Australian Open Women's Final Best Bets: Three Muguruza v. Kenin plays

All figures from DraftKings Sportsbook

After a tumultuous start—dropping a set to both Shelby Rogers and Ajla Tomljanovic in her first two rounds—Muguruza is on a roll in Melbourne. Back with coach Conchita Martinez, Muguruza has magically transformed into the 2017 version of herself. She came through for us in her routine win over Kiki Bertens, and hardly even celebrated after her semifinal win over Simona Halep— one of the highest quality matches in recent memory. Muguruza’s eyes are fixed firmly on the prize.

Kenin also won her semifinal matchup vs. world No. 1 Ash Barty in straight sets, but scorelines can be deceiving. Barty had both sets on her racquet and inexplicably fumbled them away. All credit to Kenin for her ferocity and fighting spirit, but Barty giftwrapped her this match. Kenin was extremely nervous against Barty, and will likely be even more nervous in the final. The oddsmakers are giving Kenin too much credit; add in Muguruza’s vastly superior Grand Slam experience, and you have one of the strongest plays of the tournament. Bet accordingly.

This prop bet feels like a steal. In her last two matches, Muguruza has hit 16 aces, while Kenin has mustered only two. Muguruza has been serving bombs all tournament, and at 6’0” tall, she has phenomenal range on her return. Kenin has a fine serve, and places it well, but she simply does not hit aces. Muguruza does.

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All signs point to a landslide Muguruza victory, and if you watched both semifinals, you’d understand why. One was not like the other. Barty and Kenin were struggling to put balls in the court during the first set, while Halep and Muguruza put on a tennis masterclass.

ESPN's Pam Shriver asked Alex Kenin, Sofia’s coach and father, how she was feeling before the match with Barty. His response? “Nervous.”

Don’t expect Kenin’s nerves to calm down in her first ever Grand Slam final appearance. By taking under 22.5, a 7-6, 6-3 victory or a 7-5, 6-4 gets the job done.