Dominic Thiem has set the stage to be front & center at Roland Garros

Watching Dominic Thiem win the Barcelona Open over this past weekend, what struck me above all else was his match-playing maturity and his unmistakable comfort out on the red clay. The earnest Austrian pulled off a rare feat in the semifinals, toppling Rafael Nadal without losing his serve across two first-rate sets, 6-4, 6-4. After accounting for the sport’s all time best clay-court player, Thiem acquitted himself honorably in casting aside the steadily improving Daniil Medvedev, 6-4, 6-0, to secure the title, rallying from 0-3 down in the opening set to sweep 12 of 13 games with a comprehensive display of his talent.

We already knew that Thiem is right up there among the best players in the world on red clay, but his title run in Barcelona reaffirms that he must be regarded as one of the top three candidates to win the upcoming French Open. Clearly, Nadal will be the man to beat. Even if the formidable Spaniard does not win either Madrid or Rome—and thus arrives at Roland Garros without a 2019 clay-court title in his collection—his long record of success at the world’s premier clay-court event makes him the favorite nonetheless. Novak Djokovic has struggled inordinately to rediscover his best brand of tennis since he took apart Nadal to win the Australian Open three months ago for his 15th major, but the fact remains that the Serbian is chasing a fourth Grand Slam title in a row and hoping to realize that astounding feat for the second time in his illustrious career. In my view, he is going to be awfully tough to beat in Paris. The 2016 champion is the second most likely to succeed.

But both Nadal and Djokovic would surely agree that Thiem is more than capable of moving beyond his past exploits and ruling on the surface he loves the most, at a venue he cherishes. Thiem has been in the thick of things three years in a row at the clay-court capitol of the world. In 2016, he reached his first semifinal at a major before Djokovic cut him down ruthlessly on Suzanne Lenglen Court. The following year, Thiem was a semifinalist again, losing on that occasion to an unshakable Nadal. A year ago, Thiem advanced to his first final at a major, but once again Nadal was the decidedly better man on a big occasion, claiming victory in straight sets.

"I've not changed my opinion that Rafa is always the biggest favorite for any clay title," Thiem said in Barcelona. “But I love Roland Garros, for the past three years I've played well. I hope this can continue.

Making it to the latter stages of the French Open three years in a row is abundant proof that Thiem is an authentic threat to oust anyone who crosses his path this time around in Paris. Aside from Nadal and Djokovic, Thiem looms as the single most dangerous competitor in the field, and someone who has earned the growing admiration of his foremost peers and of learned observers from every corner of the globe who have been waiting for him to step forward at a major for a couple of years. The feeling among the cognoscenti of tennis is that this could well be Thiem’s time to stamp his authority on the clay.

Be that as it may, to raise his stock even more and demonstrate irrefutably that he is ready to take the next step in the evolution of his game, Thiem needs to maintain very high standards between now and then. He owes it to himself to put forth a supreme effort in Madrid and Rome, with the notion that he will at least reach a final at one of those Masters 1000 tournaments, and, preferably, prevail over one of those stellar fields.

"I'm thinking next of Madrid [next week]. I go to Madrid playing well, and in a good mood," Thiem said after winning in Barcelona. "But the special thing about tennis is that I will start from zero there. All the guys will be strong. In the matches I must be there from the first point."

Consistency has not been Thiem’s trademark this year, and yet he has celebrated some milestone moments. Not only did he come through so confidently in Barcelona, but he was also a champion at Indian Wells, securing his first career Masters 1000 title on his 41st attempt, fending off none other than Roger Federer in the final. He was two points from defeat in the third set, but eclipsed the Swiss Maestro, 3-6, 6-3, 7-5. That was a massive and morale boosting victory.

But Thiem has also suffered his share of setbacks in 2019, including losses on the dirt against Diego Schwartzman in Buenos Aires, Laslo Djere in Rio de Janeiro and Dusan Lajovic in Monte Carlo. With his potent and purposeful game, Thiem should find more reliability in his results, particularly on the clay. Thiem stations himself well behind the baseline and initiates points from there, which can be dangerous when he faces top-of-the-line adversaries who can get ahead in the points and keep the Austrian on his heels.

And yet, very few players can recover as surely and swiftly as Thiem. He does so with brute forth off both wings and an extraordinary propensity to shift from defense to offense in the blink of an eye. Thiem’s backcourt versatility is remarkable. He can drive through his one-handed topspin backhand freely, but that is not his only option. The beauty of 25-year-old’s biting sliced backhand is how he uses it to break things up.

Meanwhile, his vicious backspin drop shot is astounding. When he goes down the line, he adds some sidespin to make the ball fade away. Nadal was left dumbfounded by the Thiem drop shot at critical junctures in Barcelona; that shot works against everyone. In turn, his serve is better located than ever before. The mixture of his kick serve with thunderbolts has turned Thiem into a more daunting player. He is locating his serve more precisely year by year.

So, as long as he performs reasonably well in Madrid and Rome, the stage is set for Thiem to be front and center in Paris. Nadal and Djokovic will be highly motivated as well. The Spaniard’s competitive appetite is insatiable. In his entire Roland Garros career, he has lost only to Robin Soderling, in 2019; and to Djokovic, in 2015. He is striving for a third crown in a row and a 12th overall on those hallowed grounds. Djokovic is determined to keep his streak at the majors going strong. These two stalwart performers will leave no stone unturned in pursuit of the biggest clay court prize of them all.

But Thiem is a professional through and through. The 25-year-old has made significant strides already this year. For him, Roland Garros will be the ultimate test. He has beaten Nadal once on clay in each of the last four years, but never in a best-of-five-set clash at Paris. Yet, those of us who were there at the US Open last year to witness the Austrian stay toe-to-toe with Nadal before losing 7-6 in the fifth set in the quarterfinal are confident he can hold up physically in a marathon confrontation against the indefatigable Spaniard. He has split two matches with Djokovic at Roland Garros.

Thiem can beat anyone on the red clay, but is more susceptible to an early-round upset than either Nadal or Djokovic. The view here is that the world No. 5, however, will not suffer a surprise defeat and will get his teeth fully into the tournament. He will travel deep into the draw. Beating Nadal and Djokovic back-to-back at Roland Garros is perhaps too tall of an order, but if Thiem only has to confront one of those two icons, he could at last put his name on a trophy at a major tournament.