Expert Picks: Roland Garros men's and women's champions, dark horses and early exits

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Peter Bodo

• Men's finalists: Casper Ruud, Stefanos Tsitsipas
  • 🏆 Champion: Tsitsipas
• Men's dark horse: Grigor Dimitrov
• Men's early exit: Daniil Medvedev

The men’s clay season has been riddled with so many holes, questions, caveats, injuries and surprises that it’s high time for a challenge to the crumbling pecking order that features Djokovic, Sinner, Alcaraz and—this “Big Four 2.0” group’s Andy Murray—Medvedev. Hey Zverev and Tsitsipas, it’s show time!

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Zheng Qinwen
  • 🏆 Champion: Swiatek
• Women's dark horse: Madison Keys
• Women's early exit: Ons Jabeur

Justine Henin won four Roland Garros titles in five years, including three straight (2005-07). Should Swiatek win again, it would replicate Henin’s record—and leave Iga, who is just 22, the youngest woman to win four times at Roland Garros. Others in that elite group? Steffi Graf and Chris Evert. Swiatek has been nothing less than spectacular on clay.

Liya Davidov

• Men's finalists: Novak Djokovic, Andrey Rublev
  • 🏆 Champion: Djokovic
• Men's dark horse: Nicolas Jarry
• Men's early exit: Hubert Hurkacz

All the uncertainty in the men’s field sets Djokovic up for a fourth title run in Paris. The only question is if Nadal is healthy enough for one final push. But determination alone might not be enough for Rafa in his first-round match against Alexander Zverev, who just won Rome and has been vocal about his coming after Roland Garros. The other half of the draw is going to be a fascinating watch, as top seeds Sinner and Alcaraz battle injuries, while hungry newcomers are playing as unafraid as ever.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
  • 🏆 Champion: Swiatek
• Women's dark horse: Linda Noskova
• Women's early exit: Maria Sakkari

Swiatek is on track for her fourth title in Paris and third in a row. When it comes to taking down the Pole on her favorite surface, it will take a very strategic and patient counterpart to (try and) make it happen. Sabalenka appears to have a similar case on her half of the draw, with Rybakina the largest second-week threat en route to the final.

Joel Drucker

• Men's finalists: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz
  • 🏆 Champion: Alcaraz
• Men's dark horse: Jan-Lennard Struff
• Men's early exit: Daniil Medvedev

Consider this a tale of two tournaments—one clear, the other vague. Crystal-clear global attention will accompany every step Nadal takes during his likely final appearance at Roland Garros. After Rafa, the fog of clay0court war amid the most wide-open Roland Garros in nearly 20 years.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
  • 🏆 Champion: Swiatek
• Women's dark horse: Victoria Azarenka
• Women's early exit: Marketa Vondrousova

What will it take to topple Swiatek from her clay-court throne? For prime contender Sabalenka, the answer is simple: raw power. Is that the only way? A range of tactics beckons—from spins and speeds, to volleys and more. Which player and coach will in time trot out a broader array?

David Kane

• Men's finalists: Casper Ruud vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • 🏆 Champion: Alcaraz
• Men's dark horse: Rafael Nadal
• Men's early exit: Daniil Medvedev

A dark horse—someone outside the Top 8—that's also a 14-time champion? How can you not pick Rafa? If this is, in fact, his final Roland Garros, that's all the more reason to bet on Nadal to channel the court that has defined his career into a fairytale finish—or at least a run into the second week.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
  • 🏆 Champion: Swiatek
• Women's dark horse: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
• Women's early exit: Elena Rybakina

On paper, Rybakina may be Swiatek's biggest threat to the title, but the Kazakh is up against an even bigger nemesis at this time of year: pollen. She withdrew from Roland Garros last year after allergies turned into illness, and was unable to defend her Rome title for similar reasons last week. Combine that with a surface that blunts her power, and Roland Garros may always be her toughest major hurdle.

Jon Levey

• Men's finalists: Casper Ruud vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
  • 🏆 Champion: Ruud
• Men's dark horse: Karen Khachanov
• Men's early exit: Daniil Medvedev

Djokovic doesn’t look sharp (yet), Nadal won’t have time to play himself into the draw, and other notable favorites are battling injuries. In other words, chaos reigns.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
  • 🏆 Champion: Swiatek
• Women's dark horse: Danielle Collins
• Women's early exit: Zheng Qinwen

Swiatek may be entering prime Rafa (her idol) territory on clay: it’s her against the field. Having made the semifinals or better in her last six Slams, Sabalenka is the safest bet of the second half. A showdown of the top two players feels in order.

Stephanie Livaudais

• Men's finalists: Alexander Zverev vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
  • 🏆 Champion: Tsitsipas
• Men's dark horse: Mariano Navone
• Men's early exit: Jannik Sinner

There are two types of tennis fans ahead of the most “open” Roland Garros in decades: Those that long for the Nadals and Djokovics to restore order, and those who embrace the new order. I can’t wait to see a first-time Slam winner, and a South American surge, this year.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
  • 🏆 Champion: Swiatek
• Women's dark horse: Daria Kasatkina
• Women's early exit: Marketa Vondrousova

World No. 1 and No. 2 Swiatek and Sabalenka have already met at two of the WTA’s biggest clay-court tournaments in Madrid and Rome—with the former producing arguably the best final of the season. A Grand Slam meeting feels like the perfect, and most likely, conclusion to the best clay season in years.

Ed McGrogan

• Men's finalists: Zverev vs. Rublev
  • 🏆 Champion: Rublev
• Men's dark horse: Alexander Bublik
• Men's early exit: Daniil Medvedev

If Rublev is ever going to make good on my pre-season prediction (which has already been busted thanks to Sinner, but still), the most unpredictable Roland Garros men's tournament in years feels like the venue. But it will be fascinating no matter what happens.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Elina Svitolina
  • 🏆 Champion: Swiatek
• Women's dark horse: Sofia Kenin
• Women's early exit: Elena Rybakina

Rarely is the choice for runner-up a hot take, but not when Iga and Aryna have owned this clay season. But Svitolina nearly topped Sabalenka in Rome, and she'll have no shortage of support in Paris. That will see her through to the final—but it won't be enough against the practically unbeatable Swiatek.

Steve Tignor

• Men's finalists: Alexander Zverev vs. Carlos Alcaraz
  • 🏆 Champion: Zverev
• Men's dark horse: Karen Khachanov
• Men's early exit: Daniil Medvedev

My men’s pick, Zverev, will have to earn it. He may have to go through Nadal, Medvedev, Djokovic, and either Alcaraz or Sinner in the final. And he’ll have to do all of that while being on trial at the same time in Germany.

• Women's finalists: Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka
  • 🏆 Champion: Swiatek
• Women's dark horse: Jelena Ostapenko
• Women's early exit: Maria Sakkari

I’d say the biggest question of the women’s draw to start is a simple one: Can Rybakina spoil the party? The No. 3 seed is on Sabalenka’s side of the draw, and would seem to be the only woman standing between a third straight Iga-Aryna final.