Buy, Sell or Hold? Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz

Novak Djokovic

• World No. 1, age 36
• 2024 record: 11-4, two semifinals
• 52-week record: 50-8, 5-1 in finals, including 2023 ATP Finals, US Open, Roland Garros

Paul Annacone, the Tennis Channel analyst and long-tenured former coach of Roger Federer and Pete Sampras, knows some secrets of greatness, which is one reason he isn’t worried that the consensus GOAT and defending Roland Garros champion has played only 15 matches and claimed no honors thus far this year.

“There’s this question mark we haven’t seen in a long time hanging over Novak right now in terms of what his confidence looks like,” Annacone told me recently. “But what I’ve found about great players is that it’s hard for them to really lose confidence. It takes a ton of stuff, probably more than what Djokovic has been dealing with, to make them doubt their readiness.”

There haven’t been many concerns voiced about how Djokovic’s game would hold up against the two hard-charging youngsters in this conversation. But for the first time, his overall fitness has been questioned because in recent matches he sometimes looked sluggish, physically out of sync. This week in Rome—Djokovic's first tournament since Monte Carlo, on April 13—Annacone will be looking beyond his stroke work.

“How’s his energy level, how’s his positivity?” the coach said. “And how’s his level of composure? Those are the important markers for me.”

Djokovic’s struggles were the fruit of lapses in his trademark focus and general alacrity. At his peak, he rarely made unforced errors and hit everything deep, leaving opponents feeling helpless and hopeless.

“That combination makes players panic,” Jimmy Arias, Tennis Director at the IMG Academy and also a broadcast analyst, told me. “But if Djokovic is missing some shots, or leaving some short, then all of a sudden that panic—that feeling you have no chance—goes away. Suddenly, people feel maybe he’s beatable.”

It’s been said often enough, but it always bears repeating. Best-of-five-set tennis is very different from the tour game, and perhaps only Rafael Nadal has benefitted as much as Djokovic from a format that demands almost superhuman sustained focus, stamina, confidence—and on-the-trot problem solving.

“Once it comes to best-of-five, the great ones have a way of figuring it out,” Annacone said. “You’re not just going to beat them because you got hot for a set, set-and-a-half.”

Djokovic clearly feels that he can continue to drop in and out of the game, marshaling his resources, saving his best for the biggest events. But that’s a luxury that may come at a higher price at his age. Eschewing match-play seems risky, although Arias is on the same page as Annacone when it comes to the confidence factor. But Djokovic is still gambling, and he will have a giant bullseye on his back.

The verdict: Sell

Jannik Sinner

• World No. 2, age 22
• 2024 record: 28-2, three titles including Australian Open and Miami Masters (only losses to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Carlos Alcaraz).
• 52-week record: 65-11, 6-1 in finals, including ATP Finals and Canada Masters

It was very deep into an epic, second-round, five-set struggle last year at Roland Garros between Sinner and No. 79 Daniel Altmaier, and the match was driving Arias nuts. Calling the action for the Tennis Channel, Jimmy Arias was stunned at the inability of highly-touted newcomer Jannik Sinner to get away from his color-by-numbers game, to open up the court.

“Altmaier was just back at the fence running, and pushing for five sets,” Arias recalled. “Sinner was unloading ground strokes as hard as he could, but he wasn't able to take Altmaier outside the doubles lines at all.”

A lot has changed in the roughly 12 months since then, with Sinner emerging as the undisputed leader of the ATP pack. Few players who broke through as early as Sinner also improved as much following their breakouts.

Annacone doesn’t believe Sinner is ready to dominate quite yet, but he heaped praise on the player’s mental fitness. “He’s got an unbelievably good champion's mentality. He has great composure. He doesn't get too high or too low, but he competes his ass off. He's one of these quietly ultra-competitive guys, and he seems to deal with winning and losing equally well.”

The advances Sinner made in his game since last fall are highly visible. He’s improved his transition game and willingness to end points at the net. His power baseline game has more variety, more hue and color, than it did as little as 12 months ago. While lean, he’s grown stronger—and it shows.

“If you watch him coming out of the corners,” Annacone said, “his strength and the ability to dig out from defending and to turn his position into offense has gotten way better.”

On top of all that, Sinner’s first serve has more pop (thanks partly to a readjusted stance) and he has shored up a once-vulnerable second serve. Sinner took a huge leap in the crucial second-serve winning percentage department. Ranked 15th on tour in 2022, he leads the field this year with a winning percentage of 59.23% (Alcaraz is fourth, Djokovic ranks sixth).

In style, if not temperament, Sinner is a kindred spirit with Djokovic.

“He's able to cover the court while crushing every ball, and not having to back up much,” Arias said. “Even when he’s defending, it’s from closer in than most players because he’s in balance. And once he gets hold of a ground stroke, whether it's a forehand or a backhand, you're getting pushed around.”

Another way he’s like Djokovic, according to Arias: “It’s not so much that he’s amazing, he just feels methodically great.”

The verdict: Strong Buy

Carlos Alcaraz

• World No. 3, age 21
• 2024 record: 18-5, 1 title, Indian Wells Masters
• 52-week record: 54-15, 3-1 in finals, including Wimbledon and Cincinnati Masters

Perhaps nothing says as much about the ongoing shake-up in the ATP game as the recent history of Carlos Alcaraz. When the young Spanish star snatched the Wimbledon title from Djokovic’s hands in 2023, it looked to many that the game had found a new lodestar. But as the recently completed Madrid Masters got underway, Alcaraz told reporters:

“You know, if Jannik [Sinner] is still playing at this level, he's the favorite in every tournament he goes. I'll try to play my best tennis. I'll try to not let him winning more titles, but it is difficult right now.”

Okay, there’s an outside chance that Alcaraz is trying to escape pressure by heaping it all on Sinner’s shoulders, but it’s certainly been rough sledding for him recently. Injury and missed time (inlcuding—like Sinner—missing this week's Rome Masters) have prevented him from competing with a free spirit. He’s won just one title since his sensational 2023 victory at Wimbledon.

“He’s gotten hurt a few times and I’m a little worried about that because that can really curtail your macro plans for the year and beyond,” Annacone said. “Tennis-wise I’m not really that concerned, but there are things in his game that deserve some attention.”

Alcaraz is the most spectacular shotmaker in tennis. Furthermore, he is also one of its foremost showmen, with a clear love of hitting the kinds of shots that bring a crowd to its feet, chanting his name.

“Sometimes,” Arias said, “it seems like he just has to hit the most ridiculous shot—when just being a little bit solid and within himself is still good enough.”

Talent ensures that Alcaraz can hit every shot in the book, but his overall vision of the game may not not be in sharp focus yet. Annacone would like to see Alcaraz develop a “more clear philosophy and strategy” about how to play his service games, or his identity as a server. Does he want to be an ace machine? A spot server? Kick, slice, or body as the default “must have” second serve?

“Great players who can do many things well still need to adopt a default mode,” Annacone said. “I’m not sure Carlos has defined himself that way yet.”

Perhaps not, but Alcaraz is getting very close. He could use a little luck on the health front, because he’s a fine physical specimen with something dense and presumably durable about his body.

“One of the coolest things about him is his balance,” Arias said. “You can hit an overhead 150 m.p.h. in the corner and think you’ve knocked him off balance, and he still gets there with his back straight, with this big, wide base, in balance. That part of his game amazes me.”

The verdict: Hold