by Pete Bodo
Tell you what. Let's not use this tiny window between the end of the the U.S. Open and the Davis Cup semifinals as a time to rage against the Lords of Tennis for the calendar they created, or the special demands of Davis Cup, or the post-major exhaustion so many of us feel. (And if you're grip on the remote is fading and that impression in the pillow is beginning to look like an asteroid hit the couch, imagine how the poor schmoes who actually run around and hit the ball feel!)
Let's thank the fates for ensuring that we may yet get to see another Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic best-of-five match in 2011.
For that's almost sure to happen if Serbia and Spain survive this weekend to meet in the final. The major caveat is that Nadal and Djokovic must lead their respective nations into the final past two nations whose teams are dangerous, and who knows how much gas either star has left in his tank? Can it be just three nights ago that, halfway around the world from where these two warriors now sleep, they played that epic, four-set U.S. Open final that left them both gasping and exhausted?
Much will depend this weekend on how successfully and quickly Nadal and Djokovic can recover from that brusing battle, and that puts a lot more pressure on the No. 2 singles players in each nation. For one of the outstanding qualities of this semifinal—and it's as good a Davis Cup semis line-up as we've seen in a long time—is that there isn't a one-man team in the bunch.
Djokovic or Nadal could head-up a pretty dangerous Davis Cup team even with a mediocre supporting cast; one of the charms of Davis Cup is that a great player can almost win a tie single-handedly—the operative word being "almost." But that's not the case here. With the outstanding exception of Argentina, all of teams are Davis Cup powers. And Argentina just happens to be famous as the best team never to have won the Cup.
So let's look at the two match-ups:
Argentina at Serbia (Belgrade, Indoor Hard): The big question looming tonight is whether or not Djokovic, who is scheduled to open the tie against David Nalbandian, will play the same card he exploited last year, convincing the theoretically "independent" Davis Cup doctor that he's got a legitimate reason for pulling out of the first match (last year, it was a "viral problem"). And it wasn't like Serbia's opponent in 2010 was less menacing; the Serbs hosted the Czech Republic and squeaked out the 3-2 win.
Janko Tipsarevic came up big in that tie as a substitute for Djokovic, winning two matches (including the critical second rubber against Tomas Berdych). In the interim, Tipsarevic has climbed the rankings ladder to No. 13, and he's playing great tennis (he gave his teammate Djokovic all he could handle over two sets before a leg injury forced him to retire from the U.S. Open quarterfinals). Viktor Troicki, Serbia's third singles star, is also in the Top 20, and he's performed well in the pressure-cooker atmosphere that Davis Cup always creates.
Note the photo above: Djokovic wasn't home in time from his U.S. Open win and subsequent media obligations to make the team picture. But perhaps it's all for the best, for Serbia. It's as if Djokovic is subliminally telling them it's time for them to learn to fly.
But there's a big reason Argentina could snatch this thing away, especially if Djokovic doesn't play two singles. That's 6'9" Juan Martin del Potro, who was out of action almost all of last year with a bad wrist but bolted back up to No. 17. Although del Potro slowed down during the U.S. hard-court circuit, where he's traditionally been at his best, he'll feel very comfortable on the Belgrade indoor hard court. And unlike Djokovic, the top Argentine is very well rested, having been off for the entire second week of the U.S. Open.
David Nalbandian, almost 30, is just the third-best ranked Argentine (he's No. 74, a startling fifty places lower than the other singles candidate, Juan Ignacio Chela), but he's been an inspired, highly-committed Davis Cup player for his entire career (perhaps a bit too much; one of the back stories in Argentina is that del Potro has bridled over Nalbandian's role in making decisions usually handled by the coach, captain, or the national federation). Unpredictable at the best of times, Nalbandian would love to end his career with a Davis Cup trophy—ensuring him of a permanent place in the hearts of sporting Argentines.
As always, the Argentine team is mercurial but solid (the fourth man, Juan Monaco is the ATP No. 27). Most important, it's a veteran, frustrated, hungry team. If Djokovic plays possum, the Argentines will make the most of the opportunity. Without Djokovic playing on Day 1, it's a toss-up—at the very best.
France at Spain (Cordoba, Spain, Red Clay): Here's the stunner: French captain Guy Forget, obviously vying for the Shamil Tarpischev Evil Genius award, had decided to hold out his best player—world No. 10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. And that's after losing the services of French No. 1 Gael Monfils (knee injury). It's hard to figure why Forget decided to go with No. 11 Gilles Simon and No. 15 Richard Gasquet. The draw declared that Nadal will open the tie against Gasquet.
Spain would be considered a heavy favorite even if Tsonga were in the line-up, because of the clay surface on which Nadal is utterly dominant and Spanish No. 2 David Ferrer is merely fantastic. Nadal's fitness is the major question on the eve of the tie, but it may not even matter. You probably couldn't come up with an opponent Nadal would rather play than Gasquet (Nadal has won all nine times they've met)—at least not from among comparably talented and ranked players. Gasquet can blast winners—or errors—by the boatload. But Nadal doesn't have be overly concerned about being worn down.
I imagine French captain Guy Forget would sooner see Gilles Simon going up against Nadal in the first match, given Simon's reputation as a guy who will always make you hit more ball (He's also been playing better than Gasquet). But as the French No. 1, Simon can play Nadal only in the fourth rubber, by which time this tie could be over. Tsonga is penciled in to play doubles with Michael Llodra, but the Spanish have a solid doubles team in Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco.
If France is still in the hunt on Sunday, would Forget take advantage of the substitution rule and send Tsonga in to replace one of his two nominated singles players? I suppose there's a good chance of that, especially if Gasquet crashes and burns; perhaps Forget is hoping to use Tsonga as a secret weapon. But why rush to get your back put against the wall? Tsonga may not be a dominant clay-court player, but he's 3-0 in Davis Cup singles matches on clay (and an outstanding 7-1 overall in singles), while Gasquet is 2-2 in clay rubbers and 6-5 overall in singles. Had Tsonga and Simon been the two singles players, it would Nadal vs. Simon in the opening rubber. It just seems like a tougher match for Nadal.
All in all, it looks like Spain pulled the easier assignment in this semi. You can pore over the comprehensive Davis Cup records and news stories here. And here's a final detail for all of you to savor: Should Serbia and Spain advance, the choice of ground for the final will belong to Serbia.
We'll see if Argentina, or France, has anything to say about that. Nadal and Djokovic in Belgrade? As if Rafa doesn't already have enough Serb-induced headaches.