Are Coco Gauff, Naomi Osaka or Novak Djokovic in danger at the Australian Open?

Coco Gauff vs. Leylah Fernandez

Gauff will come into this contest unusually prepared. She played Fernandez in her first match of the season, at United Cup last month, a fact that the American knew about for a few weeks beforehand. Not one to shirk her due diligence, she practiced with a couple of lefties during that time to get ready for Fernandez’s spin. It paid off in a 6-3, 6-2 win. Can it pay off in another on Friday?

“We’ll see two days from now,” Gauff says. “Obviously I did well at United Cup. It’s a different match, different story.”

Much like the second-rounder between Emma Raducanu and Amanda Anisimova, this will be a battle between two sneaky-young veterans—Coco is still just 20, Leylah 22. In one of those pro-tour quirks, they had never played until United Cup; now they’ll meet twice in three weeks.

Gauff is the favorite. She has that win from last month. She’s ranked 26 spots higher (No. 3 to No. 29), and she has advantages when it comes to height, physicality and the ability to get free points on her serve. But whenever you play Fernandez, you can’t forget her scintillating run to the 2021 US Open final. She may not show that level of tennis often, but it’s in her somewhere, and Gauff seems to know it.

“She’s going to be aggressive,” she says. “That’s her game. She’s a great mover. She’s going to hit some great shots. Slam finalist and has great results against top players. I expect her to play great tennis.”

Fernandez can have success if she can take Gauff’s topspin early and rush her. But that’s a high-risk style. Coco should be able to stay closer to her comfort zone and be successful. Winner: Gauff

Naomi Osaka vs. Belinda Bencic

Bencic is in the position that Osaka was in 12 months ago: she’s starting a comeback after having her first child. So far, she’s broken out of the gates a little faster than Osaka did last year, coming out of qualifiers to make the round of 16 in Adelaide, and beating 16th seed Jelena Ostapenko in the first round in Melbourne. She’s always been a natural ball-striker, especially with her backhand, and she seems to have found her groove again quickly.

In the past, Bencic has also been comfortable with Osaka and the power she brings. The two have played just once since 2019, but Bencic won three of their four tour-level meetings, and ended one of her US Open title defenses.

I feel good to play her. I think it’s going to be a nice match. Hopefully on a big court. Belida Bencic on her third-rounder with Naomi Osaka

It took a year, but Osaka also seems to be settling into her game with Patrick Mouratoglou in her corner. She has been sharp since her first match of the year, and recorded what may be the best win of her comeback, against Karolina Muchova, on Wednesday. Just as significant, she did it by keeping her head up after losing the first set 6-1.

This third-rounder will pit Osaka’s power against Bencic’s ability to take the ball early and counterpunch. It does sound, as Bencic says, like a “nice match.” Winner: Bencic

Novak Djokovic vs. Tomas Machac

“Another three-hour match, back to back against the youngsters,” Djokovic said after his four-set, second-round win over 21-year-old Jaime Faria, which came two days after his four-set win over a 19-year-old qualifier.

If Djokovic sounds proud of his stamina at 37, he has a right to be. But he’ll likely want to clean up the rest of his game a little against the 24-year-old, 26th-seeded Machac.

The Czech is not only young, he can bash a ball from the baseline with the best of them, including Djokovic. They’ve played twice, both matches have gone three sets, and each man has won once. In the seven months since they last faced each other, Machac has shown even more upside; in Shanghai last October, he outhit and upset Carlos Alcaraz.

Two things may help Djokovic. Traditionally, the third round is when he begins to put his game in cruise control at the Slams. The early, ragged, four-set wins turn into more polished straight-setters. And while Machac is 13 years younger, he’s coming off a long, five-set struggle with Reilly Opelka.

Machac is a dangerous opponent for Djokovic, but I’m not ready to bet on him winning over best of five. Winner: Djokovic