Bet du Jour: Karen Khachanov vs. Novak Djokovic, Roland Garros

Karen Khachanov is a player nobody really talks about, but he has put together an impressive run of recent results at the majors. The Russian made it to the semifinals of the 2022 US Open, and to the semis at the 2023 Australian Open. Now, Khachanov is one win away from making it three trips in a row to a Slam final four. It might not be likely that he does so, but the fact he’s in this position says a lot about his game. While other non-elite players are prone to early exits, Khachanov has proven that he can consistently go out and perform at a high level.

This season, Khachanov has made clear strides with his game. The 27-year-old’s 67.6% winning percentage this season would be a career high if it were to stick. Khachanov also has the second-highest hold percentage of his career, and he has never broken opponents more often than he has in 2023. On top of that, Khachanov also seems to have flipped a switch mentally, as he is winning close matches more often than usual. Khachanov’s 10-5 record in tiebreakers shows that he is getting more and more comfortable in uncomfortable situations.

The reason all of that is so important is that Djokovic is on a nine-match winning streak against Khachanov, and the Russian hasn’t won a set against the Serbian since April 2018. But this is a different version of Khachanov that we’re seeing right now. He’s very much at the peak of his game, while Djokovic is definitely on a downward trajectory—even if it is a glacially slow one. Djokovic hasn’t lost a single set at Roland Garros just yet, but he also hasn’t faced anyone near Khachanov's caliber. The best opponent Djokovic took on was Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who choked away the opening two sets in that match. An argument can be made that a lot of players would have been up 2-0 if put in the position that Davidovich Fokina was.

With this being Djokovic’s first legitimate test, I see him having a little bit of trouble somewhere along the way. Before the tournament, we all questioned where Djokovic’s game would be in Paris. He had some serious injury and conditioning concerns heading into the event. And while Djokovic has held up so far, he hasn’t exactly done much to completely ward off those concerns. I still think there’s a chance we’d see his level dip if he plays a long, physical match, and I think there’s a slight opening for Khachanov to give him one.

This is also the definition of a trap match, as everybody on the planet is thinking about a possible Nole semifinal against Carlos Alcaraz. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be that stunning if Djokovic were to overlook Khachanov a bit. And making that mistake against a player of his caliber would make life on Djokovic difficult.

Bet: Khachanov To Win A Set (+105)