Expert Picks: 2025 Indian Wells champions, best bets

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Pete Bodo

• Men's finalists and champion: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Hubert Hurkacz
• Men's early exit: Novak Djokovic

The tennis gods must have been rubbing their hands together and chortling when they placed Novak Djokovic’s name next to that of Nick Kyrgios in the draw, even though the latter will have to get past a qualifier in order to meet the 24-time Grand Slam singles champion. The two have been engaged in a transactional bromance for some time, with Djokovic seeking cred as a “cool kid” by palling around (and playing doubles) with Kyrgios. At the sametime, the controversial Aussie is trying to stay relevant in the game without playing—or owning the resume of an elite player. Plagued with late-career injuries that leave him ranked No. 7 at age 37, Djokovic hasn’t won a regular ATP Tournament in close to 18 months. Kyrgios hasn’t won one since the summer of 2022. Poetic justice calls for Kyrgios to beat his great fan, who is in a No Country For Old Men portion of the draw.

• Women's finalists and champion: Emma Navarro vs. Mirra Andreeva
  • Andreeva 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Jelena Ostapenko
• Women's early exit: Aryna Sabalenka

It's great to be Mirra Andreeva, the 17-year old who won a WTA 1000 in her last outing, defeating three recent Grand Slam champions including Iga Swiatek along the way. Andreeva thereby confirmed that the hype surrounding her for a year now was warranted.

But it isn’t nearly half-bad being Emma Navarro at the moment either. She justified her top-seeding (and fended off the accompanying pressure) at her most recent event, decimating the field at the Merida WTA 500, mastering qualifier Emiliana Arango in the final oh-and-oh no. Unlike Andreeva, Navarro was an unheralded upstart who rose from outside the Top 20 at the start of last year to her current career high of No. 8. At age 23, Navarro is demonstrating that there is a tennis life after 21, that attention generating success is attainable even without being an Andreeva-grade prodigy—at least for those diligent and smart enough to cultivate their less than flagrant talent.

David Kane

• Men's finalists and champion: Tommy Paul vs. Ben Shelton
  • Shelton 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Denis Shapovalov
• Men's early exit: Alexander Zverev

My dark horse and early exit picks ought to explain how I got to an ostensibly improbable all-American final: Zverev drew Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in his first big tournament as a top seed while Carlos Alcaraz drew another surging big-hitter in Shapovalov. Should both lose early, that opens the door for both Paul and Shelton, who landed in fairly soft sections anchored by four slumping seeds: Casper Ruud and Daniil Medvedev (Paul) and Andrey Rublev and Taylor Fritz (Shelton).

• Women's finalists and champion: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva
  • Sabalenka 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Anastasia Potapova
• Women's early exit: Zheng Qinwen

Should Sabalenka get past a potentially tricky second round against in-form American McCartney Kessler, it should be smooth sailing until the final, where I can see Andreeva maintain her Dubai momentum and make another deep run at a WTA 1000. Sabalenka still has the upper hand in that match-up, and this could be the reset the world No. 1 needs after a disappointing Middle East swing.

Ed McGrogan

• Men's finalists and champion: Alexander Zverev vs. Andrey Rublev
  
  • Rublev 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Alex Michelsen
• Men's early exit: Daniil Medvedev

Residing in the cozier top half, the 31st seed gets until Friday or Saturday to acclimate to Indian Wells’ unique conditions. Not that they should be unfamiliar, as he’s from nearby Aliso Viejo. Taylor Fritz is the tour’s Southern Californian of this era, but the 20-year-old Michelsen is at a career-high ranking and still on the ascent. His fourth-round run at the Australian Open, with convincing victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Karen Khachanov, may be a sign of immediate things to come. Two-time defending finalist Daniil Medvedev could be his third-round opponent, but manage to get by him and Michelsen could go much farther. Tommy Paul, a potential fourth-round foe, withdrew from Delray Beach with a shoulder injury, and was forced to pull out of Acapulco with illness.

• Women's finalists and champion: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek
  • Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Belinda Bencic
• Women's early exit: Madison Keys

World No. 1 Sabalenka’s second month of the season was forgettable, but don’t forget what she did in January: two finals (one title), two straightforward wins over Mirra Andreeva and little to suggest she’s still not still the best in the world. You could say something similar about Swiatek. While the second quarter of the draw is a gauntlet, expect Sabalenka to cruise to the semis, then find her way to the final against her top rival. Iga is 8-4 against Aryna, and while three of Sabalenka’s wins came on hard courts, Swiatek has three hard-court victories of her own. The Pole just feels due, she had a reasonably strong February in the Middle East, and her racquet speed remains unmatched.

Liya Davidov

• Men's finalists and champion: Alexander Zverev vs. Andrey Rublev
  • Zverev 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Learner Tien
• Men's early exit: Stefanos Tsitsipas

Something about this bottom half of the draw is itching for chaos in Paradise, and who better to cause some than Tien, the breakthrough teen of 2025? Following his second-week appearance at the Australian Open, Tien knocked out top seed Alexander Zverev 6-3, 6-4 in Acapulco. That match lasted less than 90 minutes.

The lefty has a tough draw ahead at the BNP Paribas Open, potentially facing countryman Ben Shelton in the second and Karen Khachanov in the third, with Andrey Rublev next in line to battle. But as a SoCal native playing in his home tournament with the confidence of the most recent success on his mind, there’s no one more qualified or capable of knocking out the seeds one match at a time.

• Women's finalists and champion: Coco Gauff vs. Jelena Ostapenko
  • Gauff 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Belinda Bencic
• Women's early exit: Jasmine Paolini

If there was court for Gauff to rediscover her footing, it’s at the BNP Paribas Open. “Indian Wells\] is a great surface for Gauff,” [said Lindsay Davenport. “She has that good kick serve, so I think it would be great conditions for her.” The only one standing in her way would be Ostapenko, who finds herself in the same side of the draw as Iga Swiatek.

Steve Tignor

• Men's finalists and champion: Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
• Men's early exit: Taylor Fritz

Foki doesn’t have a title yet this season, but he has experience a resurgence at 25. He’s 13-6, he’s been to two hard-court finals, in Delray and Acapulco, and and he made the fourth round at the Australian Open. He made the quarters in Indian Wells two years, and even if the surface is different this year, it’s a setting he should like. If the Spaniard wins his first two matches, there’s a good chance he would meet Novak Djokovic. Davidovich has a win over him, and Djokovic may be coming off a first-round victory over Nick Kyrgios, which have a tendency to be draining.

• Women's finalists and champion: Emma Navarro vs. Iga Swiatek
  • Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: McCartney Kessler
• Women's early exit: Zheng Qinwen

For the last three years, Swiatek has kicked her season into gear with a title in Doha. In two of those three years, she’s ramped her dominance up farther by winning on the slow hard courts in Indian Wells. This time a couple of things are different: (1) She hasn’t won a title this season, including in Doha; and (2) The Indian Wells surface has been switched to something that might be a little quicker, and not as much to her liking. All of that said, Swiatek should only now be coming into her prime at 23, and she’s due for one of her everything-suddenly-clicks weeks at some point this spring. IW seems like a good venue for it to happen.

Joel Drucker

• Men's finalists and champion: Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: João Fonseca
• Men's early exit: Daniil Medvedev

Though he’s reached the finals at Indian Wells the last two years, little in the fifth-seeded Medvedev’s ’25 inspires confidence that he will get that far once again. Results-wise, Medvedev this year has gone 8-5, four of those losses coming to players ranked between No. 47 and No. 121. Not since the spring of ’23 has he won a singles title. But perhaps it’s even more disturbing to witness Medvedev’s emotional discord. In Rotterdam, he directed a rant at chair umpire Adel Nour.

“Do you see? Open your eyes,” said Medvedev. “No, you don’t have eyes, man. You’re so bad.” Last week in Dubai, Medvedev was issued a code violation for unsportsmanlike behavior before losing to Tallon Griekspoor. Now, in Indian Wells, his draw could lead to early round matches versus ascending SoCal-based Alex Michelsen, another young contender in Jiri Lehecka, or the increasingly formidable Tommy Paul.

• Women's finalists and champion: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek
  • Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Belinda Bencic
• Women's early exit: Jasmine Paolini

Belinda Bencic has made an impressive comeback from maternity leave. So far in ‘25, she’s won 13 of 17 matches, including a title run at the WTA Tour 500 stop in Abu Dhabi. Along the way, Bencic has beaten Grand Slam champions Jelena Ostapenko, Naomi Osaka, Marketa Vondrousova, and Elena Rybakina. Quite wisely, Bencic commenced her return away from the WTA’s more challenging events, opting instead to compete at a pair of ITF tournaments and a WTA 125. As she told The Athletic, “I cannot be as arrogant to expect to not play for a year and a half and then come back to the same level . . . So it’s important that I can go to the lower level to also build everything up again and see where I’m at.” Should the 58^th-ranked Bencic win her opener versus Tatjana Maria, she’ll next play 17th-seeded Amanda Anisimova.

Franziska Bruells

• Men's finalists and champion: Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Gaël Monfils
• Men's early exit: Novak Djokovic

• Women's finalists and champion: Coco Gauff vs. Mirra Andreeva
  • Andreeva 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Belinda Bencic
• Women's early exit: Aryna Sabalenka

It's almost unfair to call Belinda Bencic a "dark horse." Since her comeback after giving birth to her daughter, the Swiss has clearly shown that she still belongs to the elite of women's tennis—especially after she claimed the title in Abu Dhabi a few weeks ago.

After Aryna Sabalenka lost the Australian Open final to Madison Keys, the Belarusian is looking for her good form, or would it be better to say, "looking for her motivation"? Even if she slowly gets back on track at the Sunshine Doubles, Sabalenka's rivals are not sleeping.

Jon Levey

• Men's finalists and champion: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Tallon Greikspoor
• Men's early exit: Daniil Medvedev

Tsitsipas continues his honeymoon roll with his new racquet. His backhand looks more secure, his forehand more forceful and—most importantly—his head in a much better place. However, as good as the he has looked recently, Tsitsipas has yet to solve Alcaraz (0-6 lifetime), who also happens to be the tournament’s two-time defending champion.

• Women's finalists and champion: Emma Navarro vs. Elena Rybakina
  • Rybakina 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Belinda Bencic
• Women's early exit: Zheng Qinwen

New mom Belinda Bencic won’t be unseeded for very much longer. She already has one title (Abu Dhabi) on the year and is out to a tidy 13-4 record with five top 50 wins. She has spoken about how being a parent has given her a more relaxed approach to her work/life balance and it clearly suits her tennis.

Stephanie Livaudais

• Men's finalists and champion: Tommy Paul vs. Andrey Rublev
  • Rublev 🏆
• Men's dark horse: João Fonseca
  
• Men's early exit: Alexander Zverev

After a confidence-boosting performance in Doha, another tournament featuring slow hard courts in a desert setting, Andrey Rublev looks primed to shine in Indian Wells, too. He’s seeking his first hard-court ATP Masters 1000 title, and landed in a tough but navigable section featuring familiar foes like Jack Draper, Félix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz. And with only 70 points to defend from now until his Madrid title defense in May, the Russian has a long runway under relatively little pressure as he gets back to his winning ways.

• Women's finalists and champion: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva
  • Sabalenka 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Jelena Ostapenko
• Women's early exit: Zheng Qinwen

Jelena Ostapenko is the ultimate wild card when she’s in form, and after a red-hot start to the season we can expect the 2017 Roland Garros winner to continue causing more draw chaos in Indian Wells. Ostapenko finished runner-up in Doha after knocking out Iga Swiatek, Ons Jabeur and Jasmine Paolini along the way. In doubles, she’s reached three finals, winning in Abu Dhabi (with Ellen Perez) and finishing runner up at the Australian Open and Dubai (with Hsieh Su-Wei). In Indian Wells, Ostapenko landed in the same half of the draw as Swiatek, and could be an early test for No. 4 seed Jessica Pegula.