Ekaterina Alexandrova stuns Aryna Sabalenka in world No. 1's first match since Australian Open final

Sometimes what you did in your last match, or your last tournament, matters more than anything else.

If you compared the rankings and career accomplishments of Aryna Sabalenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova before their second-round match in Doha on Tuesday, Sabalenka looked like the clear, if not quite overwhelming, favorite.

Sabalenka is No. 1 in the world and the owner of three major titles. Alexandrova is 26th, and has made it past the third round at a Grand Slam just once in 31 tries. Sabalenka had also prevailed in their two most recent meetings.

But Alexandrova had one small advantage: She had won the last tournament she had played, two weeks ago in Linz, while Sabalenka had lost her most recent match, to Madison Keys in the Australian Open final.

Maybe a little bit of extra belief in Alexandrova’s mind, and a little bit of extra doubt in Sabalenka’s, made the difference. Because Alexandrova defied most of the metrics and pulled off the upset, in close, dramatic, high-quality fashion, 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 (5), in two hours and 36 minutes.

“It took a lot of energy and focus,” an elated Alexandrova said. “It was difficult to try to keep [my level] the same as her for two and a half hours.”

But that’s where Alexandrova kept herself: Dead even against the best player and biggest hitter in the world.

When one of them fired off a blazing return, or powered a ground stroke into the corner for a winner, her opponent answered by doing the same. When one of them appeared to have grabbed the momentum, the other grabbed it back right away.

When the top seed looked ready to restore order and assert her authority, Alexandrova defied her.

Sabalenka led 2-0 and 4-2 in the third set, and was two points from the win at one stage. Each time Alexandrova found a level she hadn’t shown before, and a shot that you might not have thought was in her arsenal.

In the end, though, Alexandrova won by hanging on for dear life.

Up 6-3 in the final-set tiebreaker—with three match points—she could only watch as Sabalenka tore off a forehand winner and a volley winner to make it 5-6. For a second, as her strong first serve sent Alexandrova lunging wide, it looked as if Sabalenka had leveled at 6-6.

But Alexandrova got her racquet on it. Her stab return floated short and crosscourt, but landed in a deceptively difficult spot. Sabalenka, forced to run forward and hit over the high part of the net, drilled the ball a foot wide. She had the open court, but she couldn’t find it, and the match was over. Both women raised their hands to their faces, one in joy, the other in agony.

Sabalenka hadn’t played Doha since 2021, essentially ceding the event to her rival—and three-time defending champion—Iga Swiatek. This year she said she returned hoping to put her last major event, the Australian Open, behind her, and prepare for next month’s two big tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami. Sabalenka’s loss to Keys in Melbourne had stayed with her longer than any of her past Slam defeats.

“This one was the toughest one,” she said. “I think for a week I was still thinking about that match.”

Sabalenka’s game and confidence tend to come and go in waves. She and Swiatek will dominate the WTA for four or five months, look as if they’re about to become the clear No. 1, and then drop off while the other one takes the reins.

From July to the end of January, Sabalenka was in the driver’s seat. Are you we about to see another shift? Will that loss to Keys linger longer?

I wouldn’t say today’s defeat to Alexandrova indicates a coming collapse. It shows that Doha, with its 56-player draw, has a tough field. That Alexandrova, when she’s confident, has Top 10 ball-striking skills. And that Sabalenka has an element to her game that might best be described as Alcarazian.

Like Alcaraz, she can overpower anyone; like him, she doesn’t play with much margin; and like him, her form and her concentration will wander over the course of a match. Where Swiatek gets her teeth into a contest and never lets go, Sabalenka can let an opponent hang around, and it can cost her, like it did today. We’ll see if it was a fluke, or if it becomes a trend for her again.