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by Pete Bodo
For a guy who's spent so much time grousing about the calendar this year that you get the feeling he'd just as soon hang up his racket during the Harvest Moon, Andy Murray has sure carried loads of ranking points and pocket money away from those cursed, we'd-love-them-if-we-didn't-hate-them fall tournaments. He's at it again.
This is funny. If it's October, and the frost is on the pumpkin and prize money is just frosting on the appearance-fee cake, you can bet your boots that Andy Murray will be be on fire. Currently, he's surfing along on a gaudy record of 17-1, going all the way back to the dog days of summer. Other than his obligatory U.S. Open semifinal loss to Rafael Nadal, Murray hasn't lost to a mortal since he goofed up against Kevin Anderson in Montreal. Yes, that Kevin Anderson, whose win over Andy Roddick in Japan the other day nearly resulted in some poor Chinese newspaperman having to retire.
What is it with Murray and fall? I know he's a "dour Scot," and autumn is the season of death and decay, what with all those falling leaves and salmon belly-up in the rivers and all that. Maybe all that puts him in a mental comfort zone, or somehow serves to inspire him. Or maybe he just plays his best when he's cranky and tired.
In 2010, Murray won his sixth Masters shield at Shanghai, and lost an overtime thriller (7-6 (6) in the third and final set) to Nadal in the semifinals of the year-end championships in London. In 2009, Murray won Valencia. In 2008, Murray went 20-1, starting at the U.S. Open, before he lost to David Nalbandian in the quarterfinals of the Paris Indoors. He won Madrid (then a fall Masters event, ultimately replaced by Shanghai) and St. Petersburg.
Murray has earned nine of his 19 singles titles indoors. The Rakuten Japan Open (Tokyo) is played at the Ariake Colosseum, an enormous tennis center that was one of the first venues anywhere to feature a retractable roof. (By the way did you know that the U.S. Open's main stadium doesn't have a retractable roof?) So you have to like his chances this week—or you would, if he didn't have Rafael Nadal to contend with. I'd hazard a guess that one of the questions Murray has asked himself over and over this week is, "Why oh why did Nadal have to choose Tokyo, instead of the gimme at Beijing, where Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is the top seed and there's nary a superstar in sight?"
If you feel sympathy for Murray and buy into the notion that like so many of the rest of us he's overworked and underpaid (at least the way he tells it), it's painful to see him locked up in what is starting to look like the No. 4 position, guaranteed-for-life. But there are concrete reasons for that, the towering one being Nadal.
The head-to-heads among the top ATP players tell a complicated and intriguing tale. Djokovic, for example, has played more matches against Nadal than has Federer—a somewhat surprising fact (Nadal leads the No. 1 player, 16-13, and he's ahead of Federer by a lopsided 17-8). Murray leads Federer, 8-6, and he's a most respectable 4-6 with Djokovic—who holds his own against Federer (14-10 in favor of Federer).
The worst H2H stat generated by this foursome is Murray vs. Nadal—the No. 2 player leads Murray by a whopping 13-4. By now, we pretty much know why this is. Murray is a charlatan; he makes a guy think he's making headway, getting into Murray's game, and then—poof!—just like that Murray turns the tables. That seemingly laser-like approach shot that tops off a meticulously crafted rally that puts Murray back on his heels becomes a technicolor nightmare as the Scot finds a backhand lob that leaves his opponent galloping toward Siberia.
But Murray can't do that to Nadal, mainly because Nadal does the same things as Murray, only better (honestly, folks, it's not rocket science). Nadal is likely to run down that backhand lob of Murray's and send it back to Murray's forehand corner with an over-the-shoulder swipe that leaves the crowd gasping. It can be as simple as that, although it would be remiss of me not to point out that the Spanish player's topspin forehand is as hard to handle as a puff adder—even for as gifted a player as Murray. It restricts Murray's options and hampers his deviousness.
The record speaks for itself, and this happens to be an emblematic year. What round did Murray reach at each of the majors after his loss to Djokovic at the Australian Open? Answer: The semis. Who did he meet on each of those occasions? I think you know the answer.
In those three Grand Slam matches, Murray took just two sets off Nadal (one each at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open). More interesting, in those matches where he won a set, he lost four sets with a two-break margin. Forget the final scores: Murray played Nadal closest at the French Open, on Nadal's beloved red-clay home court, where despite failing to win a set Murray put up a good fight and lost all three by just one break.
Unfortunately, at least for Murray fans, the evidence suggests that Nadal's stranglehold on Murray is only getting stronger, even as his mastery over certain other players is less comprehensive. Nadal triumphed over Murray the first five times they played, ending with Murray's first win—in the semis of the U.S. Open of 2008, which is a high-water mark in Murray's career. It was the first win in what would be a 4-3 run for Murray, ending when Nadal beat Murray at the ATP World Tour finals a year ago. Since then, it's been all Nadal.
The numbers are encouraging in at least one sense—it's pretty clear that the main stumbling block for Murray is Nadal. Take him out of the mix and Murray is as dangerous as any of his peers and rivals—or he was, until Djokovic caught fire at the end of last year. Given what Djokovic has accomplished this year, the maddening and baffling rout of Murray by Djokovic in the Australian Open final (in Murray's third, unsuccessful major final) must be a little easier to bear. The bad news, for Murray, is that Djokovic doesn't appear to be going away any time soon. Nor is Nadal.
But there is a ray of hope for Murray today Nadal has his own problems. His second-rounder will be a battle with ace-machine and emerging star Milos Raonic. The young Canadian got a scare from Japanese wild-card Yuichi Sugita in his first ATP tour match since Wimbledon (Raonic has been out a serious hip injury), but he managed to eke it out in a third-set tiebreaker. That will give him confidence which, combined with that huge serve, gives Nadal plenty of think about.
It's enough to make someone contemplate galloping off to Siberia.