This has to be one of the most highly anticipated semifinal days in recent men’s tennis history. We had a similar final four at the last major, in Melbourne, with the Big Three—Rog, Rafa, and Novak—joined by one erratic, charismatic, acrobatic Frenchman. That time it was Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who shocked us; this time we get to marvel at Gael Monfils. But the stakes are higher, and the tension thicker, in Paris. That’s because, as I said in my tournament preview two weeks ago, the French Open is now the place where the game’s big questions get asked and answered.
The first of those questions—how long can Rafa's clay reign last?—will be asked again in the opening semifinal between Djokovic and Nadal. (Not that viewers in the U.S will get to see it as it’s happening; as far as I can tell, NBC will show Federer-Monfils live at 10 A.M. tomorrow, and the Tennis Channel will bring us Djokovic-Nadal on tape at 4 P.M.—harsh, I know.) As vicious and closely contested as their semifinal in Hamburg was last month, it’s hard to bet against Nadal on the colossal center court at Roland Garros. As my friend Jon Levey said last week, Nadal converts the place into a personal office. He looks like he’s in his backyard when he walks onto that sprawling orange court. His rituals—calling for the towel, choosing the perfect ball to serve, wiping the baseline clean with his foot before going into his return stance—have an air of authority, as if he’s hosting his opponent for the day and controlling the agenda throughout.
The sheer size of the playing surface on Chatrier also helps Nadal. He’s free to extend the court, both outward and upward, during rallies. He can take his return far behind the baseline, hit it high over the net, and force his opponent to have to move back and make contact at shoulder height or above. In what I’ve seen of his multiple demolitions so far, he seems to be playing safely, with plenty of net clearance and distance from the lines, without sacrificing any aggression. Rather than taking chances, he’s content to let the heaviness of his shots do the work and wear the other guy down. There’s been a tank-like quality to Nadal’s game in Paris. He’s battened down any tiny hatches that had come loose in previous weeks, stripped away anything that wasn’t high-percentage tennis, and simply run over his opponents. You only have to see the get he made on match point against Almagro in the last round to know how tough it is to make any inroads against him right now; he was partially off-screen when he got to the ball. Nadal has steamrolled through the draw in vintage Bjorn Borg style, losing a total of 25 games in five matches thus far.
In 1978, Borg lost 32 games over two weeks in Paris. Nadal is actually one game ahead of where Borg was after the quarterfinals, but chances are he’s not going to match the Swede in the end. After all, Borg won his semifinal in ’78 over Italy’s Corrado Barazzutti 0, 1, and 0. That, I can guarantee, is not going to happen Friday against Djokovic. But what kind of inroads can Djokovic make, particularly if the conditions are rainy and heavy, as they have been for most of the event? Every match unfolds differently, but in Hamburg the Serb made them by stretching Nadal wide, getting him scrambling along the baseline, and then drilling his backhand up the line. He also mixed up his serve well, until he began to tire—first serves to Nadal’s backhand are always crucial if you want to have any kind of chance.
In the end Djokovic, like any other human, began to miss those big backhands down the line. As good as he is at it—and he’s as good as anyone, maybe ever—that’s still a low-percentage shot, as it goes over the high part of the net and allows you less space to work with than when you go crosscourt. But at least coming into this match, Djokovic knows he can rattle the tank and slow it down with his own barrage. In Hamburg he forced Nadal to move more to his right and take more chances with his inside-out forehand than he usually does. Of course, Nadal ended up reclaiming the initiative with that shot and hitting it for some spectacular winners, but he was forced to change course. That’s what Djokovic must do early on Friday, before the endless, high, heavy, safe, topspin balls from Nadal begin to do their ruthless work. It’s not impossible. As I also mentioned in the preview, Djokovic is adept at learning from past matches, adjusting, and then having the confidence to execute. And I think he will do all those things against Nadal. And I don’t think it will be enough.
Nadal: 7-6, 7-5, 7-6
Federer-Monfils, by comparison, should be the light entertainment of the afternoon, an improbable battle of spins and angles and eccentric court positioning. Monfils has captured the tournament not by changing his game the way we said he should, but by going deeper into his own bizarre and unlikely tactical repertoire. He’s played even more defensively, sliding more, jumping more, and relying on his outrageous speed and elastic hitting ability to track down seemingly ungettable balls and turn the tables in rallies from 10 feet behind the baseline. Chatrier almost looks too small for Monfils right now; if the tournament were played on an endless field of clay, with no bleachers to stop him, he would probably be unbeatable.
Unfortunately for Monfils, as appealing and original as his style is—who else bends straight down and rests their elbows on their thighs when they get ready to return serve?—I don't see it giving Federer much trouble. Unlike Ferrer in the last round, Federer won’t have a problem finishing points at the net and angling the ball where even Monfils can’t get to it. Federer hasn’t lost a set to the Frenchman in three matches, and he just beat him 3 and 4 a few weeks ago on clay in Monte Carlo. He also just came through a slight scare against Gonzalez in the last round, which should only make him more confident of his ability to weather any storm in the semis.
The storm could come, of course, if Monfils gets off to a good start and makes the home crowd believe. I can see an adrenaline rush getting him through a set, but then it will be up to Monfils himself to believe he can beat Roger Federer. I doubt, deep down, no matter how many dance moves or eye-popping screams he throws in, that he does.
Federer: 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2