Rafael Nadal is shooting for his eighth career Grand Slam title Sunday at Wimbledon; Tomas Berdych is getting his first crack at major glory. Reporting from the All England Club, Peter Bodo answers questions about the matchup.
1. What held Berdych back before and what has helped him break through in 2010?
Here's an interesting conversation starter: At Berdych's age, his fellow Czech Ivan Lendl had yet to win his first major. That's just to provide some context in this discussion. Berdych has worked hard, steadily. Listen to him talk about it and you might think he's just blowing smoke when he says nothing much has changed in his approach, work ethic, or state of confidence, but the guy really means it. So unless you want to second guess his own analysis, the simple, one-word description of his transformation is "maturity," and he made sure he was in the right physical and psychological condition to exploit it. On a practical level, his win over Roger Federer in Miami was the spark that started the current flame. He's played well ever since that watershed match.
2. What elements of Berdych's game will give Nadal the most trouble?
First off, his serve. Guys who serve big (think Robin Soderling) make Nadal nervous, in the same way that too tight a girth or a badly-fitting bit will make a race horse nervous. I think the flat nature of Berdych's strokes is another potentially troubling element for Nadal. Being a clay-court expert, Nadal was perhaps a little bit lulled by countrymen like David Ferrer and Fernando Verdasco, who use a lot of spin and thus inevitably gave Nadal more time. Berdych's flat hard shots take time away Nadal's time. I also think Berdych's reach will be a factor, if he takes his opportunities to attack, both on the volley and overhead.
3. Will Nadal have to play as well as he did against Andy Murray to beat Berdych, or can he win playing below his peak?
Well, that will depend on whether or not Berdych plays like he did against Federer and Novak Djokovic. If Berdych sustains the level he's shown, Nadal will have to be at or close to that level he showed vs. Murray. But if Berdych succumbs to nerves, or starts spraying groundstrokes or struggling with his first-serve percentage, Nadal will have a big, broad comfort zone. In that sense, this could be an either/or kind of match. If Berdych steps up and handles the occasion, it could be excruciatingly close; if Berdych misfires or gets tight, Nadal could roll right through him. Nadal is more than capable of winning while playing less than his best.
4. Do you sense that more big men with huge strokes will contend for majors, after Juan Martin del Potro won the U.S. Open, Robin Soderling reached the last two Roland Garros finals, and Berdych broke through here?
I'd say that's already the case; big men who hit big, flat balls are the ATP flavor of the month, and the Federers and Nadals of this world (both of them) can thank their lucky stars that del Potro, who has the best record among all these giants, isn't around (he may miss the entire year with his somewhat mysterious wrist injury). I'd say John Isner has also made a 'big guy' statement this spring and summer, and you could probably throw Sam Querrey in with that group too, although he doesn't seem quite as . . . physical as the others. And let's not forget Marin Cilic. We probably haven't heard the last from him.
5. If Nadal wins, he'll have eight major titles, half of Roger Federer's 16. What do you expect of him in the short-term and long-term? What about Federer?
I think the recurrent questions about Nadal's durability and susceptibility to injury are troubling. There's some debate over just how serious these injuries are, and whether or not they should be the subject of so much debate. But given that Nadal missed his chance to defend his title at Wimbledon last year, I'd say it's a legitimate area of concern. If Nadal can solve the U.S. Open equation, and endure this upcoming hard-court season in good fighting trim, I can see him equalling or surpassing Federer's mark. I feel comfortable predicting at least a dozen majors for Rafa. Federer is a different case. It can all slip away pretty quickly in the late stages of a guy's career, and the emergence of guys who can push him around and beat him up, a la Berdych, Soderling, is bad timing as far as Federer is concerned (Rafa, too, to a lesser extent). Roger has a great chance to turn it around at the U.S. Open, given his outstanding record there. What he does in New York in September will set the tone for the final stage of his career. Federer is good for at least one more major—great champs always make a final statement. But I'm not confident that he'll win more.