Australian Open Men's Semifinal Betting Preview: How to attack Djokovic vs. Zverev and Shelton vs. Sinner

On Monday, June 5, Grigor Dimitrov and Alexander Zverev will clash for a spot in the Roland Garros quarterfinals. This portion of the draw opened up when Daniel Altmaier upset Jannik Sinner in the second round. Dimitrov then made quick work of Altmaier, defeating the German in straight sets. Dimitrov hasn’t dropped a single set since the start of this tournament, despite having faced some solid opponents.

I like the Bulgarian to push Zverev, who looked shaky in his win over Frances Tiafoe. That’s why I’m playing the over on the 37.5-game total.

Zverev is 3-1 against Dimitrov, with one of those victories coming on clay. However, three of their four matches (all best-of-three sets) went the distance. And with the way the Bulgarian has looked in Paris, it’s hard not to think he has a shot in this one. He is clearly feeling confident right now; that’s important for the 32-year-old, who has never lacked for talent.

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Expect Zverev to win at least a set or two in this match, but expect him to run into some trouble along the way. His serve completely got away from him against Tiafoe, and it’s hard to see him solving that issue in a matter of days. Zverev had 10 double faults in the match, and it started to take a toll on his first serve, too. If he’s giving Dimitrov consistent break-point opportunities, the Bulgarian should cash in on a few. That should result in Dimitrov winning at least one set in this match. And if he does that, this match should easily go over the total.

It's not hard to envision a scenario in which Zverev goes up early, and then labors a bit later. He looked like he was running out of gas against Tiafoe in the fourth set, which isn’t too shocking considering he hasn’t played deep into a Grand Slam since suffering his brutal ankle injury at last year’s Roland Garros. He might not have the conditioning required for best-of-five tennis right now, which should also give Dimitrov an opening to get this total up—and potentially win.

I flirted with the idea of playing Dimitrov on the moneyline here, but I think the best bet is hoping for a long match. If Zverev can put that Tiafoe match behind him and run Dimitrov off the court, just tip your cap to him and move on.

Bet: Over 37.5 Games (-110)