Expert Picks: 2025 Miami Open champions, best bets

Stephanie Livaudais

• Men's finalists and champion: Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Fritz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Joao Fonseca
• ⭐️ Men's early exit: Jack Draper

The tight turnaround between Indian Wells and Miami could spell trouble for Draper, who has earned a reputation for physical frailty amid a career-long struggle with injury. At the Australian Open, the 23-year-old played back-to-back five-set matches and then had nothing left in the tank against Carlos Alcaraz as he struggled with hip tendonitis, eventually retiring from their fourth-round match. He took precautions after reaching the final in Doha by pulling out of Dubai to give himself more time to recover. Draper has been gradually building his endurance and strength, but having also struggled with abdominal and shoulder issues over the years, the risk of injury in the back of his mind could keep him from a strong result in Miami.

• Women's finalists and champion: Coco Gauff vs. Iga Swiatek
  • Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: McCartney Kessler
• ⭐️ Women's early exit: Madison Keys

A player that shines when she’s feeling confident, there are now question marks around Keys ahead of her start in Miami. This is not a tournament where she has historically seen her best results, with a lone quarterfinal appearance in 2016 the furthest she’s gone at what’s essentially her home tournament. The 30-year-old currently lives in Orlando, and she trained at the Evert Tennis Academy in nearby Boca Raton—so she’s literally right at home in South Florida. But she’ll be facing a major mental test in Miami, where she will take the court as the reigning Australian Open champion days after being routed by Aryna Sabalenka—her opponent in that Grand Slam final—in her most recent match. Will she be able to put it behind her and refocus?

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Joel Drucker

• ⭐️ Men's finalists and champion: Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Tallon Griekspoor
• Men's early exit: Andrey Rublev

Ponder this as a high-octane final between two passionate and versatile competitors who relish the chance to compete in front of large crowds for big rewards. The Florida-raised Shelton is coming off a quarterfinal showing in the desert, where he lost to eventual champion, Jack Draper. Alcaraz was beaten by the red-hot Draper in the next round, ending a two-year reign as the BNP Paribas Open champion. Following that defeat, Alcaraz said, “The last time that I lost here was the semifinal, and after all, I won Miami, so I think I will go for it. I will learn from that match, and I will make the most of myself in Miami.” Alcaraz has won their two prior matches, one in ’23, the other last fall at Laver Cup. With Shelton eager to improve on his 1-2 career record in Miami, a match between these two would certainly be compelling.

• Women's finalists and champion: Coco Gauff vs. Iga Swiatek
  • Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Naomi Osaka
• ⭐️ Women's early exit: Jasmine Paolini

Call Jasmine Paolini’s 2025 campaign thus far the classic case of a player going from hunter to hunted. Following a breakout season that saw her reach two Grand Slam singles finals in ’24, the likeable Italian this year has only gone 8-5 and has yet to reach a quarterfinal. Those losses have all come to players ranked no higher than No. 25. Paolini’s Miami Open draw is challenging, starting with a potential second round match versus 31st-seeded Ons Jabeur, an opponent Paolini is 1-2 against. Should Paolini win, her next opponent could be 12th-seeded Daria Kasatkina (3-3), Naomi Osaka (they’ve never played), or 24th-seeded Liudmila Samsonova, who beat Paolini in the round of 16 at Indian Wells and has now won all three times they’ve played one another. Last year in Miami, Paolini was beaten in the third round by Emma Navarro.

Emma Storey

• Men's finalists and champion: Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• ⭐️ Men's dark horse: Joao Fonseca
• Men's early exit: Alexander Zverev

Although it’s hard to describe such a talked about player as a dark horse, I do think Fonseca will be one to watch in Miami. He’s got momentum on his side after besting a high-quality field at the Phoenix Challenger and he holds a 2-0 record over opening opponent Learner Tien. The draw has also been relatively kind to him, with eighth seed Andrey Rublev the highest ranked player he can face before the quarter finals, so I’m backing him for a deep run.

• Women's finalists and champion: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva
  • Andreeva 🏆
• ⭐️ Women's dark horse: Belinda Bencic
• Women's early exit: Iga Swiatek

Bencic’s form post-maternity leave has been nothing short of impressive. She’s already back in the top 50, has a WTA 500 trophy under her belt in 2025 and is getting better and more consistent with every tournament she plays. Although she could face Iga Swiatek in the last 16, her recent wins over Coco Gauff and Emma Navarro—coupled with Swiatek’s current struggles - could see the Swiss at least match her Indian Wells quarterfinals performance.

Steve Tignor

• Men's finalists and champion: Taylor Fritz vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• ⭐️ Men's dark horse: Jakub Mensik
• Men's early exit: Holger Rune

When the year began, the 6-foot-4, 19-year-old Czech looked like a potential breakout performer for 2025. With an 8-6 record through 10 weeks, he’s been OK, but nothing like, say, Jack Draper. Still, Mensik, now ranked 54th, remains a heavy hitter and a Top 20 talent, and he just made a semifinal run at a Challenger in the Dominican Republic. If he wins his opener, he’ll get a shot at Draper.

• Women's finalists and champion: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula
  • Sabalenka 🏆
• ⭐️ Women's dark horse: McCartney Kessler
• Women's early exit: Madison Keys

Kessler has been the pleasant surprise of U.S. tennis so far this season, winning a title in Hobart, making a final in Austin, and breaking into the Top 50 at the fairly advanced age of 25. She’s a Georgia native who played college tennis at Florida, and should have the Miami crowd with here. Two wins and she might face Navarro.

Pete Bodo

• Men's finalists and champion: Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• ⭐️ Men's dark horse: Gaël Monfils
• Men's early exit: Jack Draper

This may be a pie-in-the-sky choice, but it’s a way to pay tribute to the way Monfils has been playing this year. He’s 11-4 on the year, but almost every match he plays has been electric and an enormous treat for the fans. Monfils is as elastic as ever, his shotmaking as spectacular now as it was a decade ago. He’s also been a great role model as a father and constant presence in the coaching box during matches played by his wife, Elina Svitolina. The support he has provided for the Ukrainian star has been a godsend for her. Monfils has evolved over the years into an admirable and ceaselessly compelling man..

• Women's finalists and champion: Coco Gauff vs. Iga Swiatek
  • Swiatek 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Naomi Osaka
• ⭐️ Women's early exit: Elena Rybakina

It’s been a little sad watching this introverted Wimbledon champion struggle through the various problems that have afflicted her on the heels of a spectacular run that ended with her win in Stuttgart in 2024. Elena Rybakina went 26-5 in that string, defeated Iga Swiatek on clay, and loomed as a favorite for the two mid-summer Slams. But then she struggled with some mysterious health issues. The controversy that later emerged involving her coach Stefano Vukov (now banned by the WTA) certainly didn’t help her cause. She’s become something of an enigma. She has a good draw in Miami but things just don’t seem right with her.

Franziska Bruells

• ⭐️ Men's finalists and champion: Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Gaël Monfils
• Men's early exit: Jack Draper

Zverev hasn't really been in good form recently, but after his early exit in Indian Wells, he has now had plenty of time to prepare for the Miami Open. In my opinion, the draw and his experience speak in his favor, because if there's one thing the German can rely on, it's his fitness. He will therefore be well rested and well prepared for the second Masters tournament. Carlos Alcaraz, however, will probably be even more motivated to win the title in Miami after losing in the semi-finals in Indian Wells.

• ⭐️ Women's finalists and champion: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek
  • Sabalenka 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Naomi Osaka
• Women's early exit: Elena Rybakina

Aryna Sabalenka was hit hard by her defeat in the final against Madison Keys in Melbourne. In Indian Wells, the world No. 1 finally seemed to have recovered from the shock and appeared refreshed and motivated. The fact that she was also beaten in the final against Andreeva will only boost her motivation even further. Iga Swiatek will also get her emotions under control again over time and show her best tennis. She has already been able to showcase a large amount of this in Indian Wells, the final touches could now follow in Miami.

David Kane

• ⭐️ Men's finalists and champion: Ben Shelton vs. Daniil Medvedev
  • Medvedev 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Lorenzo Musetti
• Men's early exit: Jack Draper

Indian Wells was shaping up to be Ben Shelton’s moment before Jack Draper stole the show, but the American has a second shot in Miami, where he has far more momentum than projected fourth-round foe Taylor Fritz.

Meanwhile, Daniil Medvedev very nearly won a Masters 1000 on his least favorite hard court, and should be feeling plenty of confidence at a tournament he’s won before. This feels like the former No. 1’s last chance to reset his season before the tour heads to clay.

• Women's finalists and champion: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Clara Tauson
  • Sabalenka 🏆
• Women's dark horse: Elina Svitolina
• ⭐️ Women's early exit: Iga Swiatek

If her lengthy Instagram manifesto is any indication, it’s clear all is not well with Iga Swiatek, who has failed to win big matches all season. A former Miami champion, Swiatek can struggled on these quicker courts and may already be looking ahead to the clay swing, where she has even more points to defend.

Ed McGrogan

• ⭐️ Men's finalists and champion: Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Reilly Opelka
• Men's early exit: Casper Ruud

It’s hard to imagine Alcaraz not owning an outdoor hardcourt title before clay gets underway. Still, he’s won 83 percent of his matches this season, most in straight sets. At a certain point—two Sundays from now, I believe—his talent will win out. Shelton looked unstoppable at Indian Wells until he, like Alcaraz, ran into Draper. Win or lose, the former Florida Gator has the unshakable confidence to dismiss that defeat and make another deep run.

• Women's finalists and champion: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Diana Shnaider
  • Sabalenka 🏆
• ⭐️ Women's dark horse: McCartney Kessler
• Women's early exit: Madison Keys

In a section of the draw headed by Emma Navarro and Mirra Andreeva, Kessler’s chances at longterm success seem slim. But Navarro is one of the few Top 10 players without a WTA 1000 title—she’s just delivered at the Slams, more than anything—and you’d think Andreeva will have to stumble, searing hot as she is. Kessler, a 25-year-old from the southeast, is coming into her own, 15-7 on the season with a title and a runner-up. She also has a straight-sets win over Coco Gauff.

Liya Davidov

• ⭐️ Men's finalists and champion: Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • Alcaraz 🏆
• Men's dark horse: Gaël Monfils
• Men's early exit: Andrey Rublev

The top two seeds are sitting pretty in Miami with a straightforward run to the final. For Alexander Zverev, the only player that could hinder a deep run is Arthur Fils, who has forced three-set battles in all three meetings last year—not to mention winning one of those outcomes.

Where Carlos Alcaraz and the bottom half of the draw is concerned, he’s the fiercest competitor to meet in each round. Grigor Dimitrov, Novak Djokovic, and Daniil Medvedev the biggest hurdles in the Spaniard’s way, with Dimitrov being the only one in his quarter. Alcaraz has come out of the Sunshine Swing with one trophy to his name since 2022, and coming up short in tennis paradise leaves him with one trophy left to grab…

• Women's finalists and champion: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Mirra Andreeva
  • Sabalenka 🏆
• ⭐️ Women's dark horse: Belinda Bencic
• Women's early exit: Emma Navarro

She didn’t fail me as the dark horse pick for Indian Wells—girl wild-carded her way into the quarterfinals—and something tells me Belinda Bencic’s going to continue doing damage in Miami. As an unseeded player, it’s easy to brush over her name in the draw, especially considering a projected draw of Elina Svitolina in the second round followed by Karolina Muchova and Iga Swiatek.

With a closer look, however, we find a tied record against Svitolina, and a winning record against Muchova. It’s world No. 2 that could cause some problems for the Swiss, but Swiatek hasn’t had the greatest start to the year and is coming into Miami less grounded than usual. By the time both players reach the round of 16, Bencic will have both momentum, and belief.