Howdy. Stealing a little log-in time here during our transition to the new weblog site (we’ll be powered by Typepad, but still folded into the mother ship, Tennis.com) to post some quick notes on the draw, which was just concluded at the UN a short while ago.
In fact, I was asked to pick one of the seeds from the bowels of the women’s trophy as part of the ceremony, and I drew Katarina Srebotnik. So if she goes out and wins the title, you know who blame.
Actually, a comment poster in the last entry asked a very reasonable question about just how the draw is made. I confess that the process has come a long way from the days when they just plopped in the Top 16 seeds, on a alternating, top-half, bottom-half basis, and called it good. For a long time, the No. 3 and 4 seeds were drawn, to determine who would play the No. 1 or 2 seed, respectively. By tradition, the top seed has always has had the No. 1 slot in the draw, and the No. 2 seed the No. 128.
Now, though, with qualifiers, wild cards, and 32 seeds, the actual draw that took place today (among the attendees, America’s Tennis Guest, the former mayor of NYC, David Dinkins) was actually a draw of just 30 names for each of the singles’ draws. That is, a computer randomly placed non-seeded players, Qs and WCs, leaving a Grand Total of 30 slots (the No. 1 and 2 seeds were, of course, pre-determined) to fill – all with seeds.
This was done on a somewhat complex but fair basis, with chips representing groups of players who’s rankings (and thus, seeding positions) are relatively close together placed into the respective singles trophies. As the chips were drawn, one-by-one, and the six or eight players in that group dropped throughout the draw (evenly spaced, top to bottom), the next group was prepared for the silver bucket.
So, basically, a handful of women including Maria Kirilenko, Shahar Peer, Katarina Srebotnik (a dark horse to win the U.S. Open title now!) were all in one group, while another contained Nadia Petrova, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Patty Schnyder and Martina Hingis.
So really, it’s a draw in a very limited way, although Andre Agassi and the back-from-injury Chanda Rubin might beg to differ, as both of them pulled tough assignments. Rubin gets contender Nicole Vaidisova, who’s my dark horse pick to win the title, should Justine Henin-Hardenne or Amelie Mauresmo falter. And Andre gets a winnable match in Andrei Pavel. But the winner of that match gets Marcos Baghdatis who's game matches up very favorably with Agassi's.
Here are my impressions. You can see the draw at U.S. Open website (TK) and weigh in below with your own thoughts:
Men’s Top Quarter:
If, unlike me, you put a lot of emphasis on the easy/draw, tough/draw criteria for judging someone’s performance in a tournament, Roger Federer has the kind of draw in New York that anti-Rafael Nadal KADs accused the Jet Boy of having at Wimbledon.
Can you spell C-A-K-E-W-A-L-K?
Taipei’s Yeu-Tzuoo Wang (Wang Tzuoo Clan?) is the first-rounder, after which The Mighty Fed gets the winner of yet another installment of the Battle of Britain (by now, it seems as hoary as Masterpiece Theater) between Tim Henman and Greg Rusedski. And that’s to play Jonas “It’s Roger’s planet, I’m just renting space in this event” Bjorkman. The lower half of that quarter has Tomas Berdych, blogging superstar Dmitry Tursunov, and the rapidly unraveling James Blake.
Roger will have plenty of time in the first week to go shopping for cool shirts, which is just what he was doing yesterday, if the New York Post’s Page 6 report today is accurate.
Feel the touch. Feel the forehand in your face, fellas!
Men’s Second Quarter:
Okay, your life depends on one of these guys to win a big tennis match: race-car driver and spare-tire carrier David Nalbandian, love machine Tommy Haas, fireman (“spray” rhymes with “play”, no?) Fernando Gonzalez, or Nikolay “Get me Safin!” Davydenko.
What do you do? I say you apply cold barrel of revolver to the temple of choice and get it over, quick.
The guy most likely to emerge from this quarter is Andy Murray, although the hale-if-not-entirely-hearty Scotsman’s track record for grinding on a daily basis is questionable. Robby Ginepri is in that quarter too, and needing a little love these days. I’m liking Olivier Rochus, to tell you the truth. . .
Men’s Third Quarter:
This is the premium quarter, which is Andre Agassi’s misfortune: Pavel to play (probably) Baghdatis and (improbably) Sebastian Grosjean? You may not have to stay up late too many nights during this Open, Andre fans. Also in this quarter: Andy Roddick (fourth round vs. Baghdatis, if he can get past grinders like Alberto Martin, Fernando Verdasco and Mariano Zabaleta).
What is this, Roland Garros? Throw a former Australian Open champ (Tomas Johannson) into the mix for good measure, and that’s just the top half of the quarter!
In the bottom, you have Lleyton Hewitt, Novak Djokovic, Ree-shard Gasquet and Croatia’s premier Rodney Dangerfield channeler, Ivan Ljubicic. So we’re looking at, like, Hewitt (if his knee holds up) vs. Gasquet or Jiffy Ljub in the fourth round, for the privilege of playing Baghdatis or Roddick in the quarters.
Men’s Fourth Quarter:
If Luis Horna wants to make the move up to the Big Time, this is his potential moment of reckoning. All he has to do is get by Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Rafael Nadal, Gael Monfils, Jarkko Niemenen and – bingo – he’s got a made-for-TV quarterfinal with – get this! – Tommy Robredo or even fashion plate Dominik Hrbaty.
Go Luis!
The more conventional way to look at this is: Rafael Nadal runs amok and loses a total of six games enroute to his semifinal with Marcos Baghdatis. I have an idea. How about Jet Boy and TMF going shopping together during Week 1, while Mirka and Xisca have pedicures back at the hotel, then all of them going out for sushi together?
Women's Top Quarter:
This is the hot zone, with wild-card Serena Williams looking at a potential third-rounder with the women’s winner of the U.S. Open Series - and Vaidisova’s greatest rival as New Babe on the Block - Ana Ivanovic. Your fourth round pairings in this one could be Amelie Mauresmo vs. Ivanovic or Williams and Dinara Safina vs. Martina Hingis. This, I think, would be a feast for the tennis geek, and it aint so bad for the celebrity freaks, either.
Women's Second Quarter:
Maria Sharapova opens against Michaella Krajicek (anyone smell upset?), and on form she would meet faltering Mary Pierce, a finalist last year, in the fourth round.
Seems easy, right?
Well, Emilie Loit, a player who can disturb Sharapova with her artful game, is in the upper half, along with the even more threatening Na Li. I love Li's girl’s game, so Sharapova gets my nod as the player with the toughest easy-looking draw of them all. Don’t pencil her into the quarters just yet.
The bottom of that quarter features the International Woman of Mystery, Anastasia Myskina, as well as Tatiana Golovin (big deal) and Nadia Petrova, who woke up one morning suffering from vertigo due to her suddenly high ranking and has done nothing but bleed all over everyone ever since. If Sharapova gets to play the last woman standing in the lower half, she’s a lock for the semis. Don’t make no never mind who that woman is.
Women's Third Quarter:
It looked like a slam dunk semi for Svetlana Kuznetsova when the first seeds were put into place, but as the order was fleshed out, it began to look like anything but. . . The Kuze is looking at Vaidisova in the fourth round, to play the woman who emerges from the bottom of that quarter – that looks like it might be Venus Williams or Elena Dementieva, with the dangerous floater-cum-Aussie-throwback, Sam Stosur in the mix.
Women's Fourth Quarter:
If you like Lindsay Davenport, you love this draw, except for two things: Srebotnik looms as a potential third-rounder, heh-heh-heh, and, even more menacingly, Justine Henin-Hardenne would be her quarterfinal opponent.
This means, essentially, the unless the women come up with their equivalent of, oh, Luis Horna (are we talking Shinobu Asagoe or what?), Justine rolls to Week 2, facing only one woman who’s got the game – and guts – to really stretch her to the limit: Shahar Pe’er, my next favorite off-the-star-radar player after Li.
Oddly, this quarter is strikingly like the men’s bottom quarter, which leads me to say that you could do a lot worse than picking Jet Boy and The Little Backhand That Quit as your champs.
I would do just that, but my aversion to picking the obvious choices stays my hand. Look at it this way: If you pick TMF, Jet Boy, LBTQ or Pez Mauresmo (Push back on that pony tail, out pops a winner!) to triumph, and you’re right, everyone just yawns.
If you pick, oh, Horna and Asagoe, and they win, then you’re a visionary genius and the next thing you know, you’re all over The Tennis Channel.
So my picks, trying to strike a balance while keeping at least one foot rooted in reality, are Baghdatis and Henin-Hardenne, although Viadisova is calling to me. . .
Take it away, buckaroos and buckarettes!