Forecasting the Fortnight

Did I say the high point of the year was the clay season? Well, I may have to adjust that assessment. Bill Simmons aside, I’m feeling a little more anticipation than usual for Wimbledon this year, both from inside and outside the hardcore tennis-fan community.

That anticipation is all coming from the men’s side, where there’s something of a theme emerging: Namely, is the king dead, and if so, who’s going to bury him? As they have with the clay season, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, with a little help from their cocky little brother, Novak Djokovic, have managed to elevate the drama and importance of even the most prestigious tournament in the world. I wrote a few years ago that the Nadal-Federer rivalry was likely to last because each one has what the other wants: Nadal has Paris, Federer has Wimbledon. It’s what’s still driving both guys, and what’s driving the sport of tennis overall. Here’s hoping they meet again—an entire era of tennis would come to a head if they play again on Centre Court.

There’s nothing quite so dramatic on the women’s side, just another wide-open draw and questions about each of the top contenders.

I’ll be heading to the tournament myself this weekend and blogging from the site through the first week. For now, the draws are out, so let’s see what we might be seeing over the next fortnight. Yes, I said fortnight—it’s that time of year. Savor it.

And if you're down on sportswriters, try reading a few good ones discussing the tournament here.

**The Women

First Quarter**

Ana Ivanovic has answered all possible questions, doubts, and criticisms so far in 2008, so why not throw another at her: Is she ready to go back to back, something her predecessor at No. 1, Justine Henin, could never pull off. There are some semi-obstacles in her quarter: Cibulkova, Paszek, Schnyder, Szavay, and Chakvetadze, though I wouldn’t pick any of them over Ivanovic, who made the semis here last year. Still, I think one of the big hitters will expose Ivanovic’s not-fully-formed counterpunching abilities later in the tournament.

Darkhorse: Dominika Cibulkova, who has some sporadically good results this year
Semifinalist: Ana Ivanovic

Second Quarter

Serena Williams and Svetlana Kuznetsova are slotted for the quarters here. Neither is completely predictable or reliable, but there’s no one I can find who qualifies as a threat to them. Bartoli is on Serena’s side; Cornet, Li Na, and Radwanska are on Kuznetsova’s. Of those, only Radwanska seems genuinely dangerous; she beat Kuznetsova at the Aussie Open this year. I thought Williams was ready to roll in Paris, but she misfired for two sets. Grass is more her thing; she’s won here before and is 4-1 against Kuznetsova lifetime. The Russian’s athleticism should help her on grass, but she’s never been past the quarters at Wimbledon. That’s not going to change this year.

Darkhorse: Agnieszka Radwanska, a good player who’s slowly getting better
Semifinalist: Serena Williams

Third Quarter

OK, here we have a floater who's a possible threat. Lindsay Davenport, who sat out of Eastbourne last week with a knee injury, is scheduled to meet 5th seed Elena Dementieva—yes, Elena Dementieva is the 5th seed at Wimbledon—in the third round. The winner of that may get Maria Sharapova, the top seed in the section, in the quarters. That is, if Sharapova gets past Dinara Safina, who beat her in Paris on her run to the final. Is Safina ready for a letdown after her superb clay season? This would be the place: She’s never been past the third round at Wimbledon—maybe her brother’s famous grass-court allergies run in the family.

Darkhorse: Nadia Petrova, who's in the final at Eastbourne this weekend; she’s on Sharapova’s side of this quarter.
Semifinalist: Maria Sharapova

Fourth Quarter

This is Venus Williams’ time to shine, and looking at her draw there’s no reason to think she won’t do it again in 2008. That doesn’t mean it will be easy; last year, Venus survived two early-round scares before she found her game in a big way. Are Sania Mirza, Flavia Pennetta, or Daniela Hantuchova capable of finishing her off if she has a bad day? In theory, yes, but I’m not going to bet against Venus at Wimbledon anymore. Her quarterfinal opponent may be Jelena Jankovic, the No. 2 seed—yes, Jelena Jankovic is the No. 2 seed at Wimbledon—but I don’t think grass is a good surface for the counterpunching Serb against Venus.

Darkhorse: Caroline Wozniacki, who played some good tennis in Eastbourne and is slotted to face Jankovic in the third round, unless of course she’s upset by her Canadian doppleganger, Aleksandra Wozniak, in the second
Semifinalist: Venus Williams

**Semifinals: Ivanovic d. S. Williams; V. Williams d. Sharapova

Final: V. Williams d. Ivanovic**

The Men
First Quarter

Long live the king, for the moment. His draw isn't easy, but there’s no standout spoiler in there either. Soderling has given him trouble in the past, and he might see him in the round; Monfils, in the third round, should be at his bizarre best on grass; Lleyton Hewitt has won the tournament; and Fernando Gonzalez, a potential fourth-rounder, has beaten Federer within the last year. And those guys are all in his half of this quarter. The bottom half looks pretty barren from here—Ferrer, Berdych, Ancic, Llodra are the most interesting names. Like Sampras before him, Federer is a new man each year on grass, and I expect that once he’s whipped off a couple straight-setters, he’ll have his old confidence back. If he gets Djokovic in the semis, sparks are going to fly. My prediction: Federer shows real anger. And wins.

First-round match to watch: Ancic vs. Llodra

Spoiler: Robin Soderling, who could get Federer before he’s rolling, in the second round.
Semifinalist: Roger Federer

Second Quarter

So, in case you haven’t heard, Novak Djokovic is in Federer’s half this time—don’t you just want to skip ahead to that one right now? First, Djoko’s got to get past a pair of heavy hitters, Berrer and Safin, in the first two rounds, and potentially another, Wawrinka, in the fourth. The bottom half features the lucky 10th seed, Marcos Baghdatis, and that guy again, David Nalbandian—why does that name make everyone smile and shake their heads these days? I wouldn’t be shocked if the quarterfinal pitted Djokovic against a surprisingly tough grass-courter, Feliciano Lopez.

First-round match to watch: Marcos Baghdatis vs. Steve Darcis, two solid ball-strikers

Spoiler: Ivo Karlovic—always annoying, but he lives too dangerously to win a bunch of matches in a row at a Slam.
Semifinalist: Novak Djokovic

Third Quarter

Not getting bumped up in the seedings worked out pretty well for Andy Roddick. He ended up across from Nikolay Davydenko, and in a soft-looking section of that quarter to boot—Roddick's fourth-round opponent might be James Blake. The question is: Who’s coming out of the other side? I refuse to bet on Davydenko, but that leaves, who? Mathieu? Ljubicic? I'm glad I don’t have to pick that one, because I think Roddick will beat whomever it is.

First-round match to watch: For Americans, Donald Young vs. Jesse Levine; for connoisseurs of the sour, Dmitry Tursunov vs. Nicolas Mahut

Spoiler: Jeremy Chardy—because the French can play on grass, and because I hope he doesn’t disappear
Semifinalist: Andy Roddick

Fourth Quarter

The match that must stick out to everyone right away is a potential second-rounder between Rafael Nadal and Ernests Gulbis. The Latvian Lip has to get past a theoretically-dangerous-on-grass John Isner. If he does, this will be a tricky one for Nadal. Gulbis serves big, goes for broke, and won't be intimidated—they must have a class in self-confidence at the Pilic Academy. Grass should hide Gulbis' weakness, the inconsistency of his forehand. Then again, the long swing he uses there is exploitable, if Nadal can get it there with pace. (Which he obviously can.) After that, Rafa has semi-tests against Kiefer and his old friend Youzhny. Not an easy draw, but Nadal is lucky that his potential quarterfinal opponent is Richard Gasquet, who could go down in the first round to Mardy Fish. Either way, Nadal will get stronger as he goes. This is his best chance so far to win the tournament he wants more than any other, and he’s going to start to taste it during the second week. We'll see how he reacts; he's got a pretty good track record of holding up under maximum pressure so far.

First-round match to watch: Fabrice Santoro vs. Andy Murray—this is about as crafty and exasperating as tennis gets. Fabrice, who’s playing his last Wimbledon, should get his wish and be granted a chance to play on Centre Court for the first time.

Spoiler: Sebastien Grosjean—does he have one more run to the quarters in him?
Semifinalist: Rafael Nadal

Semifinals: Federer d. Djokovic; Nadal d. Roddick

Final: Nadal d. Federer