Indian Wells men’s preview: Can returning champs Djokovic, Nadal fend off rising Sinner, Alcaraz?

The old guard, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, return to the BNP Paribas Open to take on new champs like Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Who has the inside track to the title? Our men’s preview.

BySteve Tignor

Published Mar 05, 2024

Top 10 Hot Shots: Indian Wells

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These days, when you tell an ATP player that a tournament is mandatory, you don’t have to tell him twice. The tour’s Top 32 will all be present and accounted for at the BNP Paribas Open, the first Masters 1000 of 2024. That includes No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic, who hasn’t played here since the Before Times of 2019.

Here’s a look ahead at what Djokovic and his fellow contenders will face as they they chase $12 million in prize money at this newly expanded event.

Full BNP Paribas Open men's singles draw.

Djokovic waves goodbye to fans after his third-round exit at Indian Wells in 2019. Five years later, the five-time champ will make his return to the desert.

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First Quarter

Djokovic returns to California with a rare hint of doubt attached to his game. The last time we saw him, he was losing at the Australian Open for the first time in six years. Maybe more significantly, he’ll turn 37 in a little more than two months. Put those two facts together, and Djokovic isn’t the obvious favorite for the title at Indian Wells, despite being a five-time champion there. Then again, he wasn’t the obvious favorite when he returned to Cincinnati last year after losing the Wimbledon final, and we walked out of there a winner.

Djokovic should like what he sees in his quarter. No. 30 Tomas Martin Etcheverry is the first seed he could face. After that, he might play Tommy Paul or Ugo Humbert. And his most likely quarterfinal opponent will be either Casper Ruud or Hubert Hurkacz. None of those guys has done much damage against Djokovic in the past.

Also in this section: 2021 Indian Wells champ, and 28th seed, Cameron Norrie

Potential second-round American showdown: No. 17 Tommy Paul vs. Alex Michelsen

Semifinalist: Djokovic

Taylor Fritz, the 2022 Indian Wells champion and a Southern California native, took home the Delray Beach title last month.

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Second Quarter

Daniil Medvedev, as we know, doesn’t like the hard courts at Indian Wells. Thinks they’re a disgrace, because they’re so slow. Doesn’t even consider them hard courts, in fact, and he would know, because he’s a hard-court specialist. But is his attitude due for a change? Once upon a time, the Russian railed against clay, but last year he went ahead and won the title on the red dirt in Rome. And even after all of his complaining in 2023, he made it to the final in Indian Wells.

The only problem is, Medvedev isn’t coming in on a hot streak the way he was 12 months ago. Instead, he’s probably still in recovery from his five-set loss in the Australian Open final. His third-round opponent, Sebastian Korda, who has beaten him in the past, could be a problem. Other contenders in this quarter include No. 7 seed Holger Rune and 2022 champ Taylor Fritz.

Then there’s Rafael Nadal. The former No. 1 and annual houseguest of owner Larry Ellison will start with a tough one against Milos Raonic. Rafa is 8-2 against the Canadian, but nothing is likely to come as easily as it once did for the 37-year-old Spaniard in 2024.

Potential second-round match to watch: No. 26 Lorenzo Musetti vs. Denis Shapovalov. One-handed backhand fans, get there early.

Semifinalist: Fritz

Winning the Australian Open and Indian Wells back to back is the kind of thing the Big 3 used to do in their heyday. Is Sinner of their ilk, or will he be more up and down—i.e., human—than they were?

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Third Quarter

Yes, the return of Djokovic and Nadal to the desert is the headline this week, but Jannik Sinner’s performance will be just as interesting. Winning the Australian Open and Indian Wells back to back is the kind of thing the Big 3 used to do in their heyday. Is Sinner of their ilk, or will he be more up and down—i.e., human—than they were? We may get an idea over the next two weeks.

Sinner has what looks to be a manageable draw. He’ll start against either Thanasi Kokkinakis or Marcos Giron. He could play Jan-Lennard Struff and Ben Shelton in the next two rounds. His possible quarterfinal opponents include Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, or Frances Tiafoe. Speaking of Rublev, how quickly will he be able to put his default in Dubai behind him? I’m guessing it might take a couple of weeks.

First-round all-American match to watch: Chris Eubanks vs. Brandon Nakashima

Potential second-round match to watch: No. 5 Andrey Rublev vs. Andy Murray

Semifinalist: Sinner

Zverev, who defeated Alcaraz in Melbourne, has landed in the Spaniard's section once again.

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Fourth Quarter

Last year most of us expected Carlos Alcaraz to roll through the field on the slow hard courts at Indian Wells, and he did. His win over Medvedev in the final was Peak Carlitos.

What should we expect from him in 2024? The potential for a second straight title is certainly there, but the last 12 months have shown us that the potential for an early exit from Alcaraz is also there as well. He’s as electric as ever, but these days he has a habit of overloading and short-circuiting on all that juice.

Alcaraz will begin his title defense against either Luca Van Assche or Matteo Arnaldi. He could play Felix Auger-Aliassime and an in-form Karen Khachanov in the two rounds after that. And an Alex—Zverev or De Minaur—may be waiting in the quarterfinals. Zverev beat Alcaraz in the same round in Melbourne, and De Minaur is coming off a title run in Acapulco.

Semifinalist: Zverev

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