The first glance at a Grand Slam draw brings to mind a race track: The names, jammed up against each other, look like long lean horses in their blocks, ready to bolt into the empty triangular lines across the page. It’s a moment of pure anticipation and possibility.
The second glance begins to narrow those possibilities just a bit and reveal a few specifics about who’s going to be racing alongside whom. As that happens, the tournament takes its first shape. What does the 2010 men's Australian Open look like right now, before a ball has been struck? My first reaction as the names came into focus was that this was a draw that did not disappoint. All four sections could potentially give us quarterfinals that could pass for Grand Slam finals, evidence that, at the moment, the Big 4 has grown into the Big 6 (or even 7) on the men’s side. It won't get much better than this.
First Quarter
Here’s another point that becomes very clear very quickly: Roger Federer doesn’t have an easy draw. He opens with Igor Andreev, a guy with a vicious forehand who took him to five sets at the U.S. Open two years ago. And to reach the semifinals, he’ll likely have to get by either the tour’s hottest player, Nikolay Davydenko, or the man who played the best tennis of his career at last season’s Australian Open, Fernando Verdasco. Floating in between these guys are names like Hewitt, Baghdatis and Gulbis, each of whom could take home a prize scalp on a given day.
Could this, at long last, be the end of Federer’s Grand Slam semifinal streak, which has reached the preposterous number 22? (He hasn’t been beaten earlier at a major since Gustavo Kuerten sent him out of Roland Garros in the third round in 2004.) I don’t think so. Yes, Davydenko has beaten him two straight times. Yes, Federer has been taking his lumps lately, ever since hitting that between the legs shot against Novak Djokovic at Flushing Meadows. He’s been inconsistent, he’s lost tight matches, at times his shots have lacked pop, and he’s been beaten twice in a row by two players who had never beaten him before, Davydenko and Juan Martin del Potro. But that’s not really anything new: Away from the Slams, Federer has been in relative decline for a couple of years, but he’s found a way to survive the two-week tests. And how much would he love doing what Pete Sampras did to Andre Agassi at the 1995 U.S. Open and turning the tables on Davydenko when it counts. You wonder what Federer’s motivation can be at this point in his career? You’ve found it right there.
First-round match to watch: Ernests Gulbis vs. Juan Monaco
Sleeper: Marcos Baghdatis
Semifinals: Federer
Second Quarter
Novak Djokovic couldn’t have set it up any better if he’d rigged the whole thing himself. The No. 3 seed is slotted to play an injured Robin Soderling in the quarterfinals. In the round of 16, he's slotted to play perennial Slam punching bag Tommy Robredo. The most dangerous player anywhere near him is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who hasn’t reached the final weekend of a major since doing it in Melbourne two years ago. Still, Jo Willie loves the courts and the atmosphere Down Under, and the fans love him back. A rematch of the 2008 final would make for yet another blockbuster quarter.
But Djokovic looks well positioned. He’s won this tournament before, he was the best player on the tour through most of last fall, and he says he’s learned his lesson about the Australian summer heat since retiring against Andy Roddick last year. This is Nole’s quarter, and maybe his tournament, to lose.
First-round match to watch: Richard Gasquet vs. Mikhail Youzhny
Semifinals: Djokovic
Third Quarter
Fortune is still not smiling on Andy Roddick. The No. 7 seed faces a hard-hitting up-and-comer in Holland’s Thiemo de Bakker in the first round. And across the section from him he can make out the towering presence of No. 4 Juan Martin del Potro in the distance. Closer to Roddick are two other men with guns, Fernando Gonzalez and Sam Querrey.
Del Potro, who has been bothered by a wrist problem, could be challenged by James Blake in the second round, and then either Marin Cilic or Stan Wawrinka, each a dark horse in his own right, in the round of 16. This, with the addition of Roddick in the quarters, will be a serious challenge for del Potro. If he really is hurt, he probably won’t make it out. But he’s still the best player here, and if the tall tank gets rolling, it won’t be stopped.
First-round match to watch: Cilic vs. Fabrice Santoro, who may finally be playing his last major
Semifinals: Del Potro
Fourth Quarter
Just like the top section, the bottom has given us a quarter worth savoring: No. 2 Rafael Nadal vs. No. 5 Andy Murray. There isn’t a whole lot in their way, either. Monfils and, uh, Ferrer on Murray’s side; Stepanek, Karlovic, and the slightly dangerous Isner on Nadal’s.
Both guys come into Melbourne in solid form. Nadal is healthy, and he willed some his old confidence back last week in Doha. A couple wins in Melbourne, where he’s the defending champion, should be enough to make him forget that he couldn’t close the door against Davydenko in the final. Murray arrived in Australia early this year, played some dazzling tennis at the pressure-free Hopman Cup, and should come in as fresh as anyone.
He’ll also come in, unfortunately for him, with a 2-7 record against Nadal. So why do I like Murray in their match-up this time? It will be on hard courts, of course, the only surface where Murray has had any success against the Spaniard. Despite his record, though, Murray has for the most part played with confidence when he’s faced Nadal over the last couple of years. He beat him in the semifinals of the 2008 U.S. Open, and even his most recent loss to him, at Monte Carlo last year, was closer than the straight-set scores would indicate—Nadal was a little scared by it at the time and believed Murray represented the biggest threat to his clay reign. Most important, Murray can hurt Nadal with his two-handed backhand, and he’ll get a chance to dictate a good portion of the rallies. This should allow him to show off more of his skills than he would if he were pinned behind the baseline against a ball-belter. Remember the match these two played Down Under in 2007? No? Let’s hope you’re reminded of it in 2010.
First-round match to watch: Stepanek vs. Karlovic
Semifinals: Murray
Semis: Djokovic d. Federer: I have no ironclad reasoning for picking Djokovic here—going against Federer is always a risk. But I think the Serb’s draw may allow him to conserve his emotions and energy through the first 12 days, to the point where he can come at Federer the way he once did, with guns blazing and family screaming. At the same time, Federer may be coming off a draining match with Davydenko.
Murray d. del Potro: This would be another toss-up. These guys have fought each other tooth and nail before, and while del Potro may be a little hurt, Murray may be trying to recover from a win over Nadal. That would favor the power-hitting del Potro, who, like I said, has the game to win his second straight major. But it would be a lot to expect.
Final: Djokovic d. Murray
Champion: Novak Djokovic