Kim Clijsters has reached the final in her last four U.S. Opens. Vera Zvonareva is into her second straight Grand Slam final. Before these two meet for the title Saturday night, Peter Bodo answered five questions about the matchup.
1. Kim Clijsters has won 20 consecutive U.S. Open matches. What are the chances of Vera Zvonareva ending that streak?
I'm picking Zvonareva to win the match because she's convinced me that she's turned a corner and shed the "head case" albatross (although it would be just like a head case to fool us about that). Clijsters has stunk out the joint at the Grand Slams this year, suffering what can only be called bad losses. Sure, she's the Beast of Flushing Meadows, but I see her streak as a bit suspect because of the long break she took before returning to win here last year.
2. The U.S. Open has brought out the best in Clijsters. Is she the greatest tennis comeback story of all time?
Not even close. The WTA game is wide open and there isn't a single player either willing or able to dominate the old-fashioned way, winning tournaments and crushing everyone in her path week-in, week-out. Nobody has read the women the riot act the way Martina Navratilova once did, forcing them to actually work on their fitness, or the way Steffi Graf and Monica Seles did, forcing them to elevate their games. I give Clijsters a lot of credit for making a successful comeback, but the moat around the castle was drained and the drawbridge down—she just strolled right in and took her share. I might feel differently if Clijsters had been a significant force at the other majors, but she lost to Nadia Petrova in Australia, missed the French Open, and you know what happened at Wimbledon: a quarterfinal loss to...Zvonareva.
3. Has this just been a great summer for Zvonareva, or is she a serious threat at Slams going forward?
I think the new Zvonareva is for real, although these "head case" players have a way of fooling you and crushing your expectations just when you've decided to give them the benefit of the doubt. Sure, she's won just one title this season (the fewest of the four semifinalists), and that was in Pattaya City, wherever that is. But she's been very consistent and has appeared in four other finals. Of course, this presents a slight problem—most of the time, she can't finish the job—but it's certainly helped convince her that she belongs, and every player knows that if you're good enough to consistently make finals, you're good enough to win them should you get a beatable opponent. Clijsters has always been beatable, especially at majors.
4. The wind has been a major factor in recent matches. If it’s blustery again Saturday night, who do the conditions favor?
Well, it isn't likely to be blustery, but I go counterintuitive on this one. Most people feel that the ability to apply heavy spin, especially topspin, is a great asset in the wind, because you can dial in your margin of error. While that's true, there are advantages to hitting a hard, relatively flat ball, too, as Roger Federer demonstrated in his match with Robin Soderling. Think of it this way: A fastball fired with sufficient force has enough energy to be less affected by wind than a fluttering knuckleball. Zvonareva's strokes are slightly more compact than Kim's, and the slice can also be very effective in windy conditions when a player is inclined to seek control and accuracy. The main problem I see for Zvonareva is that I believe she needs to attack, and that's a tricky proposition in the wind. So I give Clijsters a slight edge, but based only on that. Otherwise, it's a wash.
- If Zvonareva wins the title, she’ll have beaten the top two seeds in the last two matches. Would it be one of the best U.S. Open performances ever?
I wouldn't go that far. You could maybe say that if she plays great and the match is a real barn burner. But even then, it would be at best one of the most inspired U.S. Open performances. The champion will get all the credit she deserves, but there's a caveat looming over this tournament, which is that Serena Williams was not present. History will forget that, but we won't—not in the short term. In fact, if Zvonareva wins, it will just advance the narrative that the WTA throne room is wide open, and the women are all free to stand in line and take turns sitting in it for a while. The best omen Zvonareva has going in is that the Russians have put up some stirring memories at the Open in recent years. Who would have predicted a win by Svetlana Kuznetsova in New York in 2004? And how about the way Maria Sharapova whipped Justine Henin two years later? The Russians have a good mojo in New York. Watch out, Kim!