It used to be that Monte Carlo was just a rumor to tennis fans in this country. You might glimpse a couple hours of the final, on tape delay, late on a rainy, sleepy Sunday afternoon. If you subscribed to a tennis magazine, you could count on seeing the traditional photo from high above the center court, bright orange clay giving way to serene blue sea (this year's version is at right). It made you wish you were somewhere less rainy, less sleepy. But you had no hope of actually going there.
Which makes this tournament a good measuring stick for how much the Tennis Channel, HDTV, and the Internet have combined to change the average obsessed tennis fan’s relationship with the sport. I can remember flicking the Tennis Channel on for the first time in the spring of 2004, back when its filler programming consisted of badminton (bring it back, please) and Southern California-style paddle tennis (keep it away, thanks), and seeing the opening rounds from the Principality for the first time. I couldn’t quite believe my eyes; it was like being given a chance to see a tennis kingdom that only had been rumored before. I watched even the most mundane first-rounders as if they were the Wimbledon final. I can still remember how blazingly good Lleyton Hewitt vs. Rainer Schuettler was in an early round; one of the best matches I've ever seen.
Maybe it’s the orange clay, my favorite surface for spectating. Maybe it’s the serene blue sea, which I still have never seen in person. Maybe it’s that shot from court level that the TV producers like to use, the one where you can see the sunlight beyond the center court stands. Maybe it’s how warm the court looks when the sun starts to go down in the afternoon. The disbelief is gone, but that first excitement of being able to watch every single match from Monte Carlo is still there seven years later. What will see from the hidden tennis kingdom the rest of the week? Let’s take a look at how the draw might play out at the year’s first Euro clay event.
Top Half
Way way up top, seemingly untouchable on these courts, is Rafael Nadal, the man who has won the tournament the last six years, and who may have played the best tennis of his career in leveling the field here in 2010. Nadal’s form has been better so far this spring than it was last year, but either way he’s always a new man when he hits Monte Carlo clay.
Is there any one who can stop his march to No. 7? Benneteau, Nieminen, Gasquet, Monaco, Tsonga, Berdych, Murray, Monfils, Simon, Youzhny, Baghdatis: These are among the men in Nadal’s half who will try. Gasquet? He could go Microwave. Berdych? He’s beaten Rafa before. Ditto for Youzhny, Murray, Tsonga. But none have done it on clay; when you think about it, how many players have beaten Nadal on clay in the last six years? One player who has, Robin Soderling, isn’t in the tournament. I might give Murray the best chance, if he weren’t simply trying to win a match, any match. I might give Monfils a chance if . . . he weren’t Gael Monfils.
First-round match to watch: Andy Murray vs. anyone. How long will the post-Aussie slide go this time? Last year, Murray didn’t break out of his funk until Wimbledon.
Finalist: Nadal
*
Bottom Half
Here is where things get unpredictable. Roger Federer is the highest seed in this half, he’s reached the final here before, and no one on his side jumps off the page as especially dangerous—it helps that Novak Djokovic, who has beaten Federer three times this year, isn’t around (is he cursing his family's Belgrade tournament yet?). But it’s not a cakewalk either. Federer begins with Kohlschreiber, a talent; then there’s possibly Cilic or one of the Italian dirtballers, Starace or Volandri, both "tough outs," as they say; then perhaps Davydenko, Melzer, or Almagro in the quarters; and finally a potential semi with Verdasco or Ferrer. We'll see if the latter has gotten over his stomach-ache/baby-gate twin disaster in Key Biscayne. Hopefully he can put it behind him; he's had a good year otherwise.
Second-round match to watch: Gulbis vs. Raonic—stoner meets science geek.
Finalist: Ferrer
Champion: Nadal