Back to School

Has the summer break always been this long and languid? Many of the best players haven’t been forced to strike a ball in anger since way back around Wimbledon time. Or am I just noticing it this year because the calendar was jammed together in 2008 to make room for the Olympics? Either way, it’s about time we moved the plot along—there are only so many articles about knees and babies and cocaine-lipped femme fatales that a man can take. At least this time around we shouldn’t have to hear about how brutal and unfair and overloaded the schedule is. Right? No, forget I mentioned it. Some stories are eternal.

This is typically the week when the men take over the U.S. Open Series. And, as usual, the ATP's top four players will make their first appearances in North America over the next day or so in Montreal. But in 2009 they’ll be joined by virtually all of the top women, who are gathering for a newly revamped and prioritized Premier event in Cincinnati. Everyone in the Top 20, save Amelie Mauresmo, is there—plus Kim Clijsters. It’s as a strong a non-Slam field as I can remember on the women’s side. With that in mind, I’ll start my previews with the WTA.

Cincinnati

First Quarter

It seems like so long ago, but it was just last year around this time that Dinara Safina began to make her move toward No. 1 by winning two hard-court titles in the U.S. She’s already surrendered one of those crowns in L.A., where she lost early to Zheng Jie. Nevertheless, the Russian remains at the top of the draw in Cincy. The first seed she might face would be Dominika Cibulkova, whom Safina has straight-setted three times in their only three meetings. The quarters, however, could be interesting. On the other side of this quarter are Kuznetsova and the winner of an all-star match-up between Clijsters and Marion Bartoli that’s scheduled for this evening. Clijsters is a first-class athlete who has generally picked things up quickly after injuries. She’ll be rusty, but she’ll have little to lose. She’ll won’t be used to the pace, especially right out of the gate from Bartoli, but she’s still faster, and a better hitter, than just about anyone around.

Semifinals: Clijsters

Second Quarter

Two weeks ago in Stanford, it seemed like Venus Williams was about to start tearing the tour up after she took the wrecking ball to Sharapova and Dementieva. But this wasn’t Wimbledon, and she couldn’t keep it going all the way to the title. Still, if nothing else Venus showed that she remains as unstoppable as ever on the right day. This week she’s slotted into a quarter that includes Vera Zvonareva, L.A. champion Flavia Pennetta, and defending Cincy champion Nadia Petrova. It’s hard to know who to choose here: Venus is unstoppable one day, and very stoppable the next; Petrova’s most recent match was a dismal 1 and 2 loss to Sharapova in L.A.; Zvonareva seems to have left her best back in Indian Wells (plus she’s 1-6 against Venus); and Pennetta has never gone deep at tournaments consistently.

Semifinals: Venus Williams

Third Quarter

The bold-faced names here are Wozniacki, Dementieva, Ivanovic, and . . . Razzano? Well, the Frenchwoman has had a fine season. The non-bolded names include Cirstea, Wozniak, and Schiavone, each of whom could do some damage. While Dementieva is the most experienced, accomplished, and consistent of them, she has lost to Wozniacki in their last two matches. Is this, at last, time for Woz to make a second, post-Madrid breakthrough at a tournament of significance? I’ve picked here many times before, and she’s always failed me.

First-round match to watch: Qualifier Melanie Oudin vs. still-struggling Ana Ivanovic

Semifinals: Wozniacki

Fourth Quarter

If you follow the (many) tweets that Serena Williams sends out each day, you know she’s been complaining about a cold. Is it serious enough to keep her from advancing past Bammer, Radwanska, Jankovic, and Azarenka to the semis? The only name Serena might feel the slightest twinge of worry about would be Azarenka, who beat her in the Miami final in April. But like her sister, when she’s not at a major it's hard to know what you might get from Serena—she doesn’t specialize in non-Slam events. And Vika, despite a surprising loss last week to Sharapova, seems most likely to pick up the potential slack.

Semifinals: Azarenka

Semifinals: Azarenka d. Wozniacki; V. Williams d. Clijsters

Final: Azarenka d. V. Williams

Montreal

First Quarter

Well, well, look who’s back at the top of the draw? Roger Federer makes his debut as a family man this week. Who dares to end his summer of love? First up might be buddy Stan Wawrinka (also a father-to-be—always in the shadows, Stan is); or sometime nemesis Radek Stepanek. Then there’s Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Gilles Simon, I suppose. Or maybe solid Dudi Sela or even Frank Dancevic of Canada, who has made his usual August reappearance from nowhere. I’d say the guy with the best shot at Federer is Wawrinka, but that’s not an upset I’m going to pick.

Semifinals: Federer

Second Quarter

Andy Murray also returns, not with new knees or new kids, but with a chance, believe it or not, to take over the No. 2 ranking from Nadal. Like Safina, Murray made his move upward at this time last year, so he’ll finally have to deal with the pressure to defend points rather than gain them at will. His quarter is packed with talent, some of it well-used, some of it largely untapped: Davydenko, Monfils, Safin, Hewitt, Gonzalez, Haas, Karlovic, and Chardy are all here. To get through, Murray may have to face down the freshly pesky Lleyton Hewitt and then Davydenko, who has been hot since Wimbledon. The hard-court-loving Aussie, who just lost a third-set tiebreaker to eventual champion del Potro in D.C., could be a tough out.

Semifinals: Hewitt

Third Quarter

Andy Roddick comes in with some tennis, maybe a little too much tennis, under his belt. Novak Djokovic comes in with perhaps not enough—the Serb was last seen playing doubles on clay with his brother and traveling around beautiful Umag. Potentially making life hard for them will be Verdasco, Andreev, Tursunov, Isner, and maybe even Mikhail Youzhny, who as we speak is threatening to go into under head-bashing rage against Marin Cilic—no matter, it seems to be working. Roddick must be disappointed that he lost yet another tight tiebreaker, this time for the D.C. title to del Potro on Sunday, but the trim American looks built for the long haul these days. Djokovic is always capable of surprises—but, as I wondered after Wimbledon, how motivated will he be? It depends on how happy he is with his current situation. As far as I can tell, he seems OK with it at the moment.

Semifinals: Roddick

Fourth Quarter

I was wondering where Juan Martin del Potro would land, and now I know: down at the bottom of the draw with Rafael Nadal. These guys played a nice one in Miami in the spring, and a repeat would be intriguing. Nadal will be shaking off rust and likely some nerves as he makes his way against, possibly, Ferrer, Troicki, Querrey, Petzschner, and Robredo. Meanwhile, del Potro will be trying to recover in time from his three-set win in 120-degree heat yesterday over Roddick. It will be a challenge for both, but if they do rise to it, I’d say the advantage in the quarterfinal would go to del Potro. He’s back on a winning path, and one of these days, that serve, that forehand, and that backhand will, together, be impossible to stop.

Semifinals: Del Potro

Semifinals: Federer d. Hewitt; Del Potro d. Roddick

Final: Del Potro d. Federer

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Enjoy as much of it as you can; there's surprisingly little TV coverage, especially of Cincy, until later in the week.