Fight to the Finish

Most years, it’s all well and good at the start of the final “regular-season” tournament on the ATP calendar, the Paris Masters. Two or three warriors in shorts are likely to be enmeshed in a life-or-death struggle to reach the ATP World Tour Finals. Others may be scheming to make a final push to topple the leading player, perhaps even to take his place when the year-end rankings come out.

Come the weekend, though, the air is often out of the balloon. The hash has been settled. This week, for example, Roger Federer was beaten in the quarterfinals, ending one much-touted narrative. Then the bottom fell out of the other major theme a little too soon. Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, and Milos Raonic all qualified for the season-ending championships by the end of the quarterfinals.

We were left wondering, “Can anyone beat Novak Djokovic?”—who hasn’t lost a match indoors since Sam Querrey took him down in Paris in 2012 (a 26-match winning streak)—and sadly watched David Ferrer limp back to Valencia, his year done, shut out of the year-end event for the first time since the 2009 season thanks to Nishikori.

Semifinal day in Paris this year started out well enough, with Raonic winning a statement match against fellow London qualifier Berdych. Raonic has been known to fade for mysterious reasons, and it would hardly have been surprising if he’d merely gone through the motions in what is as close as you can get to a meaningless match. But Raonic stood, and he delivered. As he said in a Sky Sports interview after he won 90 percent of his first-serve points and out-slugged Berdych, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5:

"There was a lot of motivation from wanting to make London and I didn't want to have any type of a letdown today. I knew I'd made it last night and I didn't want there to be any doubt in my mind about a letdown. So I put even more pressure on myself to make sure that the mental and physical energy was there, to really push myself, because I really wanted to win the match today.”

That’s an exemplary attitude, and you have to wonder if it may not represent some vital change in Raonic, the kind that might make him capable of punching through the last obstacle blocking his path to a major title. Of course, there’s more to Raonic's recent success than a good vibe and powerful emotions.

The main goals when Raonic hired former pro Ivan Ljubicic as his coach were to exploit his assets, beginning with his ability to dictate with his atomic serve and forehand. Subsequently, Raonic trimmed a lot of fat out of his game. His former tendency to sit back and react rather than step in and take charge hasn’t shadowed his results in recent tournaments. And if Raonic is comfortable enough to play that commanding tennis reflexively, without thinking, he will present nightmarish problems to his fellow London qualifiers in a week’s time.

Unfortunately, Kei Nishikori provided us with a dramatic contrast to Raonic in the second semifinal in Paris today. Granted, Ferrer might be the absolute last guy anyone would want to play to secure a place in the World Tour Finals, especially when the Spaniard’s own chance to qualify also hung in the balance. Nishikori certainly did a great job winning their tense three-setter on Friday, the result of which was as welcome to Raonic as it was to the winner. For with the win, both young men qualified, closing down the race to London.

Finito la musica, right?

No. Unfortunately, there was still the final Masters Series weekend looming. Nishikori proved incapable of mustering the kind of energy and drive Raonic demonstrated in the first semifinal, and he offered top-seeded new dad Djokovic little resistance.

Nishikori looked listless from the start, his heart and mind clearly in no great danger of exploding from desire. There will certainly be ominous talk of injury in the aftermath, but then when isn’t Nishikori lurching off his deathbed in order to play matches? The really odd thing is that Nishikori plays such a tough, grinder’s type of game—a Ferrer-esque game—that his preoccupation with injury and illness seems totally out of character. Put it down to human nature.

At any rate, Djokovic wasn’t asked to do all that much, yet there were puzzling lapses in his game as well—although you’d never know it from the 6-2, 6-3 score, the 62-minute duration of the match, or the stats. The most glaring example was the second game of the second set, in which Djokovic had a good chance to salt away the win with a break for 6-2, 2-0. He arrived at break point when Nishikori netted a forehand, but wasted the chance with a forehand error of his own. He then made two more egregious forehand errors to allow the hold. It wasn’t a huge deal in the grand scheme of things, but it seemed emblematic of the way Djokovic has developed a dangerous habit lately of playing with his food.

Djokovic certainly had a lot of motivation to play well in this match. He will not be able to clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking tomorrow—that pesky Federer hasn’t thrown in the towel yet. But if Djokovic wants to retain his place atop the tour, it would serve him well to walk away with as many points out of Paris as he can muster, which in this case would be 1,000, the same amount that he is defending. (Federer, a finalist last year, will take a net loss of 420 points.)

Should Raonic continue to play lights out tennis and Djokovic fail to marshal adequate motivation, Djokovic could still end up taking a 400 point hit, and that would certainly make the World Tour Finals even more interesting. I think I know who Federer will be pulling for tomorrow.