Australian Open Tip Sheet: Tsitsipas is 5-0 against Khachanov. Why we like Karen at +4.5 games

Highlights: Djokovic's quarterfinal win over Rublev

Karen Khachanov vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas

It feels like Khachanov has turned a corner in the last six months, yet no one wants to talk about it. The Russian has now made it to the semifinals of back-to-back majors—and if not for some key points, he could have beaten Casper Ruud to reach the US Open final. Still, that experience should make him stronger.

This head-to-head series is as lopsided as it gets: 5-0, to Tsitsipas. But Tsitsipas hasn’t played this version of Khachanov. The 26-year-old has an 87.2% hold percentage to start the 2023 season, the highest mark of his career. He also has a break percentage of 30.4% this year. Khachanov is putting a lot more balls in play, and he looks confident in baseline exchanges against everyone. That might change a bit against Tsitsipas, who, like Khachanov, is 15-2 in sets in Melbourne.

Khachanov is smart enough to know that he can make Tsitsipas uncomfortable by attacking the Greek star’s sometimes-shaky backhand. We expect him to do that quite a bit, while also handling his business when he has the ball on his racquet. That should be more than enough for Khachanov to cover this generous spread. And despite their head-to-head, it really wouldn’t be all that surprising if he were to win outright. BET: Khachanov +4.5 Games (-125)

Tommy Paul vs. Novak Djokovic

We’ve had some trouble betting on Djokovic throughout this tournament, because the Serbian has been simply masterful. Opponents have had no shot at keeping things close against the nine-time Australian Open champion. How exactly is Paul going to change that?

Sure, Paul has world-class speed and a tremendous backhand, but there isn’t much he’ll be able to do to stifle Djokovic. Novak came out in his last match and constantly attacked world No. 6 Andrey Rublev’s forehand side, which is the Russian’s most dangerous shot. It almost seemed like Djokovic just wanted to prove that he can win matches in the most difficult of ways, and he ended up making Rublev look like a junior. So we don’t see him being afraid to go after Paul’s backhand. And the American’s serve isn’t good enough to keep Djokovic, one of the best returners in the history of the sport, in check.

It wasn’t easy finding a bet on Djokovic that made a lot of sense, as the odds make it tough to back him. We ultimately decided that the best way to go is to bet the Under on Djokovic’s individual game total. It’s -220 to back him to win in straight sets, but you can get more reasonable odds with a 19.5-game spread (only one set could be 7-5 or 7-6). That seems rather likely, as we like his ability to get into Paul’s serve often.

We also have an interesting prop to throw a little money on—can Novak win a point in every return game?—as it doesn’t seem too far-fetched and pays out at great odds. BET: Djokovic Under 19.5 Games (-155) / SPRINKLE (quarter-unit): Djokovic To Win A Point In Every Return Game (+250)