!Pic by Pete Bodo
NEW YORK—The rain may have stopped the qualifying tournament this morning, and the pending hurricane may wreak havoc with the main event come Monday, but they make the draw indoors and this morning the U.S. Open brackets were filled in, with names missing only from the slots reserved for qualifiers.
The big question coming in, of course, was where Serena Williams (the best female player on the planet but a lowly No. 28 seed) would wind up. Those of you who habitually rue the way Roger Federer ends up on the same half of the draw as Novak Djokovic (I believe the two were slotted for a semifinal meeting 13 times in the last 15 majors) will feel a pang of empathy with and sympathy for Victoria Azarenka, the No. 4 seed who is destined on form to meet Serena in the third round.
It's not that Azarenka has always come opposite Williams, although the two did meet recently in Toronto (Serena won in straights) and on five other occasions (Serena leads the head-to-head, 5-1). It's just that in two of the three previous majors, Azarenka has lost to the eventual champ (Li Na at the French Open and Petra Kvitova at Wimbledon). Azarenka also lost to Li in the round of 16 at the Australian Open. And let's face it, the No. 28 seed is the odds-on favorite to win this final major of 2011.
Incidentally, Rafael Nadal was on hand to draw the numbered chips out of the proverbial hat when it came time to fill in the brackets. He performed admirably, although the job admittedly isn't that complicated. I was amused to see that instead of merely handing the chip to Gayle Bradshaw, so he could match the number to the name on his seeding list and call out the player's name, Rafa quite unncessarily took it upon himself to call out the number each time he pulled a chip.
Whatever else you want to say about Nadal, this little detail suggests that he's got a real team player's instinct. And if agrees to do a job, he'll do it the right way. It's in such little moments that you often get glimpses into a person's basic character.
On the men's side, the trend continues: Federer has now fallen on Djokovic's side of a Grand Slam draw a remarkable 14 of 16 times, and while that's just chance (conspiracy theorists nonwithstanding), I feel it underscores a complaint I've often made, even if addressing it wouldn't have changed the present scenario. If the point of having seeds is to keep the best players from meeting too soon in a tournament, why not go all the way and place at least the top 16 seeds in a way that guarantees that 1 would first meet 16, 2 meet 15, etc. etc. etc.?
In other words, place the seeds so that No. 1 potentially meets No. 4 in one semi, and No. 2 meets No. 3 in the other. Anyway. . . Let's have a little fun and post some quick reactions to the brackets—Steve Tignor will be posting a more conventional analysis of the draws later on.
No. 1 Novak's Quarter, Nutshell Version: It's a cakewalk to the semis for Novak Djokovic: Monfils (seeded No. 7) and Gasquet (No. 13) are gimmes, Tipsarevic (No. 20) is his wingman, and No. 9 Tomas Berdych is a head case. What, you think Fabio Fognini is going to take out the Djoker?
The most dangerous guy for Djokovic may be No. 22 Alexandr Dolgopolov, who can hit stone-cold winners from all over the place and is on a track that puts him up against the No. 1 player in the fourth round. Case closed, see you in the semis, Novak!
No. 1 Caro's Quarter, Nutshell Version: The Gods are good at throwing scraps to the undeserving, which is one reason Daniela Hantuchova might put Caroline Wozniacki out of another major (Hantuchova ousted Wozniacki in the third round at the French Open). This time, they're slated to meet in the fourth round of the U.S. Open. But will either of them survive to that stage?
The errratic, streaky Hantuchova is an ideal spoiler, capable of beating anyone but proven, quality players. Wozniacki is a quality player, or I've always thought she is, but she isn't proven—and that's where her recent poor play and an attendant loss of confidence may be a factor.
Wozniacki may recover from her recent blues to win the title (her history here has been excellent, and that counts for a lot), thereby adding a satisfying element of surprise to the narrative she created as the Slamless No. 1, but it would be foolish to count on that happening. And Hantuchova, Andrea Petkovic (No. 10) and Li Na (No. 6) all are capable of stopping Wozniacki short of the semis.
Trickiest First-Rounder for a Top 8 Player: Two of the Top 8 (Djokovic and No. 6 Robin Soderling) have drawn qualifiers as their first opponents, and among the others, only two men have matches with upset potential: No. 5 David Ferrer vs. Igor Andreev and No. 6 Monfils vs. Grigor Dimitrov.
Given that Andreev has played awfully this summer and that Ferrer is a consumate professional, the most endangered seed is Monfils. Everyone keeps saying that Dimitrov is going to break out one of these days, and this presents him with a perfect opportunity.
On the WTA side, three of the top eight seeds (No. 1 Vera Zvonareva, No. 8 Marion Bartoli and No. 7 Francesca Schiavone) meet qualifers. Among the others, the toughest assignment may belong to No. 6 Li Na, who's been in an extended swoon (4-4) since she won the French Open—much like Li was after she made this year's Australian Open final. Li plays Simona Halep of Romania, who is coming off a great week in Toronto (she qualified and beat Svetlana Kuznetsova in the first round before bowing to Lucie Safarova).
And also this: No. 5 Petra Kvitova is apt to be nervous as well when she meets 49th-ranked Alexandra Dulgheru of Romania. Winning your first major, as Kvitova did at Wimbledon this year, can throw you for a bit of a loop. She's probably still distracted and walking on clouds. Since Wimbledon, Kvitova has played just two events splitting four matches. She got just nine games from Andrea Petkovic in those two losses. Consider her endangered.
!Pic Most Promising First-Round Match: 19-year-old Ryan Harrison plays No. 27 Marin Cilic of Croatia. It's a tough assignment for young Harrison, but Cilic has been up-and-down at Grand Slam events and Harrison has been pulsing on the cusp of a breakout for about a year now. And who can forget that terrible blown opportunity here last year, when Harrison qualified, upset seeded Ivan Ljubicic, and then had match points before losing to Sergiy Stakhovsky?
Among the women, I see a lot of enterainment value in the battle between No. 28 Serena Williams and Bojana Jovanovski, a promising young Serbian player. You know, those Serbs are a pretty confident, aggressive lot as a whole, and they're obviously in a giddy ascent. It may be expecting too much for Jovanovski to upend Serena, but hey—as Justine Henin once said, Impossible is nothing. . . And Jovanovski, just 19, is a coming talent.
Of course, any match that involves the drama queen of tennis is bound to be entertaining, so if you think it's unfair to choose a match featuring Serena Williams, my No. 2 pick is the confrontation bettween Sorana Cristea of Romania and No. 20 Yanina Wickmayer.
Biggest Surprise: Andy Roddick is seeded No. 21. I know he's been playing badly these days, but . . . twenty-one??????
I feel for Roddick, but the computer doesn't lie. And if there's any consolation for him in this situation, it's that he's pretty well assured of being under-the-radar. Roddick has a pretty good draw—he opens against fellow American Michael Russell and could play another countryman (Jack Sock) in the second round. Hail, he might even get Ryan Sweeting in the third round and then have to grapple for a place in the quarters with. . . James Blake. Keep dreaming, Pete. Those days are long gone.
The shocker on the WTA side is that No. 28 Serena Williams was not drawn to play her unseeded sister Venus in the first round (Venus will meet Vesna Dolonts of Russia).
Remind Me to Skip This One: Fernando Verdasco (No. 19) v. Jarkko Nieminen. "Hott Sauce" has cooled of considerably, and is now about as piquant as mayonnaise. And Nieminen's game is actually irritating to watch.
I also have no interest whatsoever in the Kateryna Bondarenko vs. Lucie Hradecka confrontation. As far as I'm concerned, one Bondarenko is more than enough for the tour, although I must say I'd be mildly interested if we had a doubles final with Alona and Kateryna playing against Agnieszka and Urszula Radwanska.
Or I would be, if I didn't have a life. That's all for now—see you all tomorrow!