Best Offense Is a Good Defense

On Tuesday I finished my (belated) Tokyo preview by taking a guess at who the semifinalists would end up being. I mentioned that I should have a better than normal chance of getting at least two of them right, considering that by that stage the tournament had already reached the third round. There were only two matches to go to the semis; what could go wrong? A lot, it turned out. Victoria Azarenka pulled out with dizzy spells, Sam Stosur stunned her lifelong nemesis Maria Sharapova, and Nadia Petrova made one her periodic surges. The only one of my picks who came through was the usually reliable defending champ, Agnieszka Radwanska.

With everything else topsy-turvy, the story of this edition of the Toray Pan Pacific Open, which has been more sparsely attended than I remember from years past, is Radwanska. The number of the tournament so far has been 1900—that’s how many ranking points A-Rad is defending in Tokyo this week and Beijing next week. If she doesn’t win this title, she’ll drop from No. 3 to No. 4, behind Serena Williams. Which probably isn’t the biggest story of the year; as great as Aga is, does anyone think she’s a better player, or has had a better season, than Serena?

Radwanska got some help today from her opponent, Angelique Kerber, who spent most of their match going for broke and coming up empty. Radwanska waltzed past her and into the final, in her gracefully varied way, 6-1, 6-1. While the results have been unpredictable in Tokyo, today’s semifinals had a unifying theme: The losing player started poorly and never gained any belief in herself.

That’s been a theme for years for Sam Stosur, who went out to Petrova, 6-4, 6-2. As Tennis Channel commentator Lindsay Davenport noted, you tend to know how the Aussie is going to play on a certain day after the first couple of games. If she’s off, she can have a hard time working up the confidence that she can turn it around. It was clear early on that Sam’s backhand was misfiring; by the end of the first set, she was hitting slices with it exclusively, and by the middle of the second she had 24 unforced errors overall. Stosur did enough to hold her serve and stay close to Petrova in the first set, but when she finally had a half-chance to break back, at 3-4, 15-30, she missed three routine balls in a row. As the errors piled up in the second set—Sam looked farther and farther out to sea on the backhand side—she shot a few despairing glances at her coach, David Taylor. But Taylor was no help. He was leafing through a notebook by that point. That’s when you know you’re in trouble.

The same was largely true for Kerber. The German had lost to Radwanska in three sets in Tokyo last fall, and in straights in the Wimbledon semis this summer. She came out playing as if those losses were on her mind. Kerber tried for more than she normally does. She went for winners on her returns of serve and on forehands from deep in the court. While she made a few, and while many of the games themselves were long, the percentages were always with Radwanska. By the second set, Kerber was frustrated enough that she gave up on a few rallies before they were over. We’ve seen this before from her when things go south. Kerber can succumb to her frustrations and let negativity get the best of her, to the point where she can appear to be playing the sport sarcastically. She didn’t make it that far today, but she had no answers for her opponent, either.

That opponent, Radwanska, continues to show new sides to her game, new shots, deceptions, and tactics. Most players get more confident with a lead; today Aga got more clever. She fooled Kerber by appearing ready to hit a lob before flipping a cross-court pass instead. She took her forehand on the rise for winners; that shot has been more of a weapon than normal all week. She also began to run into her forehand and take it before it reached the baseline. This is what you’re taught to do on returns of serve—”cut off the angle”—but Radwanska was feeling good enough to try it during baseline rallies. It looked like the equivalent of adding 10 M.P.H. to her shot.

Radwanska will face Petrova in the final. The two haven’t played since 2008. That year they played four times, including in Tokyo, where Petrova won 6-3, 6-0. These are fast courts, and it’s conceivable that the big-swinging Russian could overpower Aga on them. But I’d say it’s more conceivable that the pace will help Radwanska's shots gain the extra pop she needs on them. It’s not an accident that she reached her first Grand Slam final this year on grass, rather than clay or slow hard courts. Either way, it should be an interesting match-up of contrasting styles and personalities.

I haven’t made any correct predictions this week, so I’m probably jinxing Radwanska by picking her. But in a week of chaos, she’s been predictably excellent so far. Maybe it helps to have a lot to defend.