It’s hard to imagine that a match where one player leads the head-to-head 16-3, and has won 15 of the last 16 meetings, could be considered a toss-up. And if you have money on this match, you probably won't consider it that. By every measure, Novak Djokovic is the favorite in his semifinal with Stan Wawrinka: Djokovic has the higher ranking, he’s playing on his favorite Grand Slam court, he's been in top form during the tournament, and he's the guy with the lopsided lead in the head-to-head. But there persists the thought, at least in my mind, that Wawrinka has an equally good chance of winning.
That’s in large part because of the aforementioned court. Rod Laver Arena is where Djokovic has won four Aussie Open titles, but it’s also where Wawrinka has played him closer than anywhere else. It's also the only place where he's beaten him since 2006.
Two years ago, Stan made his first serious inroads against Novak in a classic fourth-rounder, only to see Djokovic escape 12-10 in the fifth set.
Last year, the two reprised their epic, this time in a quarterfinal won by Wawrinka, 9-7 in the fifth. Djokovic, uncharacteristically, faltered with a lead down the stretch, while Stan, sporting a “fail better” tattoo, said he had finally learned from his many losses to the Big 3. A slightly quicker surface in Laver may have helped the harder-hitting Swiss.
The courts are a little quicker still in Australia this year, and Wawrinka looked comfortable on them in his last match, a surprisingly straightforward straight-set dismissal of Kei Nishikori. Wawrinka's form was erratic after he won in Melbourne last year, and one of his lower moments was a 6-3, 6-0 loss to Djokovic indoors in London in November. But a week after that, inspired by a chance to finally win the Davis Cup, he found his most assertive form again, and it has carried over into 2015—Stan is 9-0 so far this year.
But Djokovic is still Djokovic. Even when he's not the very best version of himself, he usually wins anyway.
Winner: Djokovic