Australian Open QF Previews: Alexander Zverev vs. Tommy Paul, Gauff vs. Badosa, Sabalenka vs. Pavlyuchenkova

True, it’s just 2-1, and the last time they played was in 2021, before Sabalenka had won a major. But those wins should show Pavlyuchenkova that she can stay with Sabalenka’s game, and that a win over the world No. 1 is within her realm of capability.

That doesn’t mean it’s likely, of course. Sabalenka at 26 is in her prime, while Pavlyuchenkova at 33 is past hers. Sabalenka is also a two-time defending champion at this tournament, and, more important, she just played her best of this year’s edition, a surprisingly one-sided 6-1, 6-2 win over Mirra Andreeva.

Pavlyuchenkova’s strength is her power from both sides. When she came up, few opponents could match it. If anything, though, Sabalenka has taken that power to another level, while also adding spin, weight, and margin that Pavyluchenkova has never had. Winner: Sabalenka

Sabalenka trails Pavlyuchenkova 2-1, though the last time they played was in 2021 before Sabalenka had won a major.

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Coco Gauff vs. Paula Badosa

It seems safe to say that Badosa, who shot up to No. 2 in 2022 and fell back to No. 64 in 2023, is back in the mix. Last summer at the US Open, she made her first Grand Slam quarterfinal in three years; now she’s done it again, a feat that should put her back in the Top 10.

But what does “back” mean in Badosa’s case? It’s still unclear how good she can be. Despite her gaudy career-high No. 2 ranking, she has never made a major semifinal, and her draw so far in Melbourne has been kind. She’s only faced one seed, No. 17 Marta Kostyuk, and she won that match in three sets. Still, when she fell behind 2-5 in the second set to Olga Danilovic in the fourth round, Badosa stayed calm and came back to win it in a tiebreaker. That seems like a good sign.

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But Gauff will be the true test of Badosa 2.0. It could be an interesting one. The head-to-head between the American and the Spaniard is 3-3. Gauff won both of their 2024 meetings, but each of them went three sets.

On a good day, Badosa has a game that could trouble Gauff. Whether it’s with her serve, her forehand, or her two-handed backhand, she hits the ball firmly and aggressively, with a balance of pace, depth, and margin, but without taking wild risks. At 5-foot-11, she’s also tall enough to handle the high-bouncing topspin that Gauff will send her way.

Gauff came to Melbourne as one of the favorites, and she hasn’t done anything here to change that over the past week. She’s dropped one set, to Belinda Bencic, and shanked her share of forehands along the way. But dealing successfully with adversity and winning without your best is never a bad thing. While Coco has tried to be more aggressive, her defense may be key if the day is hot and Badosa is feeling some natural late-Slam nerves. Winner: Badosa

Paul has been to the semis Down Under, and is now a Top 20 fixture, while Zverev finished 2024 at a career-high No. 2.

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Alexander Zverev vs. Tommy Paul

When it comes to American opponents in Grand Slam second weeks, Zverev is probably happy just to see someone other than Taylor Fritz on the other side of the net. Fritz beat him at Wimbledon and the US Open last year; now Zverev will have a crack at Fritz’s friend Tommy Paul.

Zverev and Paul have only played twice, both times on hard courts. The bad news for the German is that he lost each of those matches. The good news is that they took place in 2020 and 2022. Since then, both of these guys have improved, Zverev especially. While Paul has been to the semis Down Under, and is now a Top 20 fixture, Zverev finished 2024 at a career-high No. 2.

Each comes into this match in solid form, and seemingly fit. Since surviving a first-round five-set scare, and a potential shoulder injury, against Chris O’Connell, Paul has looked revived and re-energized, like a man playing with house money. Zverev, meanwhile, he been his usual reliable if unspectacular self, staying well under the radar and dropping just one set.

Zverev has the better serve. Paul is the better athlete. Zverev is rangier and steadier from the ground. Paul is an all-courter who uses his speed to attack and defend. He’ll need to be the guy who makes things happen, who takes chances, who creates openings. That means he’ll have to play a higher-risk game than Zverev, and at the top end of his normal level. But he has seemed up to the task so far. Winner: Paul

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