The most important numbers to come out of the Cincinnati quarterfinal between Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych were those in the final score—6-2, 7-6 (3) to Berdych. There were also the winners to unforced errors ratios: Federer 28 to 29, Berdych 30 to 13.
In terms of the match, Berdych overpowered Federer on both sides, with Federer’s forehand breaking down under the onslaught. It was an impressive performance by the Czech, but there is an added element that comes into play whenever they face each other—Berdych was the man across the net when Federer suffered what was probably the most shocking loss of his career, in the second round of the 2004 Athens Olympics, when the virtual unknown beat the world No. 1, 4-6, 7-5, 7-5, in the second round. Federer was the prohibitive favorite to win the gold medal and at the beginning of the four most productive years of his career.
The sheer weight of Berdych's flat groundstrokes are surely the heaviest of any player Federer has faced over the majority of his peak years, with an in-form Nadal being comparable. In 2006, when Federer lost the French Open final to Nadal, he was asked what had been his toughest match beforehand. He said it was a seemingly easy 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 victory over Berdych in the round of 16. That was an indication, in their second meeting after the Olympics, that he still feared Berdych’s brute power.
Though he won eight consecutive matches against Berdych after the 2004 Olympics, in Federer's mind there was probably no player he knew could potentially hit him off the court. The Czech has been so in-and-out over the years, and Federer so consistent, that the Swiss was able to establish a dominance in their head-to-head. But the doubt remained and Berdych, had he not lost a two-set lead to Federer in the round of 16 at the 2009 Australian Open—4-6, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4, 6-2—would now have won four of their last five meetings. Often unfocused and unmotivated against other players, Berdych has been driven and confident against Federer recently. Last summer in Toronto, Federer needed to recover from a 3-5 third-set deficit to beat him, 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (5).
So Berdych is in Federer’s head, and that was visible in the edginess (leading to forehand unforced errors) he showed early in Friday’s match. Federer can, however, take two hopeful things from the loss. First, he knows he will be more confident facing the Czech in the best-of-five format at a Grand Slam. Secondly, Federer had won at least one of the August Masters events in every year but one, dating back to 2004. In that year, 2008, he didn't reach a final in Canada or Cincinnati—just like this year—but he still went on to win the U.S. Open.
A final comment: Federer could have done better than that ‘drive-by’ handshake he offered Berdych at the net after the match.
—Tom Tebbutt