Rafael Nadal
A “monster” of expectations: We’re all familiar with that phrase of Roger Federer’s about what his success had created. It definitely fits with what Nadal has done over the last seven years during the clay season. Seven titles in Monte Carlo, six in Barcelona, five in Rome, a couple in Hamburg/Madrid, and six in Paris: No player has dominated this, or any, stretch of the season so thoroughly and for so long.
Last year things went a little differently. For the first time, someone, Novak Djokovic to be exact, was better than he was on the surface, beating him in straight sets in the finals of Madrid and Rome. But it was still a successful clay swing in the end for Nadal, outstanding by any normal measure, and one that Rafa would almost certainly be happy with again in 2012. He won in Monte Carlo, Barcelona, and in the tournament of record, Roland Garros.
Monte Carlo has always been the key, the bulwark. He loves the brand of clay there (it’s similar to the dirt in Paris), and any early season doubts and niggles typically get blown out to sea as he blows out his opponents—he lost just 14 games in five matches there two years ago. This is where Nadal’s best seasons, 2008 and 2010, really began for him. The hope is obviously the same in 2012. Nadal had his periodic knee treatments done in preparation for the long haul between now and the U.S. Open, and didn’t seem overly concerned with his up-and-down play in Indian Wells and Miami.
One problem: Djokovic is also going to be here. If Nadal were to lose to him in the final—and Djokovic would likely be the favorite in that match—how would it affect him? On the other hand, how would it affect Novak if Rafa were to beat him? Both have streaks of seven on the line—Nadal’s seven straight in MC, Djokovic’s seven straight wins over Rafa. Something would have to give. I think a Nadal win would be more significant, because he would finally break Djokovic’s hex, which has been the major storyline of the last year in tennis. At the same time, a Nadal loss in Monte Carlo would also be significant. The bulwark would finally have been knocked down, and the immediate jolt of confidence from a title—he hasn't won a tournament since Roland Garros last year—would be missing.
That’s just the first stop on the clay road for both of them, though, a road that could end with one of the most epic tournaments in tennis history in Paris, where Nole goes for his Slam at the same time that Rafa tries to become the all-time men's winner at Roland Garros. There will also be other complications along the way, such as the presence of Andy Murray and the return of Roger Federer, each of whom beat Nadal the last time they played. But this is still clay, and I don’t see any reason why Rafa won’t be at his best on it again. The question this time is whether someone else will be better.
