Djokovic vs. Sinner; Alcaraz vs. Medvedev: Are we destined for a Novak vs. Carlitos Wimbledon final?

WATCH: Carlos Alcaraz's Dad "Probably" Filmed Djokovic Practicing—And No, It's "Not An Advantage"

Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner

There has been a major imbalance in attention between these two so far. With Djokovic trying to keep his Grand Slam dreams alive, every match of his is dissected for signs of vulnerability. He hasn’t had to rough it and leave Centre Court once. Sinner, meanwhile, has moved along almost undetected on No. 1 Court; he hasn’t faced a seed or had a scare. But he’s here, at 21, in his first Grand Slam semifinal.

Has Djokovic shown any vulnerability so far? He has been tested three times, by Jordan Thompson in three close sets; by Hubert Hurkacz, who won one set and nearly won two others; and Andrey Rublev, who pushed him through a frenetic four sets. The good news for Djokovic and his fans is that each time his opponent began to take command, Djokovic immediately took it back again.

Djokovic and Sinner played in the Wimbledon quarterfinals last year. Sinner won the first two sets, before Djokovic won the last three. That sounds like it was a close call for Djokovic, but in truth, once he found his range, the match wasn’t particularly competitive. He won the last two sets 6-2, 6-2.

But as Djokovic knows, Sinner is a better player than he was a year ago.

“From both forehand and backhand, he’s smashing the ball really, really hard, trying to be the one that is going to dictate the point from early on,” Djokovic said. “He’s so young, so of course it’s expected that he’s going to improve. He is improving, no doubt, I think with the serve. He’s been serving better. On grass, obviously makes a difference.”

Can Sinner smash his way past Djokovic for three full sets? It’s not impossible, but Djokovic would need to come down a level to lose. That’s not how he usually rolls in Grand Slam semifinals. Winner: Djokovic

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev

The Spaniard and the Russian have played twice, each has won once, and neither match has been close. The question, as far as predictions go, may be: Which of those matches means more on this day? The time they played at Wimbledon, two years ago, and Medvedev won easily? Or the time that played in the Indian Wells final, earlier this year, and Alcaraz won easily?

Both results come with caveats. In 2021, Alcaraz was 18 years old and hard hardly played on grass. This spring, Medvedev was at the end of a long string of wins, and had survived a tough semifinal the day before.

But for me, the Indian Wells match is more relevant. Yes, Medvedev won when they played on grass, and yes, Alcaraz is still learning how to move on the surface. But the Russian isn’t an expert on it, either; he nearly lost to Chris Eubanks on Wednesday. When they played this spring, it was clear that Alcaraz had the upper hand in terms of shot-making; Medvedev struggled to catch up to his mix of pace and spin and location.

Alcaraz typically has at least one peak and valley per match; if he gives Medvedev a chance, can he take it?

Despite that, the intangibles here may go to Medvedev. He really doesn’t want to become a guy who can’t beat Alcaraz. And, if the crowd favors the Spaniard, which it almost surely will, that will likely motivate Medvedev—as long as it doesn’t drive him around the bend. Against Eubanks, he fired a ball into the crowd; on another, unluckier day, that could get him defaulted.

Whatever happened in their previous two matches, this one should be more competitive and interesting. You have Alcaraz’s instinctive attack vs. Medvedev’s measured consistency. Where will Medvedev receive serve? Will Alcaraz go to the drop shot, or charge the net? Alcaraz typically has at least one peak and valley per match; if he gives Medvedev a chance, can he take it?

Writing about Djokovic above, I said that he had answered every challenge so far at Wimbledon. The same can be said for Alcaraz. Nicolas Jarry, Mattero Berrettini and Holger Rune all came out firing early, but Alcaraz turned it around each time. This match will probably be a different and headier affair, and will involve more than one twist in the plot. But I’ll say Alcaraz will twist it his way in the end. Winner: Alcaraz