Ben Shelton or Frances Tiafoe? Previewing their US Open rematch, in the third round

WATCH: Tennis Channel Live breaks down Shelton vs. Tiafoe ⤴️

Coco Gauff vs. Elina Svitolina

Gauff has won her first two matches 6-2, 6-0, and 6-4, 6-0, but it’s hard to say those victories were as reassuring as the scores might indicate. Both times, in the early going, she has looked tight and unhappy. That was especially true in her second win, over Tatjana Maria, when she double-faulted nine times and made just 47 percent of her first serves. Those numbers were concerning enough to Gauff that she went back out and practiced her serve after the match.

Maria is admittedly an unorthodox, slice-happy opponent—“annoying,” as Coco put it—that can throw you way off your game. That won’t be true with Svitolina, who is a much more typical hard-hitting baseliner with a two-handed backhand. The downside for Gauff is that Svitolina is also a better tennis player. Gauff, who is 1-1 against the Ukrainian, is well aware of that fact.

“She’s really solid from the back,” she says of Svitolina. “When I played her in Auckland [in January], we had a lot of physical points. I think the challenge will be just finding the balance between being aggressive and not letting her dictate, but also not making too many errors.

“Regardless of whatever form she’s in, I think she’s always going to be tough to beat.”

Svitolina’s form at 29 isn’t quite what it was in the recent past, when she was making Grand Slam semis and quarters. She’s ranked 28th, and she hasn’t been past the quarterfinals at any event since she lost to Gauff in three sets in the Auckland final at the start of the season. But she’s still an unusually difficult third-round opponent for a high seed like Gauff.

If Coco has more trouble with her serve, or her forehand, or her nerves, Svitolina could take advantage. But I think knowing that will help Gauff make sure she doesn’t give her a chance. Winner: Gauff

Ben Shelton vs. Frances Tiafoe

The powers that be in U.S. tennis must be exasperated to see this match happen in the third round. Here the host nation has two popular showmen who are playing their best tennis of the season, and who have both reached the semis at the Open the last two years. Now only one of them will make to the fourth round.

On the plus side, at least we get to see them stage a rematch of their quarterfinal from 2023. Shelton doesn’t seem to mind that it’s happening early.

“These are the type of matches that I love, that I live for,” he says. “Being able to do it a little bit earlier in this draw, it still feels the same. Still feels like a huge match and one that I’m really excited for.”

Shelton is probably also looking forward to this match because he’s 2-0 against his countryman, including that four-set win on Ashe 12 months ago. While Tiafoe is quicker, has more variety, and can rapidly turn defense to offense, Shelton’s blistering power has given him the edge. But not by much. Their quarterfinal was essentially decided by a third-set tiebreaker, and they went three sets in their other meeting, in the Houston clay-court final this year.

Tiafoe is in better form now than he was for either of those two matches. With new coach David Witt in his corner, he just made his first Masters 1000 final, in Cincinnati, and he’ll surely do whatever he can not to lose three straight matches, and two straight at the Open, to a younger American.

This match seemed destined for the night session, but they’ll be on second during the day in Ashe. On a hot afternoon, that might benefit the bigger-serving Shelton, but it’s only forecast to be in the low 70s. Good tennis weather. And good tennis-watching weather. Winner: Shelton

Novak Djokovic vs. Alexei Popyrin

The Serb and the Australian are making a habit of meeting at the majors. They played at the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year, and now they’ll face off again in the night session on Friday.

“He keeps on getting closer, knocking on that door,” Djokovic says of Popyrin.

Each of their matches this year went four sets, and each featured a crucial tiebreaker. In Melbourne, it came in the fourth set; at Wimbledon, it came in the third. Djokovic, as expected, won both.

Since then, though, Popyrin has taken another leap upward, by winning his first Masters 1000 title, in Montreal. He also hasn’t dropped a set at the Open so far.

“He’s much better defending, and he’s more consistent,” Djokovic says of Popyrin. “He doesn't make as many errors as he used to. Just overall great improvement from his side. He’s pumped. He’s confident, and he shows that.”

Popyrin plays the modern serve-plus-one game to a T. At 6’5’’, he has a strong serve, and an even stronger forehand that he tries to pummel as often as possible. That should make this a more interesting and dynamic contest than the baseline battles that Djokovic has been in so far this week. Djokovic’s return, in particular, will need to be sharp, and it could make the difference in the match.

Popyrin has a chance. He has the game, and, more important, the belief. But Djokovic has played a lot of opponents like that, and found a way to come out on top anyway. Winner: Djokovic