Bet du Jour: Medvedev loses, leaving value and opportunity in the bottom half of the Roland Garros draw

HIGHLIGHTS: No. 172 Seyboth Wild's win over No. 2 Medvedev

On Tuesday, Thiago Seyboth Wild earned a in the first round at Roland Garros. Medvedev was a -2500 favorite to win that match, and he also had the third-best odds of any player to win this tournament. It was a monumental upset, and one that completely shakes up the bottom half of the draw.

With Medvedev now eliminated, Holger Rune has the best odds of anybody to emerge from this part of the bracket. But I’m somewhat down on Rune’s chances of winning this event, as the 20-year-old remains unproven at this level. Rune has also played a lot of tennis since the start of the 2023 season, and I feel that might catch up to him at some point. He also looked rather pedestrian in a 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (2), 6-2 win over Christopher Eubanks in the first round. Against better competition, will Rune be able to up his game and find a way to break through? Doing it at the Masters 1000 level, is one thing but going deep in a major is a different beast.

I feel similarly about Jannik Sinner, who is now listed at +1000 to win this event. Sinner has legitimate fitness issues at this point in his career, and being able to handle physicality is half the battle in Paris. Sinner has broken down in best-of-three matches, so why should we trust him in best-of-five matches?

With all of that in mind, I’d look to the futures market to put bets down on players like Casper Ruud (+1400), Alexander Zverev (+2200) and Taylor Fritz (+6500)—and possibly even Aslan Karatsev (+13000). Backing any of those players doesn’t necessarily mean you need them to win the whole tournament. If any of them make runs to the semifinals or finals, you should be able to hedge your bets and guarantee yourself a nice chunk of change.

We suggested backing Ruud at +300 to win his quarterm and I also liked him at +1800 to win the event before all the opening-round chaos. But I still like him at +1400. The other players are also looking like great values. Zverev has looked a lot better than you might think in recent months, but Medvedev has been his kryptonite. Well, he won’t have to deal with him anymore. And Fritz just has outrageous odds next to his name right now. The American isn’t known for being a great clay-court player, but he was solid on the dirt in the lead-up to Roland Garros. And Fritz has the power required to hit winners with the heavier balls they're playing with.

As for Karatsev, he’s just worth a dart throw. His upcoming matchup with Frances Tiafoe will be a tough one, but Karatsev is one of the best returners on tour. And he has won 14 of his last 16 matches, so he’s clearly feeling good about his game.

It's not often that you get the opportunity to chase value at a major, but this is the perfect situation to do so. So, don’t be afraid to sprinkle some long shots and hope for a big payout. We have already seen madness with the bottom of the draw, and there’s likely more to come.

BONUS: Clara Tauson ML (-130) over Leylah Fernandez

To try and keep the momentum of our 3-0 Bet du Jour start going, I’m taking Tauson to beat Fernandez. These two met at the 2019 Australian Open, when Tauson earned a 6-4, 6-3 win over Fernandez. That was some time ago, but I think this one could end in a similar result. The Danish up-and-comer had to go through qualifying to get in the main draw of this event, and she then beat up on Aliaksandra Sasnovich, 6-2, 6-0. I just like the weight of Tauson’s shots to make the difference here.

Both players pack some punch from the baseline, but Tauson has a little more behind hers. And that’s extremely important with how slow this tournament is playing. I also think Tauson's ability to play at the net will be a factor here. She should have an easier time winning points than Fernandez, and that’s all you can really ask for.