What’s my prediction for the French Open women’s final between Serena Williams and Garbiñe Muguruza?
Tension.
It’s easy to see this match playing out much like the Wimbledon final these two women played last year, and much like the semifinals that each of them played in Paris on Friday.
If the scenario is similar on Saturday, Muguruza, as she did when she jumped to a 3-0 lead on Sam Stosur in the semis, will come out playing with nothing to lose, and control the action through the opening games. She has been sharp and in attacking mode all tournament, and after beating Serena in Paris two years ago, she knows she can impose her game on the world No. 1. One of Muguruza’s natural plays, to hit hard and down the center of the court, also happens to be an effective one against Serena, if you can do it well enough.
At the same time, it's easy to imagine Serena, who has been dealing with an adductor injury, starting the way she did against Yulia Putintseva in the quarters and Kiki Bertens in the semis: slowly, erratically, a little gingerly. In Muguruza, she’ll face a bigger and more proactive hitter than those two women. Against her, the points won’t all be on Serena’s racquet.
If that’s how the early going does play out, there will come a point, either late in the first set or sometime in the second, when Muguruza no longer feels she has nothing to lose. That’s when things will get tense, and that's when the match will be won or lost. If Muguruza builds a lead large enough that, to lose it, she would have to choke, will she be able to keep swinging freely?
She couldn't do it at Wimbledon last year. Muguruza was in control early, but never closed the first set. Only when she was down two breaks in the second set, and the match was essentially out of reach, did she relax and take control again. Now that Muguruza has had that experience once with a major title on the line, we’ll see if she's more determined not to let it happen again. If she's going to be a multi-Slam champion and future No. 1, it's not a lesson she should have to learn twice.
Of course, the match may not play out like that at all. Serena has been known to be down one day and right back up the next, and there’s no doubt she has a lot to play for. On a macro level, she wants to tie Steffi Graf’s Slam total of 22; on a more micro level, she doesn’t want to suffer the rare indignity of losing to the same player twice in three years at a major. Plus, Serena at her best is still better than Muguruza; she leads their head to head 3-1. Three weeks ago in Rome, the Spaniard lost to another hard-hitting American, Madison Keys; the next day, Serena beat Keys in straight sets.
Still, Muguruza, based on her current form and the questions around her opponent's physical state, has a good chance. She certainly sounds confident:
"I think the two best players in the tournament are [in the final]," Muguruza said on Friday.
She's right, and she doesn't sound scared to let us know that fact. It's tempting to pick the momentum-riding Muguruza to win her first Slam, but I'm not going to bet against Serena winning her 22nd.
Winner: Serena Williams