Big 3 up top, Next Gen down below: Men's 2021 French Open preview

This year’s Roland Garros men’s draw, to borrow a phrase from another Paris story, is a tale of two halves. To put it in simple generational terms, the Big 3—Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer—are in the top half, while most of the Next Gen—Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem—have landed in the bottom. That means this will be a big opportunity for one of the young guys to reach a major final.

But a more significant question remains: Will this draw do anything to make the outcome most of us expect, a 14th title for Rafael Nadal, any less likely? Let’s take a closer look.

First Quarter

Before the draw was made, Djokovic’s coach, Goran Ivansevic, said that he would prefer that his player face Nadal in the semifinals rather than the final. It’s true that Djokovic gave Rafa a five-set run in their only Roland Garros semifinal, in 2013, and that he has never done that well in a final against him. (Djokovic has also beaten Nadal at Roland Garros, in the 2015 quarterfinals.) Either way, though, history won’t be on the Serb’s side: Nadal is 13-0 in French Open finals, but he’s also 13-0 in French Open semifinals. He knows how to peak at the right time in Paris.

More relevant for the moment is Djokovic’s path to the semis. On paper, it looks like a smooth one. He’ll start against Tennys Sandgren; they’ve played three times, and Djokovic has lost one set. The other seeds in this quarter are Ugo Humbert, Alex De Minaur, David Goffin, Matteo Berrettini, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Taylor Fritz and, all the way on the other side, Federer. As it stands now, Federer, who has played one match on clay this year, will likely be happy just to get a couple of wins under his belt. But like Djokovic, his draw doesn’t look overly daunting. The 20-time major champion will start against a qualifier, and the first seed he could face is Fritz.

First-round matches to watch: Yoshihito Nishioka vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga; Goffin vs. Lorenzo Musetti; Auger-Aliassime vs. Andreas Seppi

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Second Quarter

If there was ever going to be a moment when Roland Garros officials did their seedings based on logic rather than the current rankings, it would have been this year. Nadal, a 13-time champion at this event, is the No. 3 seed, behind Medvedev, who happens to be ranked No. 2 in the world at the moment—but who has barely won a match on clay since 2019, complains about the surface constantly, and has laughed at the idea that he could be placed ahead of Rafa in Paris.

But as always, the rankings won out—there was surprisingly little drama about it this year—and Nadal has landed in Djokovic’s half. It’s unlikely to bother Rafa, of course; it might even motivate him to find a higher gear earlier in the tournament than he normally would. Which wouldn’t be a bad thing, because there are some strong players in his draw.

Nadal will start against 21-year-old Australian Alexei Popyrin. At 6’5”, with a two-handed backhand and point-ending power from the baseline, Popyrin would seem to be a player who could trouble Rafa. But when they played in Madrid earlier this month, Nadal won in routine fashion, 6-3, 6-3. After that, Rafa’s road could look like this: Either Hugo Gaston or Richard Gasquet in the second round; Lorenzo Sonego in the third; Jannik Sinner or Gael Monfils in the fourth; and Andrey Rublev or Aslan Karatsev in the quarters. Rafa lost his last match to Rublev, in Monte Carlo, but he specializes in avenging recent defeats at Roland Garrros.

First-round matches to watch: Nadal vs. Popyrin; Gasquet vs. Gaston; Sinner vs. Pierre-Hugues Herbert; Rublev vs. Jan-Lennard Struff...

...and in a war of 37-year-olds, Fernando Verdasco vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber

Semifinalist: Nadal

Third Quarter

Was it just last fall that Thiem beat Zverev in a nerve-shredding five-setter for the US Open title? Instead of gaining confidence from that breakthrough win, Thiem has taken a step back. He lost in the quarters of the fall-edition Roland Garros in October, went out early at the Australian Open, and has struggled to find a semblance of his old clay-court form this spring. If anything, Zverev has been the better player since their meeting in New York. In Madrid, he beat Nadal on his way to the title.

Now Thiem and Zverev are slated to meet in the quarters in Paris. Which is more likely to make it that far? Zverev would seem to have the easier road. He’ll play a qualifier in each of his first two rounds, and the first seed he could face is Dan Evans. Thiem will start against Pablo Andujar and could play Fabio Fognini in the third round, and Casper Ruud in the fourth. Ruud is coming off a title run in Geneva and a semifinal appearance in Monte Carlo.

First-round matches to watch: Ruud vs. Benoit Paire; Thiem vs. Andujar

Semifinalist: Zverev

This year’s Roland Garros men’s draw, to borrow a phrase from another Paris story, is a tale of two halves.

Fourth Quarter

Who should be happiest with his draw in Paris? Tsitsipas is probably the leading candidate. Nadal and Djokovic are in the other half, and Zverev and Thiem are in a different quarter. Which leaves the fifth-seeded Tsitsipas right where he should want to be: In the same section as Medvedev, who has spent the last month telling himself that he can’t play on clay, and proving it. At the same time, Tsitsipas is coming off perhaps the best month of tennis of his career, one in which he won the title in Monte Carlo, reached the final in Barcelona, and pushed Nadal and Djokovic to the limit.

In Paris, Tsitsipas will start against Jeremy Chardy, and then could play Sebastian Korda and John Isner in the second and third rounds. Medvedev, meanwhile, will open against a tricky opponent in Alexander Bublik, and could play Reilly Opelka in the third round. If Medvedev can improve his attitude about clay, he could easily reach the quarters.

First-round matches to watch: A Quisner reunion: Isner vs. Sam Querrey; Frances Tiafoe vs. Steve Johnson; Medvedev vs. Bublik

Semifinalist: Tsitsipas

Semifinals: Nadal d. Djokovic; Tsitsipas d. Zverev

Final: Nadal d. Tsitsipas