Doha Semifinal Previews: Swiatek vs. Ostapenko, Anisimova vs. Alexandrova

Iga Swiatek vs. Jelena Ostapenko

“For sure, I think, yeah, she plays well against me,” Swiatek said after her last meeting with Ostapenko, at the 2023 US Open.

It wasn’t a statement that really needed to be made. A few minutes earlier, Ostapenko had run her record against Swiatek to an improbable 4-0, which is where it sits today.

Ostapenko, as we know, goes for broke on virtually every shot, and that barrage of flat pace obviously has an effect on Swiatek. The Pole likes to take long swings, with an extreme Western grip, on her forehand side. But against this opponent, she doesn’t have time. She also likes to control the rallies from the first shot, but against this opponent it’s very difficult to feel like you have control over anything.

“I don’t really know what happened with my game,” Swiatek said after that three-set US Open defeat. “I felt no control suddenly.”

Can Swiatek break the Ostapenko curse on Friday?

It’s hardly a lock, considering how dialed in the Latvian has looked in Doha. She followed a 6-2, 6-2 win over No. 4 seed Jasmine Paolini with another 6-2, 6-2 win over Ons Jabeur in the quarters.

But there are a couple of reasons to like Swiatek’s chances anyway. She obviously loves this court, where she has won 15 straight matches dating back to 2021. And she has faced down a pair of power hitters, Elena Rybakina and Linda Noskova, in her last two matches.

Swiatek looked determined and positive in those wins, especially against Rybakina. I’d expect her to be even more determined, and more motivated, with a chance to prove she can beat a lower-ranked player who has had her number. Winner: Swiatek

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Amanda Anisimova

This is the surprise semifinal. Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, the No. 1 and 3 seeds, respectively, were supposed to be here. Instead we’ll get a duel between an unseeded Russian ranked 26th, and an unseeded American ranked 41st.

Both women have earned the right to be here, of course, especially Alexandrova, who knocked out Sabalenka and sixth-seeded Jessica Pegula in a pair of three-set upsets. And both women have always had more ball-striking talent than their rankings indicated. Anisimova, a former Roland Garros semifinalist, has as much natural power as any WTA player. Alexandrova has one of the best two-handed backhands on a tour that has more than its share of them. The semis of a 1000 is where many of us thought these two would be on a regular basis when they first came up.

They’ve played twice, and each has one win. Anisimova won on this court five years ago, before Alexandrova turned the tables in Madrid in 2022. That’s not a lot to go on. What we do know is that each woman found something early this week, and has kept her momentum rolling through a series of quick-turnaround, back-to-back wins.

As far as hitting the ball goes, Anisimova has the advantage. She’ll decide the majority of the points either with blazingly confident winners or nervously shanked or overcooked errors. Alexandrova, judging by her last two matches, will have the advantage mentally when it comes to winning clutch points and hanging tough when adversity strikes. Anisimova, but contrast, nearly gave away both the second and third sets in her quarterfinal victory over Marta Kostyuk.

Anisimova could overpower a weary Alexandrova and run away with this match. But even when she’s belting the ball brilliantly, Anisimova never entirely leaves her nerves behind. Winner: Alexandrova