Bet du Jour: Alexei Popyrin vs. Aslan Karatsev, Roland Garros

The Break: All You Need To Know About 2023 Roland Garros

After hitting our Day 1 pick of Karolina Muchova to beat Maria Sakkari, we’re rolling with Aslan Karatsev in his first-round matchup with Alexei Popyrin on Monday. Despite having to go through qualifying, the Russian is the favorite to win this match. And we think the oddsmakers got this one right.

Karatsev comes into this match after having won 13 of his last 15, with all of those matches on clay. His most impressive run came in Madrid, where Karatsev made it all the way to the semifinals. Along the way, Karatsev earned wins over Laslo Djere, Alex de Minaur and Daniil Medvedev, which says a lot about where his game is right now. This is a guy that is fully capable of playing Top 20 tennis when he’s at his best, and it’s clear that he’s close to his peak right now.

Popyrin has made significant strides with his game this season, and he has a chance to win most matches because of his booming first serve. But that’s the only advantage Popyrin has over Karatsev; the Russian is also one of the game’s best returners. He will make Popyrin work way harder in service games than he is used to, and the slow clay in Paris will only aid Karatsev's efforts. If Karatsev can serve well himself, it’s a hard to see how Popyrin finds a way to win this one.

Karatsev is just a far better player from the baseline, and he also knows what it takes to win matches at the Grand Slam level. While it’s easily forgotten, Karatsev made it to the semifinals of the Australian Open in 2021. With that said, he’s more accomplished than people might realize, and his experience should come in handy if this ends up being a little closer than expected.

Laying -150 on a player like Karatsev isn’t exactly ideal, but these odds will feel generous if we get the same version of the player that we have seen in recent months.

Bet: Karatsev To Win (-150)