Australian Open Tip Sheet: How we're betting on Karen Khachanov vs. Sebastian Korda

HIGHLIGHTS: Korda's fourth-round win over Hurkacz

We’re into the quarterfinals of the Australian Open now—and with only four matches on today's slate, we're picking them all.

Karen Khachanov vs. Sebastian Korda

In their previous meeting, last October, Korda earned a 7-5, 7-6 (9) win in Antwerp. Considering they combined to play 25 games in a two-set match, it’s hard to envision them not playing at least 40 in a best-of-five. These two also played for three hours and 52 minutes when they clashed at Wimbledon in 2021—there’s just not much that separates them. Both have unique combinations of size, power and mobility, and we see this being another back-and-forth affair. While Korda has the 2-1 edge in head to head, Khachanov has looked a little sharper in Melbourne. Look for both to take at least one set, with this one easily going Over. BEST BET: Over 39.5 Games (-120)

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Jiri Lehecka

Something seems a little off about this line, as the total for Lehecka’s match with Felix Auger-Aliassime was 37.5. It’s a little crazy to think that the oddsmakers have that big of a gap between Tsitsipas and Auger-Aliassime, but we’re willing to test them by playing the Over. Lehecka’s booming serve was the reason we liked him to keep things interesting against Auger-Aliassime, and we don’t think things will be all that different against Tsitsipas. The Greek star likely won’t let as many service games get away as Auger-Aliassime did, but we see there being a tiebreaker or two in this match. And Lehecka has the ability to take one of those breakers, which would allow Over bettors to cash. LEAN: OVER 34.5 (-125)

Jessica Pegula vs. Victoria Azarenka

Pegula was one of our pre-tournament picks to win the Australian Open, and we like her chances of earning a comfortable win over Azarenka. These two met in Guadalajara in October, and Pegula came away with a 7-6 (3), 6-1 win. Azarenka is playing better now, but the same can be said for Pegula. The difference in this one should ultimately be Pegula’s ability to move. The American should be able to chase down more balls than Azarenka, while at the same time moving Vika from side to side. The Belarusian’s biggest advantage in this match-up would normally be her serve, but Pegula is holding at a ridiculous 83.1% to start the 2023 season. LEAN: Pegula -3.5 Games (-140)

Elena Rybakina vs. Jelena Ostapenko

Rybakina is coming off one of the biggest wins of her career, as the 2022 Wimbledon champion earned a 6-4, 6-4 victory over world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. In that match, Rybakina’s elite serving was on full display, and her calmness with the ball on her racquet is what makes this a lopsided match-up. Ostapenko is one of the most talented players on the tour, but she can be a little shaky as a server. If she lets a few sloppy service games get away, this could turn into a quick victory for the ultra-fit Rybakina. LEAN: Rybakina -2.5 Games (-130)