Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka: What will it take to turn their shadow rivalry into an era-defining one?

In the Madrid final in early May, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka played one of the best matches of 2024. It was a see-saw slugfest that went on for three hours. Sabalenka had three championship points, but Swiatek emerged the winner, 9-7 in a final-set tiebreaker.

Afterward, I asked the question, “Has their rivalry finally achieved lift-off?” At that point, the 23-year-old Pole and the 26-year-old Belarusian had co-dominated the tour for nearly three years. Swiatek had won four majors, Sabalenka two. They’d played several competitive matches against each other at important tournaments. They’d spent most of that time ranked No. 1 and 2. Maybe most important, each played an ultra-athletic, no-holds-barred brand of modern power-baseline tennis.

But something was missing—and still is.

The summer of Swialenka, or Sabatek, failed to materialize.

The biggest missing element was a Grand Slam final: They had never met in one, and they still haven’t. In fact, only one of their 12 encounters, Swiatek’s three-set win in the 2022 US Open semis, has come at a major. It also hasn’t helped that they’ve tended to play their best at different times, and on difference surfaces. When one of them is in form, the other is slumping or injured. General sports fans know who each of them is, but you rarely hear their names said together, in the same breath, the way you do with all great tennis rivalries. Even newcomers Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are better known as a pair than Swiatek and Sabalenka.

The Madrid final seemed, finally, to promise something more. With potential clashes in Rome and Paris coming up right away, and Wimbledon, the Olympics and the US Open following in rapid succession over the summer, there were plenty of major stages where Swiatek and Sabalenka might meet. How long could the WTA be ruled by two players who never had a chance to settle things on the court?

Fast forward to today and, unfortunately, we’re still asking the same question. The summer of Swialenka, or Sabatek, failed to materialize. They did play each other twice, but both were one-sided duds: Swiatek won 6-2, 6-3 in Rome, Sabalenka won 6-3, 6-3 in Cincinnati. The latter wasn’t even a final. Otherwise, each vanished as the other popped up again.

Swiatek, as she has in the past, dominated on clay, won five titles in the first six months of 2024, looked like the clear No. 1 player in the world, and then…didn’t win anything after Roland Garros. She lost in the third round at Wimbledon, the semis at the Olympics, and the quarters at the US Open. She’s the face of the WTA, but she has still reached just one major final (the 2022 US Open) outside of Paris.

This time, though, Swiatek finally had enough of her yearly rise and fall. She split with longtime coach Tomasz Witkorowski and skipped the Asian swing, including its two mandatory 1000s in Beijing and Wuhan.

Sabalenka, meanwhile, began her mid-season ascent as Swiatek fell off. She was injured for Wimbledon and the Olympics, but the break ended up doing her good. She acclimated herself to U.S. hard courts early, then blew through Cincinnati, the US Open and Wuhan last week.

After all of that, the two women have been left in a near tie with one event to play. Swiatek leads the rankings, which measure the last 12 months, 9785 to 9716. Sabalenka has the edge in the 2024 race, 9091 to 8285. Together, they’ve left the rest of the WTA in the dust. No. 3 Coco Gauff is many miles behind, with 5973 points.

The year-end No. 1 ranking will be decided at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, starting November 2. As the defending champion, Swiatek will have to win the title, and hope Sabalenka doesn’t make the final, to stay No. 1. Sabalenka can clinch the top spot just by reaching the final.

What can we take away from this odd shadow rivalry?

First and foremost, the tennis season is long. Not too long, in my opinion, or filled with too many mandatory events, like Swiatek says. But at 10 months (11 for the men) it’s long enough that even dominant players will have peaks and valleys. Very few pros in recent years—Serena and the Big 3, basically—have managed to stay in form all the way through. Swiatek and Sabalenka, as brilliant as they’ve been, haven’t been able to match that consistency in 2023 or 2024.

On the one hand, it’s hard to blame them. On the other, it would be nice if they could find their way to more finals together, and give this WTA era a defining long-term struggle. There have been recent, positive signs on this front from both women.

Sabalenka has discovered that even a short break from the tour can help her game; she doesn’t have to be away for long. Even when she’s winning routinely, she puts a ton of emotion and effort into every match, every swing, every grunt. Her results this summer and fall should prove to her that, with the right, refreshed mindset, she can be the world’s best player.

Swiatek’s coaching change may require a transition period, but it’s also a chance for what appears to be a much-needed reset. Watching her in matches, as well as in practices with Witkorowski, she’s quick to judge herself harshly, to become frustrated over a technical issue, to get bogged down in the details of her swing. Some days her attitude seems fatalistic, as if she thinks a slow start means it’s just not her day. Hopefully, she can work with someone who helps her see the big picture, rather than the little ones, and helps make the sport fun.

In both of their cases, schedule management is paramount. Sabalenka knows now she should get her breaks in when needed, and Swiatek may not want to front-load her calendar so much. She likes to play the non-mandatory events in Doha and Dubai in February, but not the mandatory ones in China in October. She also wants to make the most of her clay-court game, so she typically plays Stuttgart, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros in short order in the spring. By the time she leaves Paris and has to switch to grass right away, she’s burned out.

Can Iga dominate clay, while also staying fresh for Wimbledon and the US Open? As she says, the fact that the spring and summer WTA 1000 events—Madrid, Rome, Canada, Cincy—are expanding to 12 days won’t make it easier.

The good news is that the WTA has a pair of players who have reached the top, remained there, and not retired. The better news would be to see them start to face off in Grand Slam finals. Maybe a season-ending showdown in the Riyadh finale can create an exciting close to 2024—and give their rivalry a liftoff into 2025.