Will Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff collide in the Indian Wells final?

Iga Swiatek vs. Marta Kostyuk

The 22-year-old Swiatek and the 21-year-old Kostyuk came up in the juniors at the same time. It was Kostyuk who got off to the faster start. At the 2017 Australian Open, she won the girls’ title, while Swiatek fell in the first round. The following year, at 15, Kostyuk became the youngest player since 1997 to reach the third round at a Slam.

Since then, of course, it’s been all Swiatek. She won her first major in 2020, rose to No. 1 two years later, and beat Kostyuk in their only meeting as pros, 6-3, 6-4 at Roland Garros in 2021. During that time, the Ukrainian failed to crack the Top 30 or beat anyone in the Top 10. Kostyuk clearly has the ball-striking skills to do more, but she has also had a tendency to sabotage herself with negativity when she doesn’t live up to her expectations.

But all of that has changed for her so far in 2024. Kostyuk made her first Grand Slam quarterfinal, at the Australian Open; she reached the final in San Diego; and she has now made her first WTA 1000 semifinal. When it comes to flat pace and big cuts from the baseline, she can stay with just about anyone on the right night.

Can she stay with Swiatek? Their one meeting was a bit trickier than the straight-set scores might indicate; Swiatek was never able to get into romping mode, the way she so often does, especially on clay. And while the courts in Indian Wells are slow, they should help Kostyuk more than the dirt in Paris did.

This could be the next step for Kostyuk, but I’m going to guess she’s not quite ready to take it. Iga has been pretty sharp in Indian Wells, and she has survived a test, from Caroline Wozniacki. Winner: Swiatek

Coco Gauff vs. Maria Sakkari

The American and the Greek are very familiar with each other’s games. Since 2020, they’ve played seven times—once in 2020, twice in 2021, twice in 2022, and twice in 2023. They appear to be keeping that tradition alive in 2024.

What do those previous matches tell us? While Sakkari leads 4-3 overall, Gauff began to turn the tables during her great run over the second half of 2023. She beat Sakkari in D.C. and Beijing, both times on hard courts, and both times in straight sets.

This week, each has made the semis of a WTA 1000, so they must be doing something right. But neither has been flawless, or anything close to it. Gauff needed a third-set tiebreaker to beat Clara Burel in the second round, and coughed up 17 double faults in just 10 service games in the quarterfinals. For her part, Sakkari has needed to go three sets in three of her four matches, against three players ranked outside the Top 20. This will be the third straight day of play for both women, and judging by their last two matches, their form could range from brilliant to awful.

If Gauff is serving competently, she has the advantage. Sakkari is a great athlete, but Gauff is faster, steadier, and hits a more penetrating backhand. When she faced her toughest opponent, Elise Mertens, she brought her best tennis of the year so far. Winner: Gauff