The editors of TENNIS.com predict the group winners and overall champion of the 2011 ATP World Tour Finals in London.
Group A (Djokovic, Murray, Ferrer, Berdych)
!Andy MurrayPeter Bodo: I'm going with Berdych, mainly because I don't believe Djokovic is healthy enough to grind out three tough round-robin matches, and Murray seems to find a way to disappoint the British crowd on a pretty consistent basis. Berdych knows that having Federer and Nadal in the other group while Djokovic is struggling with health issues adds up to enormous opportunity.
Steve Tignor: The consensus is that Murray got a good group draw—no Federer, no Nadal, an ailing Djokovic, and Ferrer, a man he beats regularly. But nothing is that easy at the World Tour Finals. Murray struggles with Berdych, and, hurt or not, Djokovic is still No. 1 in the world. But Murray loves the great indoors, and he's been pointing to this event for months.
Richard Pagliaro: Before dismissing Murray with the old "he can't win the big match" rap, consider that he's 18-1 since the U.S. Open—10-2 indoors—has won four of his last six meetings with top-ranked Djokovic and can channel the home crowd's frantic support to fuel a final run.
Ed McGrogan: Pete's pick of Berdych is tempting, but I think Murray will use his loss to the Czech in Bercy as proper motivation and come out on top. Djokovic is the wild card, of course. Sure, he could win it all, but in his condition it seems more likely that he'll suffer a sizable amount of his 2011 losses at one tournament.
Group B (Nadal, Federer, Tsonga, Fish)
!Roger FedererPeter Bodo: I think Federer will slash his way through this group because his approach to the fall season really paid off. He skipped the entire Asian swing to emerge fresh in Europe, and then got his game and confidence in order by winning the only two events he played since the U.S. Open (Basel and Bercy). He's perfectly primed to defend his title.
Steve Tignor: The five-time season-ending champ will try to make it a record sixth. He won it on these low-bouncing courts last year, and he's coming off two indoor titles in two straight weeks. There's danger here from Rafael Nadal, of course, but Federer should handle his other two opponents, Tsonga and Fish.
Richard Pagliaro: Remember when the year-end event was Federer's stage for audacious shotmaking? He does, and the five-time champion looks ready to reprise his mastery after soaring to his first Paris Masters title. Indoor play inspires Federer's all-court acumen: He is 11-0 indoors this year and riding a 12-match win streak.
Ed McGrogan: No sense overthinking this one: I'll go with the hottest hand, Federer. He just beat Tsonga in Paris and is 3-0 against Nadal at this event (while 5-17 everywhere else). Rafa has an easier opener—against Fish, on his last gills—but Roger should prove mightier than his rival by week's end.
Champion
Peter Bodo:Federer will win the year-end championships, thereby establishing a well-deserved record of six ATP post-season titles. He's been astonishingly consistent, even in a "bad" year like this one, during which he failed to win a Grand Slam title for the first time since 2003. This is Federer's 2011 major.
Steve Tignor:This is certainly no slam-dunk pick. Federer is on a winning streak, but some of the recent shakiness reappeared in the second set of his last match in Paris. And he may have to go through three players ranked above him—Djokovic, Nadal, and Murray—to get there. But Federer loves London, and the crowds there, even when he's facing hometown boy Murray, love him back.
Richard Pagliaro: Resisting the urge to pick a revitalized Roger, I'll back Murray because he's played the best tennis this autumn. If he can find his serve, use his speed offensively, and play with clarity and boldness—rather than the chase and counter—at crunch time, he can lift the London title for the first time.
Ed McGrogan: They played each other 12 times in the last three years, but Federer and Murray haven't crossed paths this season. It could be worth the wait. Call it a hunch, but I think Murray wins a well-deserved year-end title in three sets, ramping up the Fed-is-Dead and It's-Murray's-Time engines one more time.