*Ed. Note: Peter Bodo is on vacation until August 16th. In his absence, we are proud to present commentary by the TW Tribe.
*Last year, in handicapping the women's field just before the U.S. Open, I wrote in my blog about Kim Clijsters' hard court season: "Any other player with this record would have already been crowned U.S. Open champion." I then went on to crown Clijsters the 2005 U.S. Open champion, in what was to be the first accurate grand slam prediction of my adult life.
This year, those who see the Kool-Aid pitcher as half-full will narrow the scope and say that there is nothing about Kim's summer hard court season this year to indicate that she can't or won't repeat in Queens. But what really seems to be true is that Clijsters somehow, in the wake of finally winning a Grand slam, looks even less capable of winning one than before.
Yet, here Clisters is, the favorite. This year, however, that label carries as much prestige as being named the country's smartest village idiot. If Kim can manage to make use of both arms and legs throughout the upcoming two weeks, she's going to be way ahead of the majority of the women who contend for the USO title.
Just as Kim's frail mental constitution put an asterisk next to her "favorite" status last year, the fact that Justine Henin-Hardenne is just plain lame is keeping her from being touted as the one to beat this year (OED defines lame as "injured in the leg or foot" so whine all you want, but I can legitimately call JHH LAME).
Henin has had results this year that rival her break-out 2003 season yet she generates almost no buzz anymore. People who want to sing Justine's praises talk about her guts and determination yet she seems to have handed them over to the virus that sidelined her for most of 2004.
Pre-illness, it was nearly impossible to overlook JHH during a major tournament in 2003. In Australia, Justine was ready to expire from cramps but rallied to beat Davenport. In Paris, she used sleight of hand to turn the crowd and the match against Serena. At Wimbledon, after an injury time-out, JHH upset the player holding that year's first two GS titles. Finally, in New York, Justine pulls the IV tube out of her arm just in time to spoil what was supposed to be Clijster's first Grand Slam.
What do we have (so far) for the 2006 Henin's Heroics column? A stomachache causes the Australian "no mas" incident. Justine's French Open championship is probably the least noticed and written about Grand Slam title since Barbara Jordan won the Australian Open in 1979. Then JHH makes the self-described "courageous" decision to bail on her Fed Cup teammates after losing the final of Wimbledon.
Justine appears to have channeled the unseemly personality traits of both Williams sisters and Martina Hingis this year. If you were in a laboratory trying to create the most unlikeable women's tennis champion of all time, you'd have to give up after watching Henin-Hardenne. After all, how could you surpass Justine? I suppose you could add a manipulative coach and effeminate husband whom she forces to wear blouses while watching her play.
Oh, wait. Never mind..
Meanwhile, Kim Clijsters has spent most of 2006 talking herself down from the #1 spot in the rankings. Kim is quite capable of pulling a Kuznetsova at this year's open and bowing out before the first Friday. So far this year, Clijsters has won just two titles -- Warsaw and Stanford -- while reaching the semifinals at all three majors. However, her list of titles going into New York in 2005 read like a North American travel guide: Indian Wells, Miami, Stanford, Los Angeles, Toronto.
If you think that momentum isn't an important factor, you need to find a tape of Kim's 2005 quarterfinal against Venus Williams. Clijsters was getting her arse kicked all over the court for a set and a half. At that point, Venus showed the slightest sign of fatigue. Kim immediately went after Venus, almost as if she was offended that someone dared to think they could beat her.
The combined forces of confidence and hunger had Kim playing better tennis in 2005 than anyone since Serena Williams in 2002. Sadly, she doesn't seem to have either of those x-factors this year, which is why it's a little depressing to think that Clijsters might be the last player standing on September 9th.
--psquared