Can Fritz, Shelton and other American men go from “good clay-court players” to great ones?

Here we are, in the gut of the clay-court season, and it seems that the gloom that has lingered over the clay-court fortunes of American men like a cold and wet spring for a long period may be yielding to sunnier times.

The future is as changeable as the current season, of course, but if the Americans finally solve the puzzle of European clay, some tennis historian in search of a tipping point may well settle on a first-round match in mid-April of this year at the ATP tournament in Munich.

In that battle, Ben Shelton overcame a predictably poor start to survive a three-set war with a Croatian ranked No. 410, Borna Gojo. No great feat, at a glance, but Shelton rode the wave of confidence generated by that dogged 4-6, 7-6 (3), 7-6 (3) result all the way to the final—beating some fine clay competitors along the way. The 22-year-old became the first American man since Andre Agassi in 2002 to contest a clay-court final above the ATP 250 level.

Shelton built on that result just a week later, at the ongoing Madrid Masters 1000, which is where the business on red dirt gets serious.

“I've already played a lot of great clay-court players this year and I think I learned something from each of them, win or lose,” Shelton said on Tennis Channel after dispatching Argentina’s Mariano Navone, a gritty clay-courter, in the second round of Madrid (seeded No. 12, Shelton had a first-round bye). “I'm happy with my progression going from, you know, winning two matches on the surface the first year, playing on it more consistently, winning matches not every week, but more often.”

The U.S. women have typically fared much better than the men at this time of year, and not just because they have generally been more successful.

“The women’s game is a different story because the game they play is more similar, from surface-to-surface,” Patrick McEnroe, the television analyst and former head of the U.S. player development effort, told me in a recent conversation. He added that excessive topspin—think Rafael Nadal or the rule-proving WTA exception, Iga Swiatek—is more common in the men’s game.

The bar in recent years for the U.S. contingent has been set by Taylor Fritz—not coincidentally the only American who embraced the challenge of clay from early in his career. The commitment paid off with, among other accomplishments, a semifinal finish in Madrid last year. The 27-year-old Californian, seeded No. 3, is in the hunt again this week.

Fritz’s approach has gradually rubbed off on many of his countrymen, including Shelton, and it is beginning to show results. Technically, the clay challenge for the men begins on this side of the Atlantic, at the U.S. Clay Court Championships in Houston. But that ATP 250 attracts mostly American players (it was won by Jenson Brooksby) and it’s not played on the same type of red clay as in Europe.

The European action, culminating with the second Grand Slam of the year in Paris, begins in Monte Carlo, where five American men were entered this year. But when only Marcos Giron and No. 14 seed Frances Tiafoe won their first-round matches, and neither advanced further, it seemed like déjà vu.

The outlook hardly improved the following week in Barcelona, despite 21-year-old Ethan Quinn’s quality wins, in qualifying, over hardened clay-courters Corentin Moutet and Borna Coric. (Quinn’s big problem: running into Carlos Alcaraz in the main draw.) Sebastian Korda, who reached the fourth round of Roland Garros five years ago, won a match, but that was it.

At the same time in Munich, Learner Tien and Giron both lost in the first round, and it looked like Shelton would, too. But then came his inspired turnaround. The feat energized Shelton, and perhaps his compatriots as well.

Last year, 11 American men appeared in the main draw in Madrid. Five were seeded, two had qualified. But only three—seeds Fritz, Tommy Paul and Korda—won matches. Fritz, the semifinalist, was the only one to reach the fourth round.

At this year’s event, 12 U.S. players were in the main draw. Nine won their first matches. Brandon Nakashima, perhaps the most overlooked U.S. player, joined Fritz in the fourth round on Sunday, with No. 11 seed Tommy Paul and No. 16 Frances Tiafoe hoping to join them (their matches were postponed to Tuesday, due to the widespread power outages in Spain).

There’s no doubt that U.S. men have made progress on clay after being lulled by many years of frustration into accepting a “one and done” approach to a draw. McEnroe noted that the Americans still play fairly flat shots, but seem increasingly able—and willing—to grind out matches in a clay-court vein.

Fritz gave a great demonstration of that in his third-round comeback win over Bonzi. The Frenchman was playing out of his gourd for almost two full sets, belting winners all over the place, but Fritz remained resolute and patient. It was grinding at its finest, enhanced by Fritz playing with more “shape” (McEnroe’s word) and margin. Bonzi retired with a back injury shortly after Fritz won the second set, 7-5.

Paul, the No. 11 seed in Madrid, produced a masterpiece using his full palette of skills in his impressive second-round win in two tiebreakers over sensation Joao Fonseca. And while Shelton fell to Miami Masters champ Jakob Mensik, Nakashima heads into his match with Daniil Medvedev having not lost a set.

Paul Annacone, the Tennis Channel analyst and co-coach of Fritz, told me he thinks Shelton is figuring out how to be true to his weapons—the big serve and forehand—while being “a little bit more buttoned up” when it comes to his “rally tolerance” and shot selection.

Korda, after advancing in three sets past Federico Cina, fell to former Roland Garros finalist Casper Ruud. The American’s development has been stalled by injury. He showed flashes of brilliance in his third-round match with Ruud in Madrid but, looking far too casual, lost.

Korda has cracked the clay-court code in theory—if not practice.

“Clay is a different animal compared to other surfaces,” he told the Tennis Channel desk before meeting Ruud. “You have to be patient [on red clay], but you still have to go after it. I’m not going to get into any spinny battles from the backcourt.”

“I think they are good clay-court players,” McEnroe said of his countrymen, “but I guess the problem is that these other guys are just better for now.”