Gut Czech

The 100th Davis Cup final looks promising, don’t you think? A day before a ball has been struck, it already has three of the key ingredients that make for an entertaining sports weekend.

First and foremost, we have what looks to be a competitive tie, between defending champion Spain and the plucky Czech Republic on a fast hard court in Prague, in an arena that took less than a day to sell out.

Second, we have internal strife on the Spanish side. Big-serving Feliciano Lopez has questioned why he, rather than clay-loving teammate Nicolas Almagro, wasn’t called on to play Tomas Berdych in the opening singles rubber.

Last but not least, we have some old-fashioned trash-talking by Berdych, who seems to agree with Lopez. Yesterday Berdych had this to say about Almagro, the man whose hand he wouldn’t shake at the Australian Open in January: “If he’s nominated, he will be the weak point on which we can build our victory. He’s missing that little something that distinguishes great players from the rest.”

Try to put aside, for a second, the three words that immediately popped into your head when you read that quote—i.e., “pot kettle black.” Instead, just savor the moment. We don’t get a lot of bulletin-board material from tennis players in this most gentlemanly of eras. Think how much better Berdych just made the second singles match on Friday, when he’ll get his wish and face Almagro.

Insults aside, this tie should be good. Both teams are strong–Spain’s singles players, David Ferrer and Almagro, are ranked No. 5 and 11, respectively, while the Czechs will send out the No. 6 player in the world, Berdych, and Radek Stepanek, who has been ranked as high as No. 8. Even the doubles offers an intriguing matchup. Spain's Marc Lopez and Marcel Granollers just won the ATP World Tour Finals in London. At the moment, Czech captain Jaroslav Navratil has pencilled in Lukas Rosol and Ivo Minar to face them, but that’s obviously subject to change. In the last two ties, it was Berdych and Stepanek who teamed up to give the Czechs a crucial point. While they don’t play together all year, the Bird and the Worm make a formidable duo—they’re 11-1 together in Davis Cup.

Most important, perhaps, is the surface. The Spaniards will be off of their beloved clay for the first time this year. They beat the Czechs on red dirt the last time they played, in the 2009 final in Barcelona. That means the tables will be turned, in a big way, with the surface in Prague. Ferrer says it's as fast anything the Spanish team has played on. A neutral observer said today that it has a low bounce and is quicker than the average hard court. Berdych, for his part, says it's "perfect." No word on whether he then rubbed his hands together and laughed diabolically.

The draw was made this morning. Here’s a look at the matchups.

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David Ferrer vs. Radek Stepanek

These two veterans—Stepanek is 33, Ferrer 29—have played nine times dating back to 2004. Ferrer has won six of those matches, including the crucial five-setter in the 2009 Cup final. But that was on clay; that same year, Stepanek won a five-setter over Ferrer on Wimbledon grass. So they’ve been competitive, and they know each other’s games. Since ’09, though, they’ve gone their separate ways. Ferrer, currently ranked No. 5, has steadily improved, while Stepanek, currently ranked No 37, has steadily declined. The fast surface will favor the net-rushing Stepanek, who is 11-10 in Davis Cup singles matches, but it’s hard to bet against Ferrer, who has won two tournaments on indoor hard courts this fall, and who is the stalwart of all stalwarts in this competition. He’s 21-4 in Davis Cup, and while he won’t have Rafael Nadal to close for him, as he did in last year’s final, Ferrer has led this team without him in 2012. He’s 4-0 so far this year.

Nicolas Almagro vs. Tomas Berdych

Berdych and Lopez might have spoken out of turn, but that doesn’t mean that what they said was wrong. Berdych has won five of his last six matches against Almagro, including their notorious fourth-rounder in Melbourne, while he has lost his last two matches on hard courts to Lopez.

Weak link or not, this will be an uphill climb for Almagro. The court should favor the 6-foot-5 Berdych’s flatter, more penetrating strokes. But it isn’t a lock for the Tin Man. Does he have the heart to lead the Czechs to their first Davis Cup title in 30 years? How will he handle the pressure of being the team’s anchor, of being counted on to win in front of the home crowd? Recent history says he should be OK. He’s 21-11 in Cup singles for his career, and he was in this same situation this year in the quarterfinals, at home against Serbia. That weekend Berdych won three rubbers without dropping a set, and clinched it for the Czechs with a three-tiebreaker win over Janko Tipsarevic.

Granollers/M. Lopez vs. Minar/Rosol

These are the names currently in the lineup, so I’ll stay with them. But barring an unforeseen marathon match on Friday, there’s a good chance you’ll see Minar and Rosol replaced by Berdych and Stepanek.

Berdych has gotten his shots in here as well, at both his opponents and his teammates. At the U.S. Open, he bristled when he was mentioned in the same sentence as his fellow Czech Rosol. This week the Berdman offered a somewhat backhanded backslap to Lopez and Granollers for their London win. “You have to congratulate them,” Berdych said, “but now they’re expected to do something different, so just tell them to hurry up and prepare.”

Again, Berdych, in his harsh way, has a point. Lopez and Granollers finished the season on a high, but Davis Cup has been different for them this season. They lost both of their doubles matches for Spain in 2012. The final may ride on their performance on Saturday.

Ferrer vs. Berdych

Sunday’s first reverse singles will give us this tie’s clash of No. 1s. It’s a tough one to call. Ferrer leads their head to head 5-3, but Berdych won their last meeting, in London in 2011 (though a tired Ferrer wasn’t at his best that week). They’re ranked No. 5 and 6 in the world. Ferrer is generally the better player. Will the quickness of the surface favor Berdych, or its reported low bounce favor the shorter Ferru? Final question: Does Ferrer get tired? After all of his recent play, this might be the moment we find out.

Almagro vs. Stepanek

If Stepanek is weary by this point, would Navratil throw in Spain killer Lukas Rosol? Stepanek leads his head to head with Almagro 2-1, but the Spaniard came out on top in four sets at the U.S. Open this year. Almagro has the far higher ranking, but can’t you just see the Worm getting under his skin in front of the Czech crowd, with the Cup on the line?

As I said, this one is promising.

Winner: Czech Republic, 3-2