It’s way too late to complain about the schedule at this point, so we might as well revel in the glorious illogic of it all. It’s December, so why wouldn’t tennis hold its final event on clay, a surface the men left behind months ago, and in Barcelona, a place known for hot-weather wars of baseline attrition? Bring it on, is all a fan can say.
Starting tomorrow, Spain will host the Czech Republic in the Davis Cup final. The home country boys are the defending champions, they were born and bred on this surface, and they’ll be sending out the second-best player in the world for two matches. But that doesn’t mean this won’t be an intriguing tie on a couple of levels. The first point of interest is that it could very well be close. The Czechs have two name players and versatile Davis Cup veterans in Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek, neither of whom is at sea on clay, and neither of whom will go in with a whole lot to lose. The second point of interest is Rafael Nadal. For Spain to win, he’ll need to play better than he did when he sunk to a career low point last week in London. It could be a pivotal weekend for Nadal’s future. If he’s conquered on clay, it will be a further blow to his confidence. But if he plays a significant role in a Spanish victory, it will send him out of this season and into the next on a high note. We’ll see what happens, but the scenario reminds me of Roger Federer’s at the Olympics in 2008. He had reached his own low point that summer, after his loss in the Wimbledon final and his early round defeat to James Blake in Beijing. But he revived his game and his confidence by winning a doubles gold medal. It was enough to get him over that Wimbledon loss and get him the very next major, the U.S. Open. Similarly, since his loss at the French Open, Nadal looks as if he's expecting things to go wrong on the court, like he's been punched in the gut and never gotten over it. A win this weekend would help him finally catch his breath.
Tomas Berdych vs. Rafael Nadal
In Rafa’s world, Berdych once played the role of Robin Soderling. A big guy who can take the ball high and hit through the court, he beat Nadal three times in 2005 and 2006, and took him to 6-4 in the third on clay. Since then, Nadal has turned the tables completely, winning the last nine sets, and four matches, that they’ve played. Berdych, a former Top 10 player, has also faded a bit against everyone else—he’s currently ranked 20th and hasn’t been past the quarterfinals of any tournament since the beginning of June. Then again, his one title in 2009 came in Munich, on clay. He has played a lot of tennis this season, but he’s had a couple of weeks off coming to Barcelona.
As for Nadal, there have been murmurs that his knees are still bothering him, which would explain why his mobility seemed to have been reduced at the World Tour Final. But this is the Davis Cup final, and it’s right around the corner from his home. The last time he faced those circumstances, as a teenager in 2004, he played inspired fist-pumping tennis to beat Andy Roddick and set the tone for a Spanish victory. Will the motivation, the adrenaline, and the crowd be enough to make Nadal forget how he’s been playing? It should help him at least get off to a faster start, something he has struggled mightily with in the last few weeks. But he’s going to need some help from Berdych to finish the job.
David Ferrer vs. Radek Stepanek
Davis Cup ties typically produce at least one epic match, and this is as good a candidate as any. Ferrer and the Worm are 3-3 lifetime, 1-1 on clay, and three of their six matches have gone five sets, including the one they played in the third round at Wimbledon this year. Based on the setting and the surface, you might give the edge to the doggedly consistent Ferrer. But based on recent form, you’d go with Stepanek. He played superb all-court tennis to reach the semis in Paris and Basel last month, while Ferrer, who has been plagued by a hamstring problem, hasn’t been out of the second round since August. Stepanek has also had a banner year in DC, going 3-0 in doubles with Berdych, clinching two ties with singles wins, and facing down 78 aces to beat Ivo Karlovic in a six-hour match. But Ferrer has been no Cup slouch, either, winning both of his meaningful singles matches in straight sets, one of which came over Novak Djokovic. It will be Ferrer’s depth and passing shot accuracy versus Stepanek’s ability to approach the net effectively on the slow surface.
Lukas Dlouhy-Jan Hajek vs. Feliciano Lopez-Fernando Verdasco
Is this going to be the team that the Czechs throw out there? I guess it will depend on how the opening day’s singles matches go, because Stepanek and Berdych have played the doubles rubber in the three previous rounds and produced victories each time. Dlouhy is obviously a solid and acceptable second-stringer; more than acceptable, considering that he’s the No. 6 doubles player in the world, and he won the U.S. Open this year with Leander Paes. If Hajek does play, he’s the weak link; this Satellite regular is ranked No. 281 in dubs. On the other side of the net, we know what we’re getting with the long-time team of Lopez and Verdasco. While they were stung by the Americans at home last year, they came up big in the DC final in Argentina and came through with a win over the Germans this season.
Stepanek vs. Nadal
Who's helped more when two guys haven’t faced each other in long time? The baseliner or the all-courter? This match may give us a clue, since Nadal and Stepanek haven’t played since 2005. Will the Worm rattle Rafa with his forays forward, or will Nadal’s topspin send Stepanek’s volleys flying? A lot will depend on what has happened in the previous two days, of course. Nadal may have his confidence restored, or he may be hanging from the ledge. If Stepanek has played singles and doubles, he might be gassed. Either way, I’d love to see this match mean something.
Berdych vs. Ferrer
The farther we look ahead, the more speculative we must be. Depending on how the weekend has gone, Ferrer could be pulled for Verdasco, who clinched the Cup with a career-changing five-set win in 2008. Ferrer would take a 4-2 record in against Berdych; Verdasco is 3-4. A fifth rubber, after a long, emotional, draining weekend? As with the tennis schedule and with Davis Cup in general, all you can do at that point is sit back and enjoy the glorious illogic of it all.
Spain 3-2