Betting Central

Game, Set, Bet, presented by BetMGM: Denis Shapovalov vs. Taylor Fritz, Acapulco

Fritz is a Top 5 player in the world right now, but it still feels like there isn’t much that separates these two in the talent department.

ByZachary Cohen

Published Feb 28, 2023

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On Wednesday in Acapulco, we’re going to get an intriguing battle between Denis Shapovalov and Taylor Fritz. The American recently earned a career-high ranking of No. 5, and enters this matchup after having won five matches in a row and seven of his last eight. Shapovalov’s form has been less consistent, with the Canadian’s opening-round win over Miomir Kecmanovic snapping a three-match losing streak. But even though Fritz has been the sturdier of these two players, we like the value on Shapovalov.

Fritz earned a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over John Isner in the first round, all while calling for the trainer to work on his knee. That’s something that has us a little concerned heading into a meeting with Shapovalov, who ended up playing some good tennis after blowing the first set against Kecmanovic. After letting a 5-2 lead slip and losing the opener in a tiebreaker, he responded by winning the next two sets, 6-0 and 7-5.

With Shapovalov finding some semblance of form to defeat Kecmanovic, he now seems like a threat to beat a banged-up version of Fritz. Shapovalov is 4-2 in tour-level meetings between these two players, and Fritz has a lousy 30-31 record against lefties.

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Shapovalov is 4-2 against Fritz.

Shapovalov is one of the few players that has the power to hit with Fritz from the baseline, and he’s also the better mover. The outcome of this match will ultimately come down to how well Shapovalov serves, and whether he can avoid making costly errors. Notably, has generally been able to avoid beating himself in this head-to-head series.

Fritz also ran into a lot of trouble with his second serve against Isner, winning just 11 of his 28 points on that shot. That could be a problem in this meeting. The American’s break percentage in 2023 is way down at 15.7%, which is on pace to be the worst mark he’s had since the 2019 season.

Fritz is a Top 5 player in the world right now, but it still feels like there isn’t much that separates these two in the talent department. That makes it hard not to take a shot on Shapovalov at plus-money odds.

Bet: Shapovalov To Win (+115)

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