By Pete Bodo
This one is pretty easy: cool in the mornings, with periods of sun mixed with clouds and a 40 per cent chance of light showers. But when that thunder starts to roll in from Spain. . .*Run for your lives, it's women and children first, stay out from under the trees, and if there are any men left, dial 1-800-Save-Us-From-Rafa!*
That's pretty much how it's been for about the past three years, with Rafael Nadal going on perhaps the greatest run of clay-court tennis every put together by a male player. The only guy who might hold his own in that conversation would be Bjorn Borg, whose prowess on red dirt was comparable to Nadal's, but who played in an era that generally had less depth-of-competition, especially on clay. So why should things be any different this year? Well, because things change - maybe not on a predictable or annual basis, but everyone embarking on that red clay road is different from the person and player he was 12 months ago (How Zen is that?).
But seriously, let's look at some of the top clay-court contenders and evaluate their chances in the upcoming season on clay.
No. 1, Rafael Nadal: You know what I'd like to know? Whether Rafa is at that point in life when he can look at the spring clay-circuit in Europe and think: Same crap, different year. How many more danged times do I have to win Monte Carlo? It says a lot for Nadal that he's entitled to think that way, even though he's nowhere near the third stage of greatness, which is when most great players begin to experience the equivalent of metal fatigue, fall prey to ennui, or simply start looking to re-order their priorities as they exhaust their non-renewable mental resources.
This sudden appearance of a blue-chip event in Madrid on the calendar may come at a good time for Nadal, because his indecision about playing the event (the last I heard, my sources said it was "fifty-fifty" that he'd wind up in the Magic Box) introduces an unknown into a scenario ruined only by the fact that it has lacked unknowns. And Nadal is too aware and experienced a competitor not to go on Stage 2 alert when the customary order has been disrupted.
Nadal left Miami enveloped in some mystery, alluding to "personal" issues that may have prevented him from playing his best, most fully focused tennis. I didn't get the chance to write about this before, but I will now: In his quarterfinal loss to Juan Martin del Potro, Nadal seemed mostly to be going through the motions. The sure sign was that his shots lacked their customary depth; most of his groundstrokes landed closer to the service lines than the baseline. That made del Potro look awfully good, much like Andy Roddick made Roger Federer look good in that unfortunate Australian Open semifinal of 2007 (Roddick got just six games).
In Roddick's case, the issue was execution - he fed balls right into Federer's strike zone, begging for punishment that Roger was all too happy to provide..Nadal last week seemed less a victim of over-eagerness or thoughtless impetuousity than distraction. He went through the motions, waving at all those forehands and backhands like a man swatting flies while his mind was on other things. That's what happens when the ideal, total degree-of-focus is absent. You put on a game face and try to make a match of it. But even your most prodigious swing often leaves the ball six or eight feet short of its intended mark.
So Nadal goes onto the clay with unspecified distractions playing on his mind (although they may be banished by the time the first major event [Monte Carlo] rolls around) and some doubts about whether or not he ought to play Madrid, where the high-altitude may be an impediment to ideal preparation for the French Open (there's a mere one-week break between the Madrid Masters event and Roland Garros).
It may seem counter-intuitive, but these two challenges (and it's impossible to quantify the potential impact of the first one) could stimulate Nadal rather than trouble him. His rivals will find themselves thinking, I hope he's just not that into me. . . . But I don't believe Nadal is the type to fall asleep at the switch, so I look for him to have another outstanding year.
No. 2, Roger Federer: He may have been relieved that the hard-court swing is over, but it's hard to imagine how the world's second best player on clay can find a whole lot to get fired up about as the tour moves to clay. There's this little matter of Nadal. Just how many more times does Federer need to lose to Nadal before what was once a wake-up call becomes a requiem? And how does Federer turn around his growing habit of losing interest, or focus, or confidence, or determination, or (fill in the blank) as a match progresses toward crunch-time? And then there's that bad back narrative. . .
I never thought I'd find myself writing this, but the same talented rivals who once were given to thinking, Sheesh, I've got to find a way to stay with this guy before he hits the afterburners. . . can now be justified in thinking, I've just got to stay with him and keep the pressure on, because there's a chance he might crumble.
Federer fans undoubtedly will be outraged to read that. But that's exactly what any ATP guy who's prepared to man-up will be thinking. You might as well get used to it.
However. . .let's remember that one of the nice things about clay is that it gives a player a chance to feel around and find his game. On clay, both in practice and matches, you hit enough balls to get in whatever groove is available to you, and you can get into intimate contact with some of the more artful and delicate weapons at your command. Federer knows how to have a conversation with the ball. Inside every container of tennis balls sit three Mr. Wilsons, or Miss Penns, hoping they'll be extracted from the tube by Federer, thinking, Me talk pretty one day. . .
To me, this clay-court season will tell us something about how much Federer really wants to play, how much he still enjoys what Andre Agassi would describe as "the process." His big enemies will be impatience and a low tolerance for frustration, along with the temptation of skipping work on clay in order to better plot his ultimate revenge in a few months time at Wimbledon.
My feeling is that the impatience will win out.
!Roller No. 3, Novak Djokovic: The Djoker is in a situation comparable to Federer's, if that can be said of a guy who's got one Grand Slam title, a dozen short of Federer. But Djokovic also has far fewer miles on his odometer, and (presumably) greater reserves of ambition, youth and stamina. So the clay season is a great time for him to embark on a makeover of his game, which has gotten stuck in the twilight zone of incertitude. Lately, the guy simply doesn't seem to know what kind of game to play, and whether to attack or dig in and trust his considerable ability to change the direction of the ball, exchange savage groundstrokes, and cover his flanks. I don't think he needs to attack, at least not by the traditional definition (rushing the net). But he does need to be aggressive and to trust his strokes, following where they lead.
In this regard, the nature of clay-court tennis will work in his favor, even though it doesn't exactly reward the most common attack strategies. But the number of balls he'll have to hit may help him get back in touch with the bold quality missing lately from his game. He doesn't have to dive around, spearing volleys, but setting himself up get a ball that he can whale on off either wing in the mid-court will serve the same purpose - which is rekindling his sense of purpose.
With Djokovic, you always have to factor in strange physiological reactions and issues, all of which makes me unwilling to predict that his results will be unpredictable.
No. 4, Andy Murray: He's perhaps the biggest question mark of the clay-court season. According to Djokovic, Murray's ability to transition from defense to offense is as good as that of any player. He's the best counter-puncher since LLeyton Hewitt in is heyday. But if you look at Hewitt's record on clay, you'll see that exploiting those strengths may be harder on clay than any other surface. The transitions just can't be pulled off that quickly, because you know how it is on clay - there's always that extra moment for the other guy when you turn the tables on him; there's always that extra ball to hit.
On the other hand, Murray's quickness and inventive use of court space will enable him to do a lot more than react, and he's superb at mixing up pace and spin. In recent years, Nadal has been able to hit right through guys who have those talents, and Federer has been able to match them, short-angle for short-angle, drop shot for drop shot, and use other elements in his formidable arsenal to end the conversation with Mr. Wilson. But few of those guys have had the range of Murray, or a wingspan that makes it difficult to slide the ball by.
Murray's short-term problem may be motivation and enthusiasm. Given the hard-court season he's just finished, you can understand why he might want to coast a bit, biding his time as he feels around for just the right balance between dictating and exploiting his great skill as a counter-puncher. My feeling is that he'll be more dangerous as the weeks roll on, and use the warm-up tournaments as a way to seek out his best strategy for Paris.
No. 5, Juan Martin del Potro: Delpo doesn't have a single win in a Masters Series on clay; he's strictly a hard court hombre. In three years at Roland Garros, he's won exactly one match. He's got an awful lot of body to lug around in endless clay court matches. On the other hand, he obviously has a chance to pick up a bushel of ranking points if he can win a few matches here and there on clay, so I wouldn't write him off entirely. A guy with a huge serve and groundies can come up big on clay, because the slowness of the surface will enable him to get to more balls, and draw a bead on them, than he might reach on a faster hard court. He could be a pleasant surprise.
Best of the Rest: Jump all over me if you like, but remember that a young Andy Roddick (he's no. 6) leapt onto the tennis radar off of clay courts, and had a pretty nice little run in Paris the first time he played there (2001), taking down Michael Chang in five sets in the second round. Given the way he's ramped up his commitment, and the new pride he takes in his fitness, he could make an impact, especially on the Grand Slam stage, where his abilities as a competitor have the greatest value.
Gilles Simon (no. 7) has RGAS (Roland Garros Aversion Syndrome, a strange disease that afflicts players of French extraction at the French Open). Simon has won exactly one match in four outings at Roland Garros, but hey - they also play in Monaco, Rome, Madrid. . . He's definitely better suited to hard courts, but I wouldn't write him off. Fernando Verdasco (no. 8) has good clay-court credentials, his game is on the upswing, and he should be in nice comfort zone for the next few months. Nikolay Davydenko (no. 9) is still out with injury, and Gael Monfils - no. 10 and a semifinalist at Roland Garros last year - has plenty of potential, but someone needs to remind him that he's not Olivier Rochus - he's 6-4 and packs a wallop, so maybe it's time to junk the rope-a-dope and hit the gas.