you know, work, work, and you know, not get too loose and too frustrated with points and not allow him to get into a big lead, I feel like there is a point where I feel that I have that edge, you know, maybe physically. That’s where I always try to focus.”

There will be long exchanges, there will be tight sets and probably tiebreakers, there will be moments when Djokovic has the lead but, as he says, he “makes life complicated for himself” and lets Murray back in. There will hopefully be a show of fire from the Scot. And, even more hopefully, there will be a new spark to this rivalry.

Winner: Novak Djokovic