It would have been difficult to imagine during any of last year’s Grand Slams that the women would be competing, drama-wise and depth-wise, with the men any time soon. But a few weeks and one intense little dynamo from Belgium later, the WTA is the talk of Melbourne and the tennis world. While the men have gotten even deeper at the top, the women have done them one better by getting deeper and more chaotic at the same time. It’s going to start early, with a marquee match-up in round two. What else should we expect when all of the world’s best players collide for the first time more than in two years? The unexpected, perhaps?
First Quarter
OK, there’s no surprise on the top line of the draw. That space has been reclaimed, rightfully, by defending champion Serena Williams. Her path is not a cakewalk. She begins with the younger Radwanska, Urszula. She might play the talented Carla Suarez Navarro, who upset her sister here in 2009, in the third round. She could find herself facing home-country favorite Sam Stosur after that, and the quarterfinal could pit her against Vera Zvonareva, Victoria Azarenka—who defeated Serena in Key Biscayne last year—or the struggling 2008 Aussie runner-up, Ana Ivanovic.
Williams was shaky in Sydney, where she barely scraped past Aravane Rezai before being thrashed by Elena Dementieva in the final. Williams’ left knee was bothering her, and that could make her run in Melbourne a painful and laborious one—but she’s survived her share of those in the past. She said after that final that she was ready to go, and the last time she lost to Dementieva in Sydney, 12 months ago, she had her revenge in Melbourne.
Sleeper: Sabine Lisicki
Semifinals: Serena Williams
Second Quarter
Now the question that has tormented us for so long may finally get an answer: Is Caroline Wozniacki for real? She’s the No. 4 seed in Oz, and she’s been given as wide an opening to the semifinals as she could have asked for. Venus Williams is at the bottom of her section; while Venus could certainly overpower Wozniacki if they met, the American has stumbled early Down Under on numerous occasions, and she has to face a fierce basher in Lucie Safarova straight off.
Otherwise, the stiffest competition might come from, um, well, Agnieszka Radwanska? Shahar Peer? Tamira Paszek? Daniela Hantuchova? What year is it in this section, anyway? 2007? Wozniacki’s steadiness and persistence should serve her well on the medium-pace Plexicushion courts. Or will she have trouble hitting the ball through the court? Consider that a new question to torment us this weekend.
First-round match to read out loud: Caroline Wozniacki vs. Aleksandra Wozniak
Semifinals: Wozniacki
Third Quarter
This is where the chaos starts. The top seed in the quarter is Elena Dementieva, but she might be only the third-most-likely player to make it out. She’ll face Justine Henin in the second round, and if she survives that, most likely Kim Clijsters or Svetlana Kuznetsova in the quarters.
Who will stagger out of this quarter of death? Henin is 9-2 against Dementieva, a record that includes three love sets, and she’s an astounding and humiliating 16-2 against Kuznetsova. Clijsters is 11-3 against Dementieva and 7-1 against Kuznetsova. There’s no clearer evidence than these records that the class of the WTA is back. They were meant to come in and take over a section like this one.
Clijsters is ready to go all the way. Is Justine? Based on her performance in Brisbane, where she utterly outclassed Ana Ivanovic and appeared even faster than ever, you have to believe the answer is yes. But is she ready to get past her countrywoman? The answer again is yes; she was two points from doing it last week. But I’m going to take Kim anyway. She may have nearly let that match slip away, but that was only because she dictated the action so thoroughly in the first place.
Semifinals: Clijsters
Fourth Quarter
We come back down to earth in this section. Dinara Safina—do you remember her?—is the top seed, and Jelena Jankovic is on the other side. The bold-faced name in between them belongs to Maria Sharapova.
I would be more confident of Sharapova’s success if she had played a little more to warm-up for this event. But she limited her preparation to a Hong Kong exhibition. She says she’s back to her old service motion, but that doesn’t mean she’ll be back to her old service mind-set, which was once the steeliest aside from the Williams sisters.
As for Safina and Jankovic, maybe the total deflation of pressure compared to last year will help—Dinara, in particular, seemed to suffer under the spotlight. She reached the final in ’09, but she’s been hurt to start this season. All other things being equal, Sharapova is the better player.
Semifinals: Sharapova
Semis: Clijsters d. Sharapova: Kim won their first four matches, Maria their final three. To win, I think Sharapova will have to raise her game farther above her normal than Clijsters will.
S. Williams d. Wozniacki
Final: Clijsters d. S. Williams
It would be the match we’d love to see, and Serena would be out to avenge her tirade-induced loss to Clijsters at Flushing Meadows. But I think Kim is coming into the event in better form. Can she beat Henin, Sharapova, and Serena in one tournament? She has the game; it will be interesting to see if she has the belief.
Champion: Kim Clijsters