How will new mom Naomi Osaka fare in her 2024 return?

As we make our way toward the 2024 season—which begins Friday, December 29 with the United Cup—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions of the new year.

Second question, as a four-time Grand Slam champion comes back: How will new mom Naomi Osaka fare in her return?

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: Osaka has so many powerful weapons in her game that, in a vacuum, the 26-year-old shouldn’t have any problem getting back to competing with the WTA’s current Top 10 and Top 20. Just look at her head-to-head record against them: She’s 1-1 against Iga Swiatek, 1-0 against Aryna Sabalenka, 2-2 against Coco Gauff, 1-1 against Jessica Pegula and 1-0 against Ons Jabeur.

She has plans to play “way more tournaments” in 2024 than her usual Grand Slam and WTA 1000-focused schedule—advice that she has long ignored throughout her career, but a move that will serve to ease her back to match fitness and reacclimate her to the weekly grind.

But that demanding schedule could also prove to be a test of her motivation and commitment, requiring long stretches on the road and some tough decisions for the new mom.

Osaka has been open about her mental struggles, especially in her most recent seasons, so how she will fare in 2024 will be linked to how well she can manage herself in that regard. Perhaps having nearly six-month-old Shai around or at home might even prove to be the perfect way for Osaka to take her mind off tennis, and remind her that there’s more to life than results.  But those shouldn’t take long to come either, especially on Osaka’s preferred hard courts.

The Japanese player is back with coach Wim Fissette, who guided her to 2020 US Open and 2021 Australian Open titles. Looking at those results following the resumption of the tennis season after COVID-19 suspension—another time when Osaka was away from the game long enough to miss playing it—it seems like absence really does make the heart grow fonder. Maybe it will make her tennis stronger, too.

She has plans to play “way more tournaments” in 2024 than her usual Grand Slam and WTA 1000-focused schedule—advice that she has long ignored throughout her career, but a move that will serve to ease her back to match fitness and reacclimate her to the weekly grind.

JON LEVEY: Just fine. Few on this planet can hit a tennis ball like Osaka. Having a child certainly presents a new challenge, but it doesn’t change that fact. Besides, Elina Svitolina, Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka are recent entrants in the mom’s club, and all have shown there’s still winning to be done on the other side. Kim Clijsters is arguably the gold standard, having won three Slams after returning from maternity leave. Osaka is only 26, still well in her physical prime, so there’s no reason to think she won’t join the list.

In fact, being a working mom may even give Osaka a different perspective where her tennis is concerned. She has spoken openly about the mental toll pro tennis exacts on her psyche. A fresh outlook may translate into a more relaxed and practical approach. The pressure to win won’t feel as great, nor the losses so punishing.

That said, it will be a world of difference from her previous time on tour. She will probably have to adjust her training and tournament scheduling. Throw in the inevitable rust from her absence and it could be a gradual climb back up the ranks. Osaka has fond memories Down Under, bagging two of her Slams in Australia. But it may be more realistic to look at the spring hard courts of Indian Wells and Miami before she’s getting deep into draws. Once she finds that groove, it will be like she never left.

JOEL DRUCKER: Naomi Osaka’s return to tennis promises to be one of the biggest stories of 2024.  She will generate massive headlines way beyond the sport itself.  Every step Osaka takes will be carefully watched, studied, and dissected – not just by tennis aficionados and those who cover the sport regularly, but by a wide range of sociologists, psychologists, and perhaps also poets, novelists, playwrights, and film producers.  I hope that Osaka and all those who comprise her team are ready for all of this attention.

Beyond that, though, there’s the matter of the tennis itself.  In just over two years, Osaka swept up four Grand Slam singles titles, doing so with exceptional power and a superb ability to compete well under pressure.  Still, that last win came nearly three years ago.  So I think it’s going to take a while for Osaka to regain her best form – possibly well into the summer.  I suspect there will be losses to players who’ve never cracked the top 20.  This will require patience from both her and all who seek to analyze the state of her tennis and life.

Hopefully, Osaka will stay healthy, happy, and primed to compete week after week.  I’m also curious to see if during this time way she’s added any new techniques or tactics.  And in time, one hopes she’s in the place to compete with such top players as Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, and others in the top ten.

Wednesday's question: What would be considered a successful season for Carlos Alcaraz?