It’s time to get organized, get everyone in the living room, hold a family forum. After a scattershot weekend of ties and matches on all types of surfaces, in indoor and outdoor arenas all over the world, this week the top men and women get back to doing what tennis players and tennis bums have always done best: following the sun. First it leads them to the California desert for the BNP Paribas Open, and then on to the Florida Keys, for the Sony Ericsson Open. I guess you could call it March Madness, tennis-style, though “madness” is not the first word that comes to mind when I think of Palm Springs and Key Biscayne. Call it March Calmness. There’s a sunny, easygoing atmosphere around the game this month, but put the two tournaments together and you’ve got the equivalent of a spring Grand Slam.
On Thursday, I’ll be joining the players for half of this Slam, in Indian Wells. I’m happy just to see the photos of the main stadium that have begun popping up on the ATP’s website. Blue sky, blue court, bright sun, desert mountains: The past has been blown away and the tennis season has arrived in earnest, which means that spring can’t be too far behind. To kick it off, here are five things to look for, consider, ponder—or just ignore, if you're so inclined—in the calmly exciting month ahead.
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How far will Djokovic’s momentum carry him?
Last year Roger Federer couldn’t use his Aussie Open win to carry him through at Indian Wells, but in 2008 and 2009 Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal did just that. The tournament was a peak moment for both, before they were brought back to earth at Key Biscayne and ended up having somewhat disappointing seasons the rest of the way.
Things shape up well for Djokovic in the desert again. As we saw in Melbourne, he likes a slow court, and Indian Wells’ may be the slowest on tour. What he doesn’t like is heat, but his current status should get him a more than his usual share of night sessions, which can be very cool. There should be nothing hindering Djokovic otherwise. He looked just as good in Dubai as he did in Australia, and he won’t be coming in after a taxing Davis Cup weekend—his team came through without him.
What’s tough about March, though, is that it’s difficult for anyone, however well they’re playing, to roll through the whole thing. Nadal has never won in Key Biscayne; in recent years, only Federer at his mid-decade peak pulled off the IW/KB double. So it’s almost certain that Djokovic’s early season surge will come to its end sometime in the next five weeks.
How far will Clijsters’ momentum carry her?
Clijsters has won these tournaments back to back in the past, and you would think that she should roll through a Williams-less draw in Indian Wells, and a Serena-less draw in Key Biscayne. But that’s a lot to ask this time around. Even though Clijsters won in Melbourne, there were traces along the way of her vulnerability, a couple of close sets that she made closer than they needed to be by letting a few errors sink her into a funk. That’s what she did in Indian Wells last year when she lost to Alisa Kleybanova in a third-set tiebreaker. The question now is: As the winner of the last two majors, will Kim finally have the confidence and fortitude to stop a bad streak before it loses her a match? That's what she did in the Aussie Open final.
What can we expect from Federer and Nadal?
Federer once owned this time of year, but he hasn’t won on the spring hard-court swing since way back in 2006. Judging from his ups and downs since the U.S. Open, he comes back to this country as a major question mark. Which is the Federer we’re going to see more of going forward, the guy who ended 2010 on such a sharply ascending note, or the guy who has looked perplexed against, and been outplayed by, Djokovic twice in 2011? Will it be the decisive attacker of the World Tour Final or the wishy-washy player who was caught between tactics in Dubai?
The slow courts at Indian Wells and nearly as slow courts in Key Biscayne won’t help, and the cool night sessions he’ll surely be scheduled to play will help even less. But on the upside, I would guess that after his last two tournaments, he and Paul Annacone and company will feel a sense of urgency about turning things back around and finding that focus and decisiveness again. He might be battling for his No. 2 ranking with Djokovic; if he didn’t like hearing No. 2 before his name, he’s not going to appreciate being announced as “world No. 3 Roger Federer.” But is he better or worse when he feels a sense of urgency?
You can sort of sense how Rafael Nadal is going to play from his mood. He came to Melbourne under the weather, with virtually no break, and never seemed altogether comfortable Down Under. That wasn’t the case this past weekend in Belgium. After a healthy post-Oz break, he seemed eager again. Last year at this time, despite an “accidental” loss to Ljubicic in Indian Wells and another shocker at the hands of Roddick in Key Biscayne, he kept telling us that he was playing well and that the results would come sooner or later—he was right. He likes Indian Wells. That comfort level, combined with his sense of Davis Cup rejuvenation, might make Nadal our favorite word of 2011 so far: ominous.
What about world No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki?
Let’s forget the majors for a second. It’s not like Wozniacki owns a ton a big second-tier titles, either. She got one in Dubai this year, and she made the final in Indian Wells in 2010. If we’re going to say that No. 1 players should win majors, that idea should go double for tournaments like these. Wozniacki lost in Melbourne, but she has shown a will and an ability to improve even since then. During the Arabian swing, she didn’t just outlast and outwit opponents, the way she always does, she outhit them. It’s a virtual lock that she’ll put herself in a good position to win either Indian Wells or Key Biscayne. But if she doesn’t get one of them, it will be a disappointment and a setback.
Who qualifies as Most Intriguing for March?
Last year this month really did get a little crazy. Ljubicic and Jankovic won in Indian Wells, and Roddick reached the final there and won in Key Biscayne. Who is most likely to succeed them? Or short of that, who should we be checking out most closely?
First we’ve got Milos Raonic. He has a wild card into Indian Wells. Let’s see how far his own Melbourne surge takes him. Do we like him on slow courts? We’ll find out soon enough.
As of this morning, I thought that Juan Martin del Potro had pulled out of Indian Wells. As my colleague Richard Pagliaro learned during a visit to Wilson, del Potro’s racquet sponsor, last week, the big guy is extremely, and justifiably, paranoid about anything to do with his wrist. But according to his latest Tweet, he'll be there. Del Potro won in Del Ray but appeared to be gassed after playing three straight days. Maybe he can get Federer to swap his night sessions with him.
Anastasia Pavlychenkova was the Indian Wells breakout of 2008, and she’s coming in off a win in Monterrey. Do we still think the young Russian has what it takes to be a big-time threat? Maybe we’ll learn something in the next week or two.
Jelena Jankovic is the defending champ and has shown signs of life among her usual jam-packed schedule so far in 2011.
Mardy Fish: He wasn’t ready for Davis Cup, but a Del Ray semifinal run seemed to set him straight. He’s been to the final here before and can end anyone’s tournament on the right day.
Finally, how about Andy Roddick? It’s obviously a time of year and surface he likes, and he’ll be riding a high after his Davis Cup weekend. What it’s done to him physically, and whether he feels any of the need to tweak his style that he seemed to feel after the Australian Open, are other stories.
Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray, Roddick, Raonic, the return of del Potro: On the men’s side, at least, March might get a little mad after all.